Archives: 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

9/29 Fri

B: MLNM 140 1/8 (Cash 20%)

Big seller showed up and drove prices down. These seldom hold and I'm expecting MLNM to act well in the face of the increased inventory. There is a split next week with some potential to help or at least stabalize things. I am paying more attention to the high of yesterday than the impact of today. The postion was 1/3rd weight and I added 1/3rd. So, I'm not really betting the farm here. Not the bottom! down below 145 at 1:33.

Well, those intentions below look a bit crippled. AAPL threw a monkey wrench into the EOM window dressing. Have a hope that the analysts are all out there yelling "Company Specific" and we can have the day I was hoping for. That great ADBE buy (snicker) is down 10 1/2 on 3500 shares as I write. I am usually dumb--but not that dumb. Selling in the premarket is usually dumb to the dowside and smart to the upside. It is an amateur fleecing program. 80% of the time the move is overdone.

With the futures underwater, my contrarian side is optimistic. The futures have lied to us for weeks. And the amount they are down suggests that the loss should be limited to them. 48 points on the Dow here is about the amount AAPL's price suggests. (swiped that from Metamarkets)

MLNM is also underwater in the premarket--evidently from a Fools article that stated the obvious. IMO, The Motley Fool site is the poorest site to try to make money from on the Internet. It even gives dumb money the edge. They hold into declines that are obvious. This is the same site that was in love with IOM and couldn't sell it when they should. If you need a site where they can't sell it when they should, read this site. I at least get out when the fat lady sings. Ok, it wasn't the fools it was a 5.5M share offering.

Intend to reduce today as the EOM window dressing runs out. This will be the BBH and the QQQ and anything unusually strong for the day.

Thursday was a 3% up day. I am still down a bit over 5% for the month...going into Friday. I went out of the day on my portfolio high and it is continuing up in the aftermarket.

9/28 Thu

B: ADBE 160 13/16 (Cash 23%)

Buy in last 10 minutes as it takes out old high. Buying highs hasn't worked very well of late. We will see.

The GZTC sell was wrong...up big today...

I ended up a few bucks up for the day after being up 2% early. Another bummer; is there an echo...cho...oo

Failing rally seems the key here. Volume was up on this decline. This was another bearish decline day. The Nasdaq missed being a distribution day by .1% but that's good enough for me. It is time to reduce more. I'm think all cash would be the smartest move but I just might hedge back into USPIX instead to start. I'd thought about doing that today.

Believe it or not the McCellan indicator has gone neutral here and approaches overbought territory without a real rally. I looked closely at the Comp and honestly can't come up with a positive on the daily chart. Not quite as sick on the weekly ones. Money stream is under water on all of them. OBV doesn't look as cooked though. The back of my mind is saying 2200 may happen before it is done. Not in one step but it really looks like one possibility for the bear's last gasp. My guess is we end up on this move at 3200 or below.

YHOO looks like it hit climax selling and is ripe for a pullback buy. But, my heart isn't in it. That kind of sums up my attitude. For all the reporting of Bullish sentiment it hasn't truly permiated this room for a good while. Ever time I remotely think Bull I get savaged. The difference here is it's position against it's moving averages. It has fractured all of them and they overhang this stock and make for a temple of doom.

9/27 Wed

B: GZTC 30 5/16 S: GZTC 31

Trying a day trade here with a limit sell entered at 32. Got antse over the action and took the quick profit. I went overweight on the buy and didn't want to risk the nice little profit. Yes, it could participate in the late rally I think will happen but I'll take the bird in hand.

Another bummer yesterday...is there an echo in here...down 1.75%

I am looking for a poor open and a late rally to get us back to moving up. This is confirmed (according to one of my services) to some degree by futures. We'll see. I do know that the only smart plays are again to fade the opens--buy weakness and sell strength.

I want to buy some GZTC today. I am tempted to take a large position. Yesterday was a huge day for this stock. I bet it picks up EOM buying--which is the reason I remain agressive.

The bears are pressing and ripe to get a bit of the savaging they've been trying to dish out. Keeping the faith into Friday.

