Archives: 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000
Thu 8/31
B: IMCL 97 3/8
What can I say? I liked it at 98. I had to get back in. The day is ramping. I thought a bit more exposure wasn't all bad. up 3+% here and now 40% cash. Buy was 7.8% of portfolio value.
Stocks I like here: GZTC CORR HGSI MLNM all are strong biotechs with stochastic crossovers and spike bottom reversals. I should be leaping on these with both feet but I'm tired and have a hard time getting juiced. Today is the end of the month and we don't know how many of the run-ups are based on that.
I am starting to see good looking telecom charts. I see spike reversals in the Biotechs. Things seem too good to think we tank here. At least for the short term. The rightness of reducing on the biotechs early yesterday seemed very wrong by later in the day. But, I don't think we do the "lets trend all Fall" thing yet so having that much cash doesn't feel all that bad.
After all the whipsawing and phoney moves, I'm burned out enough to stay nervous. My guess is for a rally here that can't sustain. i.e. continuing trading range But, the pullback from this one could want to be the test we see before we get a real recovery. That would set us up for another struggling recovery along with cleaning out a lot of weak positions. I think the real recovery to highs might wait until after the first of the year with an economy that isn't in the Fed's clutches.
I'll play the stochastic on these drug stocks more closely here. They are all over the board. ABSC is a stochastic buy as is DUSA. DUSA is a breakout candidate and ABSC is a bottom fishing candidate sitting close to it's channel line. The QQQ has a short term stochastic coming up on oversold. The BBH (holder) has room to ramble up. The HHH should be oversold early next week. I want to watch these as tells on the general sectors here.
Wed 8/30
S: MLNM 125.75 GENE 24
Ended up 2%. The sells were all at lower levels than they went out. GENE (I am still in fairly strongly) actually did the deed with volume. The others weren't quite as fortunate.
I took the sell of the CEGE after GENE and MLNM kept moving. It is kind of like betting on the grey horse in the third race because grey horses won the others, but it is my favorite in the sector, anyway... (Anybody hear a tad of rationalizing here?) With about half cash, I feel a bit more comfortable letting things ride into the long weekend.
Need to remind myself that this windup in the Nazdaq could resolve either way. I'm trying to play it neutral-long here. I haven't bought any USPIX to cover the short side but I have been raising cash. The winding up says we see a pretty substantial move but I don't think it will be an instant move to either side--although that should happen. A trap to either side seems likely given the way the market has floundered. I don't feel bad with 50% cash and I'm not one to be in cash.
MLNM was a reduction from an overweight to a verly slightly underweight position. (As a stupid aside: I misentered a limit order way lower than bid.) Now 45% cash and looking to add to cash with part sales in CEGE and GENE. GENE sold and now 3/4 weight. 50% cash. I'd have liked to have gotten that extra 1/2 to 7/8 that the stock ran up quickly after my limit was reached but I have to say I didn't think my 24 limit was a sure thing so I'll go with my original thoughts until proven wrong again. And, that won't be until sometime next week.
Everything seems to be running in molasses up a slippery slope--to mix metaphores a bit.
I am starting to really fear this market. I was off a percent and change yesterday. Not a biggy but the action to get there was very bearish--as have been any number of days. The market is floundering without inertia. Even the rotations are getting a bit puny. I want to reduce on the Biotechs. I've been selling more than I'm buying and want to keep that up.
Toppiness seems to show up everywhere. Negative candle patterns seem to abound. I use candle charts for their appearance more than the patterns but recognize a few.
Tue 8/29
S: IMCL 78 3/32 B: LCOS 68 1/2
I bought the LCOS and it is now 67 and I am tempted but just entering another paper trade here. Paper trade out at 2:33 at 68 1/2 limit trade.
Added a bit of LCOS to round out the shares into the October merger.
The mini-weakness has me wanting to reduce exposure here. Will look to reenter. Have limit orders on part of GENE and CEGE also. IMCL sell was for all. Follow up: I thought my 44% cash position adequate and cancelled the remaining sell orders.
There was no real positive action in the Biotechs and they are appearing ready for a bit of a pullback. They are looking tired here. It is hard to come up with average volume do to the time of year. IMCL pulled back to close to my buy on about the same volume--no tell yet, but... I think/hope we see a week of consolidation on most of the biotechs. That'd help them set up for another little move. In the meantime, I just might get out of IMCL on any opening strength.
The LCOS took out the July high on average volume in the face of the Yahoo downgrade and looks strong. TRRA needs to get to 44 though for the collar to be in place. Not sure that will happen.
If you remove GTHR from the picture, I was down yesterday just about as much as I was up on Friday. This tends to keep me a complacent fellow--which the market seems to be in general--that remains a negative concern.
