Bill is talking about the recent move by Bodog.   That would be totally anonymous play.

A bit of add perspective for you.   Kim Lund was half of the Bobsey twins on a site I first frequented — PokerRoom.  He did what Bill does — plan, interface, promote.

I said:

Having played at Kim’s old home, I understood community. A lot of friends were successful grinders. At the time that translated mostly to 2-4 or 3-6. Yet every day many would meet in the lobby at around 4 p.m. so the Brits and Yanks could get a S&G going to harass the loser for the next 24.

That type of culture was similar to the blogger world I then inhabited. There were regular schedules of private tournaments that were very well attended by people not really looking hard at the ROI. It was better players than most would ever see in a MTT at that level.

The reason people play is not exclusive. I would guess not a few muti-accounters did it to avoid the light and have some fun without comments.

We used to do silly things that made little monetary sense. I remember getting $10 free for not being on a site for a while along with some others I knew. We had a contest to see who could get the most in a month. Try and explain how several serious grinders got caught up in it.

With the info that sites can mine, there are a lot of promotions that make little sense beyond the class of people that it makes sense too. And, sites haven’t figure that out and maintain their shotgun approach.

Hate to steal from another site — even when it is my words.  But it will bring you up to speed on my view.

What has really happened was Black Friday.  Not as we see it but as a site might.   The management at other sites drooled.  All of a sudden, the top two U.S. facing juggernauts were out of the picture.   The idea for the survivors was to make hay while the cloud sun did its thing.

Well, that didn’t just happen and fall into their hands.  Old problems didn’t go away.  Exponential growth affected few. Problems for other seemed to get worse.   Yup, Bodog was sucking hind tit again.

Let me go back.  Kim managed to do more than other manager with bathrobes — honest, I am not making this up — than others could with a five-figure budget.  I am not saying they were perfect.  Their support operation was beyond lousy in an arena where lousy abounds.  But, he did manage to get inside the heads of a lot of players and coax them his way with limited resources expended.

An analog to the S&G’s I described above were little MTT’s called blogger tournaments.  There were a host of them at various levels that never made sense to those outside the loop.  Let me digress.  When that Friday hit, I’d been killing a stupid little Stud8 tournament for months.  Luck did not explain away my killing it.  I’d found a +EV way to succeed.  Well, blogger tournament and those S&Gs mentioned, aren’t +EV.   You have a better/worse shark:fish ratio in them.  Yet, in their heyday they were considered a must by many.  People doing things for ulterior motives isn’t anything new.

In the heyday, every site promoted the WSOP.   PokerStars figured that didn’t fill folks Jones for tournaments.  They weren’t alone but they built on it while other looked at bottom lines and, instead, pulled back.  People are still willing to promote some WSOP seats.  None promote the PokerStars circuit that has given them legs.  Why?  Well that is “the competition” doncha know.  They keep that going even knowing that the WSOP (Harrah) will shortly be all the competition they can handle and more.  Promoting the Euro/Asian/SA circuits might make sense if they bothered to look at their customers.  If a guy wants one of those circuits, why not make it possible instead of sending him to P* to play?

It is simple things like that which are beyond ignored.   Tomorrow we will do what we did today.  Nevermind we are doing it with less in customers, rake and whatever.  It is good enough and what others do.   In doing so they ignore more data than even Amazon garners.  But, Amazon mines the data better.   Amazon figures out what works; Bodog comes up with anonymous tables.  Wow!  WTG, Bodog.

ADDENDUM:

Here is a PokerRoom bathrobe example:

There was a guy in the forum promoting 3-9.  I think his name was Sikillu or such and the hand he called “The Sik”.  Bloggers will easily identify with 2-7 silliness that has abounded — THE HAMMER.   Anyway, Kim set up a promo.  The site tracked hand that played 3-9 and won.  Progress was posted.   In the end,. somebody won a PokerRoom bathrobe.  It generated playing crap hands in ring games.  It added rake.  It got more people playing.  It cost a $20 bathrobe.

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CERUS SAYING THEY WILL PAY OUT.  When it hit I played like it was fun money and lost a fair amount.  But there’s close to 200 left.  I hadn’t thought about dumping vs a bit of fun vs all the same in the end.

(MOHAWK TERRITORY OF KAHNAWAKE – October 27, 2011) – Since the actions taken by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York (the “SDNY”) on April 15, 2011, the Commission has been in close and regular discussions with its licensee, Blanca Games Inc. (“Blanca”), operating as Absolute Poker and UB.com (“AP/UB”), to facilitate the reimbursement of both US and non-US players. The Commission has also received regular updates of discussions between AP/UB and the SDNY.
Over the past several weeks, we were advised of a potential solution prepared by Blanca and its representatives, establishing a process to liquidate Blanca’s assets and distribute proceeds to players. We understand that this process has been presented to SDNY for consideration and approval.
The Commission’s foremost concern in this matter has been, and remains, the reimbursement of both US and non-US players, as quickly and completely as possible.
To avoid further prejudice to affected players, the Commission has demanded that all parties complete their discussions and implement a reimbursement solution without further delay.