9/26 Tue

Last weeks disgust with the market is ending up a very expensive move. It is the second time this summer that I reduced drastically because of the volatility. The first wasn't as damaging as this swing. But, I have been able to look at my portfolio with a bit of detachment that wasn't there before. It is easy to show disgust with this market and do these kinds of things but it is usually at the wrong time. Even with missing the gain, I would probably make such a move again. When it quits looking like a game it impinges on quality of life.

I wonder what today will bring. We are still oversold on the Naz and due the oversold rally. I am still of the opinion that it will be a recovery to sell into. At the best we are likely to be stuck in the trading range and at worst we get a pullback. The question here isn't one of profiting. The question is does the risk:reward make sense to be heavily invested. I suppose one can always find stocks that will move.

Yesterday, many biotechs broke out. Some stayed above their breakout and others pull back to touch congestion levels. A bull trap is a distinct possibility. I will be careful with the holder/index buys of yesterday and evaluate them going into later in the day and into the close. I don't need a nasty draw-down here. I'll set stops if they can move up and move them aggressively. I have the feeling there might be an attack early that gets reversed late. The shorts can read charts too and can also see the bull trap formation.

I'm up a bit over 40% for the year and have no wish to see it halved here.

9/25 Mon

B: QQQ 94 1/64 BBH 202 3/4 201 3/4 (Cash 31%)

Today was a wash...bummer...so much for Friday's call...

Should have gotten the Waterhouse BBH fill at 202 but...

Bought some more BBH but that's underwater a bit too. The day is still an up day for the portfolio at 2:30. I wonder now if it can hold. The follow-through from Friday's bullish recovery hasn't kicked in. So, it may be time to go back to my old thinking. That's a bit premature at this point but volatility seems to be back and causing trouble. Want to see if the Morgan Biotech conference has the ability to move things a bit. If not, I wonder if this is even a decent oversold rally.

With all the one day reversals and with a weekend off, I'm am looking to take short term positions--not my strength, but...

Looking at the Biotech Holder for short term action without getting emotional. Utilities look very strong here too. But, I am not a utilities person and they had a bigger runnup than many and I can't see them doing best here. Still thinking Biotech. I haven't been sold that it won't be a top gainer. The Sox is on support and possibly playable but I can't see it moving big. What a difference a reversal day like Friday brings to the table. Just don't want to get too carried away; yet, I want to participate. To not trade because of the past volatility doesn't seem as important as it did late last week.

I am still bearish for the intermediate term and have to keep that in mind as I consider investing more. I look at channels and don't see a huge move up a possibility. Friday seems too strong to be a total head fake but you have to question if things can sustain. The guess here has to be a great big no!

This is just a trading opportunity and the QQQ do look better than the BBH for strength to upside. Maybe INTC and MSFT can get out of their own shadow for a bit.

9/23-24 Weekender

Yesterday I said not to sell the open. I was right for a change. I should of bought something but didn't and that may be wrong but I am also able to look at whatever happens without seeing my fortune on the line. So, how much is piece of mind worth?

The Composite tried but failed to fill the gap up at 3583 on June 1. I think that has to fill before long. But, the action for today has to lower us to the definitely oversold range. So, we rally next week but the real question is how much! I just can't see anything in the way of a serious bounce. Even with the morning panic we aren't seeing the capitulation that calls a bottom. We are still in greed mode and we need to see a lot more fear to even consider calling a bottom.

The Smart Money (open strength vs closing hour strength) is very negative here. The pros are selling off. That makes this rally a place to reduce or even get out. If I play anything over the next week it will probably be something like the BBH. I can avoid emotional involvement and try to use it as nothing more than a trading vehicle.

If you look at the Naz McClellan oscillator, the pattern that may be completing is similar to that going into the spring decline. We rallied from less oversold and failed to reach higher oversold readings. If we do that here, I think it signals the decline. A full runout would take us to or close to the elections. So a mini-trading range that is tight and hard to profit from might be one possibility.

9/22 Fri The day of the Intel blow-up.