Mon 8/28 cigarette stocks
S: GTHR 17 11/32
My LCOS is having a good day. It should have been clobbered by the YHOO downgrade. You have to like a stock that can do that.
Making a paper only buy of GENE @ 22 3/4. Intent would be to sell somewhere near the open tomorrow. Open was 23 and high was 23 1/2...good for a mini profit.
I have been doing these kinds of things in my head as short term trades and want to note some of them in the diary.
Mid-day and things (except for the GTHR) aren't going as planned. Weak volume across the board on my holding. Modest profit. I remain concerned and grateful that I raised more cash today. Hopefully the afternoon will improve appearances.
GTHR is a done deal. They are being acquired for 17.75. It is nice to look at the portfolio at get go and be up 5+ on 2000 shares!
Color me optimistic for the week. I am hoping biotech's breakout continue strongly here. The broader market is at an inflection point that we have to watch though. A good Naz move would be VERY bullish after breaking above the trendline on Friday. It really needs to hold this breakout to avoid a bull trap that could signal a pullback of some proportion.
Weekend 8/26
What a nice week. After the bloodletting of earlier days, I'm flush with new blood. That is a bit scary and I fear getting too complacent. This market is anything but out of the woods. Anybody who sounds sane in an overall analysis of these markets is either psychic or psychotic.
We are at real crunch time here (Naz & BTK is my interest here.) and next week should be most interesting. The market needs to take out any number of important chart lines that are resistance. We have pretty close support. Friday, took out some resistance and then settled back on very weak volume that makes it seem a pause more than panic. But, it is still crunch time.
Biotechs have reconfirmed themselves as my sector of choice. Yeah, it is one of those bubbles that has no relationship to being analyzed by a fundamentalist. But we all been there and got the tee-shirt and richer to boot. If the market corrects, I think Bios could be where the institutionals go for "safety" in this weird market. I have the feeling they can look at announcements like the CEGE one or the fast tracking coming up for IMCL and be comfortable with stupid or non-existent P/E numbers--which is what the market looks at for "bubble" status.
My big concern is my lack of good exit strategies. I tend to fall in love with a sector or stock. To avoid losing the gains I've had I am selling myself on reducing instead of closing. I am going to be wrong at some point but stocks like CEGE, GENE etc. seem to be such a strong part of the future that I feel it has to be honored by the market. (So much for TA here...)
I somewhat regret not buying ABSC on Friday. The stock is really coiled for an explosive move. But, the one buy on Friday was enough. ABSC has a stochastic to kill for here. With the shortest term just moving out of oversold with the longer term still oversold but doing crossovers. The weekly stochastic show a different picture with the longer term ones at oversold in a way that suggest the potential to remain in such a condition for an extended move. The weekly TSV is positive and above the previous high--causing a bullish divergence. The key is how strong the sector can be. If it is strong, then this stock could double or better. It certainly is strong enough to take out it's old high which would be the area of confirming a possible double. At that point, it becomes a real guessing game--these are the kinds of stocks that can appreciate strongly for years.
In some respects, these have the potential be better than owning a Microsoft or Cisco from the IPO. Although, it won't exhibit the steady growth patterns and we will have more winners and loser along the way. The winners will be huge. Funny, people my age will not see the benefits other than the cash they make us...
Fri 8/25
B:IMCL 98
Hey, I'll go to bed happy with the miniscule gain I ended up with. I was up 4 G's at one point I was down 3.5 G's at another. So, I will take the 500-bucks profit and tip my hat to the trading gods. Yesterday's goat was today's hero. Also nice move on LCOS. LCOS is a buy here, IMO. Decent volume and nice breakout kind of move.
The IMCL trade went off great. I think that is the first time I ever bought the bottom and I think there were something like 4 trades at that price. Blind hogs and acorns...they usually slide after I buy them...
Well, I bought some stock on a Friday. The pullback in Biotechs seems orderly and not overdone. IMCL looks to bypass Phase III testing on fast track approval of it's cancer drugs. The closeness to market should make it one of the less volatile of the bios without limiting the upside. At least that's my hope.
Today should be interesting. We've stretched the biotechs and run them basically from the bottom of their bands to the top. Do the "pros" recognize that and start taking their profits? Add a Friday bias and today shouldn't go great guns. If it does, I'll have to think about putting more money back to work on Monday.
The Naz looks strong but crunch time is getting closer and closer. We will need to take out the 4300 area high to to think it will avoid a possibly serious pullback. Such a pullback might be best. It could get us out of this trading range and whipsaw market and give us a better base to grow from.
The Biotech index is touching it's upper trend line resistance! It does need to take that out to confirm the move.