Nice surprise.  Everybody from Negreanu on down has heaped dirt on the UB/Absolute crowd.  It will be funny if that one pays out and FT languishes.

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It isn’t a Very Josie kind of tournament is it?   (OMG, I accommodated the link monkey. Ersatz screams of pleasure must follow.)  It does look like a money maker for the prudent (woose according to vj) that plays based on level and the game adjustments necessary.   The shorter ones are likely going to be donk laden.  It is something I’d have some fun experimenting with.  But, forget about that these days.

It was back at the start of poker time on the Internet that I signed up with Poker *.   As I recall, I was still playing mostly at PokerRoom.  Yes, it had words run together and imbedded caps.  That seems to have been copied ad nauseum. They had forum that was a free-for-all.  One of the guys made an offer to get the affiliate money and it was there or possibly for Party.  Both are rooms that give out a free $50 and also do the same for the affiliate or did at the time.  He offered to ship $30 of that to the player.  So, I went along.

Moving years forward,  I couldn’t see him continuing to prosper on my rake.  I’d left working for PokerWorks but had some loyalty to Linda and they did give back some freerolls and such.  So, I wanted to change and sent an email telling *s to cancel the account so I could register a different affiliate.

I got an email back that denied that request.  Then, it went on to say that if I cancelled the account, I could NEVER play there again.  With the site still around, that wasn’t the best threat to make.  Like Dirty Harry, I said “Make my day.” and told them to go ahead.  So, if there weren’t idiots in Washington and in NY southern district, I still wouldn’t have the chance to try their time tournament.  Oh well!  Back to tiddly-winks and mumbly-peg.  No time tournaments for this sinner.

Full Tilt wasn’t the only stupid site.  I left *s to play on UB where I had a ton of bonus and they didn’t clear it over time.  I picked up a lot of cash from that and benefited.  Did lose some in the shutdown but still up overall.  Stars lost many hundreds in the process.  Now that is stupid poker.

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I think we’ve all identified friends in the sites.  It has been some ongoing fun to promote one or the other as somehow part of who we are.  That’s probably why we’ve been so irate at the failed sites.   It almost like a drinking buddy from down the street gets perp-walked past our front door.

Jesse May is one of those people who has gone through a bit of that and ended up looking in that mirror we try to ignore at times.  He has a post up where he’s also hard on himself.  He not any more culpable than many who took Caesar’s salt — that early Caesar or it might be the host of recent ones.    But, it is damn refreshing when contrasted to the crap from Furst that I mentioned the other day.

Gambling is all about getting your hand in the other guys pocket.  Most of us did/do it for a bit of fun with disposable income.   Others though take it to the business level.  The business level is a nasty place.    While we are good at separating business friends and the like from our real friends, we haven’t really faced up to this with the gambling ones.

Those who are expressing their shock/disappointment/anger with what has gone on really need to ask themselves why they are where they are.   Jessie May did and found an answer that more honest about it than most are coming up with.

My poker friends are bloggers.   Just people.  They aren’t the guys I saw on TV.  Mike and Daniel might be great guys but they need to put themselves ahead and stick with that limited set of their real friends too.  That means not making waves.   We’re all good at that to varying degree.

I not any sadder or wiser as this all plays out.  What really matters are the things we already knew.  We’ve made exceptions for this gambling scene and may need to remind ourselves of that from time to time.  It isn’t who we are; its been just a bit of fun that a collection of scumbags can’t take away.

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PokerNews sent me to a site I wasn’t following.  It is a so-so affiliate-slash-ads site designed for betters more than poker players.  They interviewed T. J. and it goes:

Full Tilt Poker never intended to pay its client base according to long time poker pro T.J. Cloutier.

“From what I understand, Full Tilt never had any intention of repaying these people,” Cloutier told Covers.com. “This whole thing is ridiculous.”

When an article starts with a misquote, expectations are low.  The author doesn’t disappoint. Without the current frenzy, it is forgettable.  PokerNews referenced it only based on the misquote of  T.J. who was smart enough to qualify his remark and make it meaningless.

Too bad he didn’t maintain his superior standards with:

From what I’ve heard, they mixed players’ money with their own profits. They used it for marketing and other things, and they were giving people like Phil Ivey unlimited credit lines without getting the money for it, which is all illegal as hell.

Lines of credit are extended to whales by entities trading and required to work in an at least quasi-legal fashion.  In the earliest days online, a site went belly up (Dutch Boyd’s PokerSpot) for mixing funds and walked away free.  Casinos write off bad lines of credit and it is a deduction allowed.