S: USPIX ??

I had thought biotechs would run. Like everything else they opened down and were a buying opportunity. I should probably play my gut more but it is hard to buy them when you should, isn't it?

That sell of USPIX may look pretty stupid and it just may be. But the negativity got too nasty too fast here and the NDX is now seriously oversold. It has to rally sometime next week. I think Monday continues the downside trend but selling a Fund isn't as instantaneous as being short the QQQ or such, so you go with gestimates and not 5-minute charts. I will put this back on and I will try to stay with a lot of cash. As a note, the trade was through TDW and they have horrid handling of fund trades--they move to the next day after 2 PM. I do them in the future with DATEK, if I can. I have put too much into trading cycles when my prejudice is toward intermediate term trades!

A note: my exposure here is nasty with almost half of the portfolio now in LCOS. That could be a problem.

I was going to remark that the USPIX buy stayed above water but I expected a rally before the big decline. That looks wrong. Grateful to have the USPIX here. Wonder what other sectors are going along for the ride and what ones can resist the onslaught. Probably regular drug will be up huge today. Telecom should get hammered too.

ABSC sale is a sign of my disgust with this market. That is as nice a recovery chart as one could hope for. I bet I regret that sale for a long time--not really though I want this semi-vacation and a W-bottom would make it more attractive.

This market wore me out and you can always find a nice stock in a better market environment. I did keep small positions as a building block for later. I usually just sell but I like several of these stocks too much and wanted at least a token position. Biotechs were rally stocks during Aug-Sept-Oct. It is possible they will be a counter trend sector. It be funny to listen to the commentators parroting "Flight to Quality" and then have the "you've bet on the come" biotech participate. But, anything that reports a profit is the vulnerable here.

Listening to the radio this morning and they are already looking at the spring bottom like testing it happens today and before noon. But, 300 points on the Comp would take us back to the August low area and I think that might be doable if they really panic. And, if that happens I won't be playing for an immediate rebound. Will start looking at Weekly Charts more than dailies to try to grasp the bigger views.

One chart to look at is the composite for 1994! If we were to duplicate that we'd have a chance at 2275 on the Composite. Nobody can project that kind of a move. And, it won't happen on a straight line. So, I have to try to play the rallies where one can. This kind of a move won't happen in a vacuum.

If I were wanting to live dangerously, I'd look for some buys toward noon with the thought to sell into the rally that will probably happen. If I owned any tech and I don't really have much, just LCOS, I would take off any stops before the open and hope there is a rally that I can sell into. This is not a time to panic; let others do that.

9/21 Thu

S: ABSC 51 1/4 (Cash: 49% Short: 13.5%)

Paper trade GENE @ 19 9/16 going into last half hour. Would buy in last 5 minutes though. Would sell the open.

Hard not to buy WAG here. Broke to a new high off consolidation. Good sector for an economic slowdown too... Will just watch it ramp though...

In defense of my stupidity: I let the ABSC go and it is now 2 bucks higher. Been there of late and have increased my limits and not gotten filled. Today, I didn't do that...hindsite!!!

Major reduction of the ABSC. Now a 25% position. Only GENE reduction remaining. It and LCOS (which I'm still playing the merger on) remain full positions.

Looked at the CELG chart and thought that would once have been a buy today. But, with the way things are going it is a keep away.

Well, I still expect a short term rally here. I was worried about it's magnatude and keep reducing what seems early. I also put the USPIX on ahead of what I think the top. Nasdaq could reach close to 4000+ here and put that trade underwater. But, I'm willing to ride it that way here. Can't see it ramping up beyond that point and fear (now hope) for a major downside move. It is starting to seem obvious that the old lows of the spring need to be tested. And then we could see a long consolidation move.

All the strong, go-go sectors are on life support here. Even my favorite, Biotech, is very shakey. Failed rally after failed rally does not point to a big upside in my book.

The short has a 2x factor so I'm about neutral here. And I still have limit sell orders active.