Thu 8/24 commentary on pennants
S: STLW 40 3/4 (37 9/16)
I probably should have stayed with the STLW. It went out well but I just got tired of watching it bounce here. It had already gone from a good profit to a loss one time. It still appears poised to break out from a bullish wedge and go higher. But, I won't be there and I'm glad. This got me back to a 26% cash position and I like that. Today was a 5% day with GTHR weighing on it being a great day. Even with the pullback there I went out near a dollar high for the day. And, the Bios were popping new highs right up to the close. Tomorrow looks promising.
A while back I said I wanted to follow channel lines more in my trading. I haven't. 90% of the stocks that break through such lines retrace. CEGE & GENE have taken out the upper one. Are they one of the 10%? I'm playing it that way for the moment... I have switched to the Bollanger Bands for the time being. During the big Jan-Mar run they all cruised way above the channel lines--but finally came back to them! MAGN has much better channel characteristics here and did during the run. It operated in consolidation for a lot of that period. I really like it here. Regret not buying the HGSI when I was drooling over it.
It has been really hard to stick with Biotechs and it was hard to look at some of the losses. It looks ready to pay back here. Boy, I could use something positive!
The action on CEGE yesterday seemed intent on preventing a huge increase. The overnight bears that out as it is up 2 1/4 overnight. You can see the pros holding the line when a lot of trades go off between the bid and ask and the bid gets knocked down quickly during strong periods. Volume buys get followed by a knock-down move as the short positions try to get out without growing the price. They block buy; sell small the bid; offer small at a price below ask. Net appearance is negative if you aren't watching the actual tape. This works when the shorts aren't that massive.
GTHR looks to have been discovered. I will probably reduce a bit more into this move to keep it at a normal weighting but not yet. I consider it to be very buyable here and a stock that could easily double over the short term. It is back to being overweight in dollars and remains double weight based on shares.
Might buy some ABSC on any further pullback. DURA is a traditional drug that is quite strong and buyable here. DURA is a weird chart and has been stronger than the March high for some time. They've been under nice accumulation. If ABSC drops below 70, I will be very tempted. With DURA I am tempted to half-vest this morning and looks ready to do another 6-dollar measured move and a subsequent run at it's 48 area 1998 high. With DURA I am thinking that if we do have general weakness the rotation to "safety" should carry this one along. ONXX has moved back into the gap down and looks more dangerous than many but is still buyable on the pullback.
I'm not enthused about anything but biotechs from what I can see. Chip stocks look very toppy and losing the cash flow. I wonder if they have another good week in them. Banks seem the same. Utilities are a disaster waiting to happen. Retail has too much blood lose to rally quickly. With so many sectors not showing much promise and even looking newly wounded, I wonder if we can go up with the Indexes? The VIX is bearish but the Bull/Bear survey is too bearish here. Lots of mixed signals but I think we are probably closer to a low here than a high. Just where the move up comes from I can't determine. So, I remain fairly neutral here but with a slightly bearish bias.
Wed 8/23
What a day!!! Five-figures--+6%. MSDW put MLNM in it's model portfolio. GTHR got discovered and was my biggest winner most of the day. The only loser for the day has been HHGP.
CEGE has what looks like a huge announcement. After hours it changed my portfolio by over 1% in a positive direction. Interesting! This biotech has been under steady accumulation for on the 10 day chart while the stock slid. Looks like today is the payoff. This one could do the ONXX type move.
LENS (Concord Camera) got touted on Nightly Business Report. Take a look at the true, head & shoulders top on this one. Could be a buy after a pullback though. Great earnings projections.
Utilities look awfully stretched here. The money stream has rolled over on many of them. The momentum seems to have run it's course. Utilities are a leading indicator and if they should roll-over here it would add another negative to this market.
Tue 8/22
S: GTHR 10 15/32
Another one of those push days where lose just about equaled gains. And this with the "real" biotech index ramping 2+%
If this goes like most others... the first move after the Fed announcement will be counter trend. If it goes up, I'll sell some into the move. Wrong again, turkey-lips!
23% Reduction on GTHR to get it down to a full position on a cash basis--still overweight on a shares basis. Should it see 9 again, I'll probably refill the position. When B2B (if??) becomes more popular, this should be a leader.
Well, around 2:30 we should get the word and see what happens in the last hour. Regardless, I still look at this as a recovery rally. I doubt we take out 4289. If we do, my view will changes. I think the odds on that aren't in our favor. If that happens we could get a substantial, bearish correction.
Looking at the Comp we can see that there have only been 4 down volume bars on the chart. That's unbelievable when I compare things to my portfolio. I am up but nothing like those bars. I have been whipsawed for the whole month. Some of that has to go out of the market for me to think we get the "real" rally. There are valid concerns that indicate we could be a year away from that. I can't see that but I don't see breaking any records over that period and a lot of trading range activity. Short term, 4045 is the trendline resistance. 3500 marks the possible pullback with lots of support in between.