The article is on a site trying to be a Judas goat for sheepdom.  Those aren’t high standards and they meet expectations.  Without the ongoing furor around FT, it is a really bad article/interview.

Poker really needs to find a new, hot topic.  Like the 6 o’clock proves again and again, drama trumps facts.

ADDENDUM:

The same PokerNews article gave us:

Poker doesn’t lend itself to duplicate play.  There was a site just after the UIGEA that tried to pull it off.  I was paid to blog at the time and went there to support our affiliate marketing.   It was boring and it wasn’t really poker.  The reason for that is our ongoing dilemma that is proven when we argue hand histories ad nauseum.   Poker provides too many ways to skin the cat. Dumb one moment is genius the next.

As this guy can explain,  different skill sets allow for different options.

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If this appeals to you, sign the petition.

OK, these aren’t my favorite people in poker.  There interests are there interest which may or may not translate to your interest.   Signing is your decision.  I did.  My thought is half a loaf…

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The Alderney Gaming Commission has turned off Full Tilt.  Their announcement is here.   It basically shuts them down. When I try to load them, it never gets beyond the attempt to connect.  This is a preliminary suspension and the commission will hold hearings on July 26th.

The rumor was that Jack Binion was a potential investor in Full Tilt.  That would have given them the funds to pay the U.S. customers.  Jack would have received an unknown ownership percentage.  Conjecture is that this news has killed that deal.  Killed?  In its present form, yes.  As a full acquisition. that would provide Alderney with a clean owner. That smacks as similar to what UB tried to put across when they 'sold' their property to the Grand Chief.

Binion is a savvy businessman in an industry that is used to operating at the soft edge of legal.  He has at least a business/personal relationship with at least some of the parties involved in Full Tilt.  These entities are comfortable with the gentlemen's agreements that are part of the gambling lifestyle.  It is conceivable that this could make the investment into an acquisition — possibly even in fact.  

The question is would his investment be prudent based on the additional damage. There is no way to tell.  But, I am sure Jack's accountants are on it.

May we all live in interesting times.

Bill Rini was my original source.  He's less optimistic than I am and might be right.

To Howard and friends: all I can say is, "Variance is a bitch."

ADDENDUM:

Here is the Top 3 graphic from Pokerscout.com.   The FT shutoff is obvious.  I wonder what they will title tomorrow's graph.

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I have been occasionally playing the noon HORSE freeroll on Carbon.   It isn’t the same game as that little Stud8 tournament I regularly played on UB.  It should be closer than a NL Hold’em tournament would be.  Yet it doesn’t play anything like it.

My way of playing and doing rather well in the Stud8 tournament was controlling my aggression based on the tournament phase.   And that’s another way of mentioning blind progression.  At UB I had good notes and was able to genotype many of the players.  In a freeroll, your chance of seeing a player you recognize is slim and even then it isn’t likely you’ll get notes with a lot of value.

I haven’t lived up to my expectations in the HORSE freeroll.  I was playing a lot of HORSE a while back — mostly ring.  The HO part I play fairly tight and I consider it my weaker games.  I’m not quite a brick there but it isn’t that far removed.

That HORSE game plays with a lot more aggression/stupidity/blindness.  I’m use to that and usually appreciate their willingness to build a pot.   To many is a negative but one I can live with.   That said, I haven’t done particularly well on this site.  I think I’ve played four of these and made only one marginally acceptable run. I could wax poetic or irate at some of the coolers but that isn’t close to the reason.

The thing about the UB game is that I expected success and had grounds to believe it.  My losing streaks were short; my money and often wins were above the norm.  The only time I was ever as comfortable was with a NL rebuy honeypot I found on the old TonyG site I played while working for them.  I told one friend about it and it was so good she begged me not to tell others.   The reasons there were different though.

The reason here is the structure.  You start with 1000 instead of 1500.   The blinds go up every 7 minutes instead of 12.   That is huge.   10 versus 12 minute blind is huge.  So, throwing in the starting stack, this is giganormous or whatever.The game plan I had on UB is totally out the window.  I can try to adopt and will; but the change will never give me the benefit I had.  Even if I manage to get some money on the site, it won’t be ever quite as good with their 10 minute blinds.

Time has taught me there is a real difference between even 9 and 10 minutes.  And, I have to admit that it something I often ignore.  After all, the site determines that so you ‘get used to’ what is available.  Sometimes it seems close enough that I won’t fully adjust.  Playing this little freeroll has emphasized that leak.

ADDENDUM:

In the “it never rains but…” category, a US appeals court has determined that Cloney Gowen’s suit against FT was wrongly dismissed.  Got to think variance is a bitch.  FT has gone from cash cow to ow! ow!

***************

Here is an interesting take on piracy.