9/20 Wed Making the bear case

B: USPIX 25.30 S: GENE 21 5/8 USBC 1 29/32 CEGE 29 7/16 MLNM 136 ABSC 48 1/4

Dumped the rest of USBC--my flyer--these shares underwater. Sold half the CEGE for a small profit-it is continuing up here. Reduced MLNM by 2/3rds. 25% of ABSC sold.

I just got tired watching things bounce so dramatically. I'd planned to hold into Friday morning before wholesale dumping. But, it ain't worth it anymore.

The USPIX is the Bear OTC 2x against the N100. Tired of the pain here. And will sell more into any rally to get even the core holding to low levels. Contrarians rejoice--you get a rally here. I think we could bounce here to 4100 Naz but think that the last hurrah. Will hold for at least a week and then reconsider. I think we need a shakeout...a real one! The buy isn't huge but it does give me a slightly negative bias and that's without my other sell order hitting.

Some nice idiot took me out of some (61 shares) of my GENE at a big premium in yesterday's aftermarket.

Yesterday's strength is making me rethink my GTC orders. I'm not taking them all off but I am scaling them back. The stochastics on most are ripe for a move. Can't see it being a great one but it could make me a lot better off.

I'd at least like to get Monday's loss off the table before I embark on selling. My selling will be to get me down to around 40% stock. I can live with that into a decline...I think...and continue to own favorite core issues.

Dumb move department: I kept the ABSC and sold the IMCL. A few more like that and I'll go into bonds--probably at the rate low... IMCL is up 6 with an hour to go on split news.

9/19 Tue

S: HHGP 8 3/4 1 USBC 13/16 (Cash 41%)

Out of HHGP. HHGP had increased from 6 to this point and that's too quick. Should have taken the profit earlier. USBC is my "flyer" and I reduce 50%. The sell covered the cost of the trade.

Put on a bunch of GTC limit order to sell into a possible rally. I will do a white paper soon on what I think will be happening. I am a bear. I want 60-70% cash in the next few days and I'll take a trading vacation at that point.

Wow! I still have a little blood left but but they got all my stem cells.Biotechs lead the decline and my portfolio lost 4.1% yesterday. All I've got going for my trading is hindsite.

Yesterday was a brute. I had such a scenario in the back of my mind. Not as brutal as it was but a serious Monday pullback. The rest of it was to rally for the rest of the week. It has about as much support as dream interpretation but I am holding here.

In the grasping at straws category: CEGE did not sell off yesterday. It has a positive A:D divergence and built a mini cup & handle in yesterday's chart. If it moves up tomorrow it will do a MACD (15 minute variety) 0,0 crossover.

9/18 Mon

S: HHPG 8 3/8 AVNX 129 (CASH 36%)

Sold half the HHGP for a 3/8 profit. Took a bath on all the AVNX. Helene's panic seems here. Just how deep do we selloff seems the next question. GENE went to the level I thought it'd hold (actually can do a dollar lower) and is doing so--the one small salve to today's wounds. CEGE is holding pretty well. Was looking at a sell on the AVNX when it hit 138 3/4 but didn't pull the trigger--dumb! Want to raise more cash.

Helene Meisler (The Street Dot Com Pay) sums it up: The Nasdaq Composite Index market will reach a moderate oversold reading by the end of trading on Monday, so a big down opening could lead to an oversold bounce later in the week. However, for such an oversold bounce to have sustainability, we still require both panic and positive divergences. Without those two factors, the bounce will be ineffective. I still believe that without panic we cannot have a good bottom. And Friday's action did not look like panic to me.

It doesn't look like the open will provide the panic. I won't buy anything here though. Just hold and pray. Biotechs still seem the savior with a chart that won't give in.

9/16-17 Weekender

Ended the week with about 1% profit. Beats a poke in the eye by a bit but barely. Without Monday and Friday, it would have been a nice week. The sorry lack of anything's sustainable continues. I feel fairly comfortable with the stocks I own here but not the market overall. It continues to add volatility but little in the way of a trend.

Things have gotten more negative. Hope that's good for one more rally. Nazdaq should reach oversold next week. That should, hopefully, provide some impetus. Trouble is I believe a lot of the bearish sentiment. Not being a super bear here but time of the year and volitility seem to point to a fairly nasty correction down the road. I'm looking to reduce but keep letting myself suck me into another position.

A few months back I preached the lousy money supply practices of the Federal Reserve. They exploded money supply due to Long Term Capital and again for Y2K. These excesses are being reined in now and still are in that process. Historically that has always become a recession. So, say "Soft Landing" seems to be a wish more than a fact. The market seems ready to confirm that view in the next few months. Can our economy prevent that? Maybe...but it will be a first...

9/15 Fri nice cup & handle

B: ABSC 56 3/16 (CASH: 25%)

No news and it nosedived quickly so bought a few shares as a trading buy. Mistake...has gone lower.

Everything Thursday lacked any conviction. I had a nice day due to HHGP which rocketed 19% on 2K shares. So, I ended up 1.5%. Without that the day would have been all but flat. And, again they sold the close. So, tomorrow we'll see if the cycle continues and they again buy the close. The buys yesterday were poor or flat. I probably should have stayed with the cash.

I'm expecting a decent rally into the end of the quarter. I will reduce significantly into that.

This is a frustrating market--stealth rally or whatever. There have been few solid sectors. Energy and Banks are areas I don't understand very well and I try to avoid getting carried away in such sectors.

I'm expecting TRRA to be one of the sucessful internet plays. They need a good quarter and should get it--lots of comments about strong Brazilian net growth and they are a major in that market. I'm strong with LCOS here that converts to 2.15 shares of TRRA. TRRA is range bound but could be a great fall rally stock.

9/14 Thu

B: AVNX 146 47/64 GENE 21 5/8 (Cash: 30%)

OK action; not humming but hasn't croaked and giving us a second up day at this point--1 P.M.

Averaged down with the GENE--often a fool's play. We shall see...

A flyer here; AVNX is a Gilder favorite and reports today at his conference. Not a great chart and probably will be just a short term play. A grasp as straws compliments of some savy guys.

Well, they did the opposite of the day before and bought them into the close for me. My trades looked ok up until that. Now, it looks like biotechs rally here. The BBH was hitting new highs right into the close and is there after hours. MLNM and GENE and LCOS and CEGE are there too. I expect it will go even higher after hours as the idiots insist on owning some of these--I'm writing this just after the close. So where from here? I haven't the foggiest. I do know it was weak volume again but above declining volume levels. If we ever get real volume in the Biotechs, they could make a real run.

Biotechs again did what they had to do: rally. Many of these stocks show "Morning Star" candle patterns which is a nicely bullish formation that signal possible bottoms. Even the BBH is close to that formation. Those recent decliners that aren't quite Morning star pattern are very close. There are just to many of these to ignore. I'm starting to wish I hadn't reduce. But, it really could have (and still can) go either way. 9 out of 10 Biotechs are showing spike reversal lows. The question now is how much of this is option related!!! That could make for a miserable Monday. Then think; we are at quarter end and these may be stocks that they'll use for window dressing. Lot of things trying to tug in both directions.

The VIX is ready for a rally here. I think it will be a short term rally and that we will have a pullback after the quarter positioning ends.

Why I'm getting more (intermediate) bearish: Oil won't come down; Natural gas is high and has limited storage that could make for a rough heating season; Electricity is more dependent on natural gas these days. All this is going to put recessionary pressures on stocks. People will pull in their spending horns. Both candidates want to pass out money which is 100% against the way the Fed is thinking and could force them to further action when it is most damaging.

If I believe most of what I just said, then we have to have a downturn that could require a sustained consolidation before we see real recovery. That could be as bad/long as one year away. We need to either take out the 4300 level on the Composite or limit any retracement to stop decently above the old low.

Long term projections are about as good as the one's weathermen make. They need to be adjusted regularly. The old saw about a butterfly moving the air just so in Asia can cause a huricane in the Caribean is just like market timing. We sometimes see the obvious and miss the real significance.