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The operative in the title is KNOW.  Know infers knowledge and knowledge relates to using mental processes to make good decisions.  So, it was a bit of a shock to finally be told that for an extended period Full Tilt was not bothering to get the money from those depositing.  A guy would show up and need fish feed.   He’d go through the process of sending them money.  He’d see his account was credited and 95% of them would proceed to lose the money in that account.  OK, nothing much to see here.

The thing is that Full Tilt couldn’t get the guys money.  In effect they were backing him.   Chad Ellie who worked with Utah banker John Campos — both indited — had lost ability to move funds.  So what a good CEO to do?  In this case, absolutely nothing.  They let 60-million onto the site without a dime to show for it.  Now, past seizures had eroded all the sites.   But, in only Poker* case were prudent practices continuing to protect the player’s deposits. That likely curtailed or halted distribution to shareholders.

Bill Rini looked at it inside-out (pun intended, weak though it is) and decided that Uncle Tilty Ray Bitar, CEO of Full Tilt Tiltware isn’t very bright — well, DUH!  OK, Bill worked there and has better grounds than we do; so will make that a lower case duh.  Really, I can see a couple of days of allowing payment to be postponed but this is getting ridiculous.    Any CEO can shoot themselves in the foot; but, Ray went with an assault rifle with a banana clip to the tune of 60-mil.  Greed can bring about great stupidity.

I could go on about the 5 estates the feds are seeking forfeiture on but Forbes has it all.   Before it is over, Ray’s underwear may go on auction like Bernie Madoff’s.  What is my bid?  Ray’s will getting government issue and deserves to lose his shorts.

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FT has a comment:

“Contrary to his sanctimonious public statements, Phil Ivey’s meritless lawsuit is about helping just one player – himself. In an effort to further enrich himself at the expense of others, Mr. Ivey appears to have timed his lawsuit to thwart pending deals with several parties that would put money back in players’ pockets. In fact, Mr. Ivey has been invited — and has declined — to take actions that could assist the company in these efforts, including paying back a large sum of money he owes the site. Tiltware doubts Mr. Ivey’s frivolous and self-serving lawsuit will ever get to court. But if it does, the company looks forward to presenting facts demonstrating that Mr. Ivey is putting his own narrow financial interests ahead of the players he professes to help.”

Yesterday, I talked about who I thought Phil Ivey is and was.  FT disputes my conclusion.  They also mention a few things I find interesting about “red” pros in general and accommodations that you ahd I will never see.   FT-wise we share that with Clonie Gowen who thought one thing but reality provided a different result.

1. Many, all or some Red pros have been given interest in FT.
2. Lines of credit are provided that don’t relate to one’s maximum deposit allowance for day or week.
3. FT accounting resembles a poker room favor more than standard accounting practices.
4. I thought it was complimentary that an individual benefited from “looking out” for his reputation  which seems a negative at FT.

Who is broke?  Who is “good for it” with their markers?  Verbal contracts are harder to enforce.  Casinos and players live with this all the time.   Listed companies don’t have such latitude.  Listed companies have fiduciary responsibilities not required of gamblers entrepreneurs.

FT talks about their making good and that was the case on any number of past occasions where funds were seized at a processor or the processor skipped with the funds.  They could do that because of the great money flow.  On top of that, it appears that distribution of profits were made without attention to ongoing capital requirements.

Even when the laws seem strict, we see people and corporations work the system.  The government even steps in to bail out some of the flagrant ignores of laws.  Gamblers exist well beyond Las Vegas.  But, even those beyond Las Vegas have a lot more work to work the system.

Online poker was a meteor like the Internet itself.  Both seem to have proven themselves to have been bubbles for various reasons.  Hopefully, the government will face reality and impose its control.  That would allow viable companies, like the majority of well run Internet companies, to proceed in contributing to our nations hoped prosperity.

The questions seems to be whether or not FT is such an operation.  We’ll know at some point.   But, at this point, we have to acknowledge that their past business practices will make that very difficult.

Ivey’s suit and pique really don’t seem very important in the long term.  It is garnering a lot of comment but is more about PR for all involved parties.  How that plays out won’t mean much in the end. We saw the Clonie issue play out in a similar manner.

We went from strong competition to almost none.  That allowed flawed, poorly run companies to appear to compete.  FT may be such a company.    What is possibly marketable is its player base.  That has been seriously eroded.  Players are likely to get paid because that value is currently greater in such a liquidation.

On the other side of the coin,  Poker* seems very capable of remaining viable in the long term.  Their marketing has been long directed into overseas market very effectively.  They’ve used developing regional tournaments to enhance their position.   And, they showed they had a much tighter operation that easily met their capital requirement when the payout necessity arose.

Nobody can say what the future hold.  But, my view of FT and UB differs only in degree.  Both seem to have been shoddily run.  While Phil and friends might be fine poker players, they didn’t exhibit similar business skills and should seek to move on with the least possible fuss.

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