9/13 Wed

S: LCOS 68 7/8 CEGE 28 3/4 (Cash: 42%)

Day closed up 2%.

Reduced LCOS by the trade of a couple of days ago. LCOS is still an overweight position. May reenter late today. (Didn't)

CEGE sell was small profit on earlier trading with core position left intact. I love the fact that CEGE is trading a bit above the point I sold--I still own a full position. What I don't like is the volume here--22% for the day at 1:20. That's ominous in my book. It improved late in the day to have volume above the two previous days of decline.

This isn't a market for a chest grasping Fred Stanford, "I'm coming Martha!"--he'd never have time to trade. The BBH looks like an accident waiting to happen. The BTK has a nasty Evening Star Candle pattern. But, indivual charts can look pretty good to not so good. The Biotechs were down for the day but I ended up for the day. Pyrrhic victory. Will look to reduce some here. The nasty declines late need/should reverse in the morning. But, I doubt they can hold.

I put a limit order in to sell a portion of my CEGE. Hated to do it. Love the stock. Has a cash and marketable security hoard that is above $28. The stock is trading at a discount to it! And this for a company that has a ton of patents and a drug that should get fast track status. Yet, it looks like I may see it dip lower before it is over. I'm still keeping the remaining stock and considering it a core holding.

TRRA looks like it rallies here. It has a gravestone Doji that signals bottoms. Money flow remains solid. But, I own a ton of LCOS and can't do it. But, it is a nice rally candidate here. HGSI bounced off it's 50 day yesterday and would be a buy in a bull market. It is the kind of trade that we made money from all last year. Today, I'll just watch.

It is looking more and more like we get a correction and it could be significant. And, we are getting close to being oversold and can expect a rally. So a lot of things are tugging at my trading. I cancelled the IMCL order at 90. Still looks good pullback buy but I like the look of cash better. Instead of those W-bottoms I'm looking at the M-tops or lower highs or bearish wedges. I could ignore some of that in the past. I can't now.

I've decided to try to scalp on the USBC and am looking for 1 31/32--3/8's makes a nice little play. If I get out early--my hope--I'll look to go back in at the buy level of yesterday.

HHGP may have finished it's pullback. ALLP, that it owns a bunch of, looked strong most of yesterday. (What bio can't you say that about?) That should have it's NAV higher than the $4 I saw last. It's NAV may have bottomed--unless we get the big scenario retrace in the market.

The SOX looks terminal here. I can't see a buying opportunity and it is hard to imagine a strong rally without it participating. Catch-22. The last expiration was not a bullish activity. Maybe triple witch will change that and we will be oversold by next week. So, it seems I should hold until then without raising a lot of cash. But, some more would be nice.

The QQQ is sitting on trendline, Bollanger, and gap up support here. That'd be a LOT of support to break down through and make for a lot of resistance over the near term if it does.

9/12 Tue

B: USBC 1 25/32

What a glorious day...right up until 2:15...I had made yesterday back and a nice gain to boot. That evaporated and the day ended up 1.6%. That's about 40% of the high. I guess one has to be grateful that it was in the green. The poor part was volume again.

The USBC buy was bought ahead of earnings. This company has shown improvement and it may have a bit of a run on a good report. Downside seems pretty limited.

IMCL started back up. A disappointment as I have a limit buy in at 90.25. I'd thought it was headed for that--a W-bottom. May still make it. Like the stock. Thought I'd play trader on it. We'll see.

I am still looking for a rally. We may get one more down day but things were sick enough here (-3%) that I'm hoping for it to rebound today in Biotechs but it looks like the BBH may want to see 175 as the rebound point. That'll be painful to sit through but I'll ride it to that point and see the direction. A rally today would be a bullish stochastic bounce from above the previous low.

S&P looks ready to decline one more day to reach oversold. The Dow is in the same shape. So my guess is another down day across the board and then we get an oversold rally that could be quite nice. The "Pros" came back and saw the prices from all those "stealth rallies" and wanted in but lower--a guess--and, worked it down with a bunch of puts. There are some nice money flow divergences around that indicate the stock is being support into these declines. We could have a nice rally into option expiration. That's how I'm gaming things.

9/11 Mon

B:LCOS 66 5/8 S:IMCL 97 1/2

Moved lighter on Biotech here and added to merger play with LCOS. As usual, I bought at interday support just before it move down again... 30% cash position. Had a limit sell in for the addition to CEGE that didn't hit...darn...

Well, the blood bath may not be over quite yet. I think we go out of the week higher than we came into though. Expirations are again on tap and all those puts could move us either way. I think it could be up as traders balance their put positions against stock buys. That said, I should be trading in/out more on my portfolio. It isn't the way I like to operate though. I could have done some great scalping over the recent weeks. It's been a sell early and buy back late kind of market for an awfully long time .

9/9-10/00 Weekender

3770 is pretty decent support for the COMP. It has overheaded resistance just above 4200. If it can take out the July high, it could race ahead. If it fails it could decide to test the August lows. Seems we could be on a cusp. Add to that the distribution day experienced by the QQQ and you have to question Nazdaq strength here. The weaker N100 may be calling another rotation to the lower cap area.

Worden considers the Dow the stronger chart. I respectfully disagree. On it's own, it looks ominous to me. It is made lower highs and lows before getting here and seems ripe to test support/the high and need a retest. It is a place I should have been but don't want today. Tomorrow, I could be proven wrong but it is way to iffy to even think about a buy here. If it pullback to the 11000 area support and held, it would seem ready.

The week was a rough one for me. It is the kind of week where you start to question all your decisions. You question those favorite stocks. And, I can't come up with an answer. I try to stay invested even in difficult periods and should probably raise a bit of cash here. I can make money without being fully invested. The risk reward ratio is against being heavily invested.

9/8/00

Yesterday's after hours run up evaporated like the will of the wisp they usually are...

Well, yesterday was an up day but on less volume than the down day. Not out of the woods but have hopes. Would hate another reversal. Have had just too many of those. On the upside is the volume that was in the BBH which had great volume and makes me think we can do it. And, there were many inside days that add to the bullish scenario.

There are various regional banks and software stocks that look awfully good here.

9/7/00

B: HHGP 8

Wow! checked back after the close and the 2 day punishment is down to 300-bucks...

Going into the close it looks like I make back about half of yesterdays losses--not quite but almost...

HHGP buy on spec here. Not a great stochastic. Trying to scalp a buck. Kind of an iffy play at this point. But they have a nice genomic coming out soon that should be some protection.

Optimism in the Biotech sector seems to be returning. I'm holding here. CEGE has a lot of weight on the stock again today. Someone is dumping stock to either side with the pool staying unchanged.You can get an inbetween fill in a heartbeat. If this seller dries up it could ramp.

There've been worse days than yesterday but I can't remember one that disappointed worse. The program selling or whatever that was at the end was nasty. The NAZ put in a distribution day that was the first in a month. I am going to reduce here and if the day is a bummer will put on some USPIX hedge to protect what I do keep. Biotechs got hammered. If that is leadership, and I still think it the best sector to lead, then we are in for a dry spell.

Really decent Nazdaq support is down around 3750. That a nasty bounce even if that should hold--which isn't a given. S&P support looks good around 1455 and then 1420. The BTK and BBH did their damage earlier and actually did a minor recovery late. BTK support is at 690.

My gameplan is to get out of the CEGE bought yesterday near the open. I'll ride the rest for another day. Or look for some reductions into strength.

9/6/00 Naz opened at high; closed at low; very bearish!

B: CEGE 27 3/4

CEGE looked good til about 3PM. It then tanked and is now a gapper setup for the morning where it should be sold into the open. I have the feeling that the selling is out of the stock with that major dumping action an hour before the close What I should have done was recognized what I figured I knew and sold with a small profit.

After I bought it appeared that a big block was being sold off in CEGE. Some nice block buyers seem to be taking in a lot of it. I wonder how big a position is being liquidated. If it can get sold, we have a nice chance at a bit of a rally.

Took my favorite back in on the expectation that most of the selloff in biotechs has happened. Bought the same number of shares that were sold yesterday. That was a $2 scalp. I should do more of that but it isn't my nature, I fear. The BTK is forming a cup bottom here and looks promising. CEGE is dead on a support line drawn from the bottom and taking in the base of the gap up. Seems like a strong support point to me. Almost went with MLNM instead. The nice little cup bottom failed; but, it now looks like a W bottom has formed...

Few, if any, signs of relief from this selloff. I'm up 38% for the year and that has been a resistance level for me. Do I again fall back and give it away?

Well, after getting clocked yesterday and looking at rollover charts left and right, it is hard to be a bull this morning. But, we are due for a retrace here. The $64 question is: how big? I don't know but could promote a scenario for either size. I really thought we'd see another leg up before any serious correction.

For the moment, I'll stick with the shakeout theme and expect a rally tomorrow. Hopefully, there will be signs of it yet today. We shall see...

9/5/00

S: CEGE 29 3/4

Nasty day: -2.5% Little to see good. But it could still be the normal pullback from the run ups for some of them.

The CEGE sell was a reduction to normal weight. Cash is now 36%. Biotechs are looking surprisingly weak today. But, that doesn't mean a whole lot in this kind of market. The sale doesn't reflect a really negative view; it is more about money management. I'd be very happy to see this be a "dumb" sell and have the stock go out much stronger from here. It went out weaker and on the low for the day.

Seems like New Year's Eve more than Labor Day. It is the anticipation before the new year and in the last few years October was the whole year in many respects. We seem early with a number of averages having taken out their July high with some style. Having tried to bottom feed late last week, I'm counting on some rally here. I don't think it is the "real" one yet and I think we could test things before having the rally we hope for. I tried to be neutral to bearish for a while and can't live that life very well. Still a fair amount of cash here. Will try to avoid putting it to work. But, if we really start to kick, will I be resolute...hell, no...

With the unbounded optimism somewhat in check I have to keep looking at that 4300 level with the thought it is pretty strong resistance that needs to be shattered for this to be capable of being more than an oversold rally. That's a source for pessimism. That's a reason to be ready to reduce. I have to recognized that I can reduce into what becomes the real rally and still make good money!

Weekender 9/2-3-4/00 Labor Day Weekend

Last week started off pretty indecisive. I was worried. But, I'm feeling much better now. There was rotation but it seemed sane and grounded in real feelings rather than the helter-skelter moves that preceded it. It seems to confirm a bullish trend. We aren't out of the woods but there is some light ahead.

Optical looks ready. Tech stocks look ready. BioTechs look ready. Financials look extended and needing to consolidate. Looks like we can dance with the girl what brung us...now if we could just get oil out of the dance...

If we can avoid some nasty preannouncements next week, we have a chance for a bullish rumble. I still am afraid there will be a testing of lows but see this as having a good recovery rally potential. I'd thought the rally would be weaker than I'm now hoping.

I might take some short term trades next week. We'll just have to see what Tuesday looks like. And, I want to keep telling myself that September is usually a poor month overall. But, there should be a lot of cash around here and managers have to put that to work if they see a glimmer of a bull market--and last week gave us more than a glimmer.

Fri 9/1

B: ABSC 68 5/8

Gain for the day was 1.8%. And that beat the averages nicely. That's the way I want it!

Ok, I'm a trading junky. Went against my plan and bought it near the open at open price. This has a 15:1 reward:risk in my charting. Cash 30%. Ended slightly under water.

I would love to buy ABSC today. That goes against my wish to raise cash. I just got done listening to Bob Brogan's Weekly Report which makes me want to raise more cash. If he's wrong or early, I could buy here for short term trade as it was a stock he mentioned as a bullish trade. So, do I break my wishes and take this in? I should have enough biotechs here to make out well on a move. Helene Meisler at The Street Dot Com is bullish. Smith there is bearish. Don at Metamarkets has been waffling more than usual and is usually optimistic. See the problem? The people who I respect are calling a crap shoot.