Might buy a bit of COLM late if the market is stable. Great Stochastic and yesterday was the recovery day from a pullback. Looks ready to reassault the recent high. Money stream and other indicators are firing bullish noise. It is sitting right on the 21 day MA. It is at a pretty strong angle. The envelope for that is a whole lot tighter than Bios and that ilk. This isn't a high beta play by contrast. I'll throw this one on the Medved/Streaming quotes screen for the day and decide.
In the biotechs PDLI looks poised to breakout. It did yesterday on fairly good volume and is another stock to scope out near the close or if biotechs look really solid.
Mon 8/21
2.2% up. 2/3rd from the GTHR move. Biotechs again had weak volume--along with the entire market.
Well, I think today will be an up day going into FOMC. The question here seems to be if we've priced all the good news into the Fed not raising rates. It kind of reminds me of an earnings report that beat estimates and the stock then tanks. That's bearish reaction and if this is to be a Bear market run the FOMC seems the tell. It is as easy to make a bear case as a bullish one right here.
Really wish I'd sold the STLW in the morning push Friday. It is looking awfully weak here. The stochastic is rolling over. It might be gone this morning.
Biotechs are a mixed bag. Mostly look like continuing consolidation. Some are quite bullish in their stochastics while some look ready to roll over. HGSI is a rollover and CRA looks ready to rocket. The BBH is crying oversold rally here. Still thinking we get an oversold rally soon on the biotech front. Wistful thinking?
Fri 8/18 Options Expiration
The Naz closed just a scosch (5-point) below the 200 day moving average. To fall back here would make one question any possibility of a substantive increase from here. We've the expirations to help today and the FOMC on Tuesday. Monday should be "interesting" to say the least. Again, volume is just so-so and a part of the season...we can hope. I still look at this move as something of an oversold rally that will peter out fairly soon.
But, let's say we take out the 200 day with gusto (volume)...well... I think we can make a case that we are going to start the Fall rally early. Sectors are basing a bit better without the volitility that mark the recent market. A good FOMC could lead us to Labor Day where we see market activity strengthen. If we believe this scenario, the rally could be "the real one" that we are all hoping for.
The nasty for the bullish view remains the VIX!
My portfolio was up 1.2% and that is lagging the averages I use to measure things.
Thu 8/17
My portfolio continues to flounder. My value is the same as a week ago. Up one day and down the next. The Naz can't seem to break above it's 50 and 200 day moving averages and that doesn't really bode well for this market. Either direction seems quite possible from here. And the VIX and season makes me suspect it will be down.
The Naz key right now seems to be 4K. That's the trendline the composite needs to take out here. If it fails that, we probably get a fallback that could take out the lower trendline at 3635. IF that gets taken out we could be in for a retest of the old low. Not a lot of support in between.
Just how many like me have held and even bought into the declines like we did in the past. The market is lethargic. I watched capital trickle away and didn't get disturbed. Volume in my stocks remains low. But that is becoming more a worry than solace. That's bear market logic.
Wed 8/16
B: 1000 GTHR 9
Ended up 2.4%. Portfolio value road a roller-coaster but did go out at an upward angle. So, I'm still the optimist heading toward expirations. I remind myself not to be the eternal optimist. I still see this as an oversold rally but that is getting pretty ambiguous.
Added to the GTHR. Had to do it. Looking at a 10 day chart. There is a divergence in the Advance/Decline that is positive almost 200K shares. This in the face of a nasty decline from 10 (my last buy) to 8.50. Too much good happening to this beaten down B2B stock. It has to end up a winner or so I've said repeatedly. The bad thing here is that the stock has almost no volume and is a very low volume stock that can be very volitile. My average cost is now 12 5/16. Not a bragger!
I would have bought MLNM today on the oversold stochastic crossover. But, I'm fully invested on that position. It is a leader; it is oversold; the stochastic quick has crossed above the slow. On the other hand there seems to be an unending supply of biotechs these days.
I am up almost 3.5% in the first 20 minutes. Been there before in this market and watched it tank from there. But, today feels different. That might be wistful thinking...
Another one of those days. The lack of traction here is amazing. Rotation seems massive and only the day traders can make money in this market. It seems that my portfolio has 50% of the stocks up and the others down. A good day for one sector gets negated by the other. Glad I did put more cash to work. Cash seems king here.
The markets seem to be at decision points. Lots of lines to cross on the charts. For the upside we have a FOMC that could ramp the market. Options expiration in between could move things in a big way. Lot of shorts around to get paniced. But these are the dog days of summer and the VIX spells trouble. The market remains a crap shoot.
Tue 8/15
Have to fight thinking of this as more than a rebound rally. However, the DOW is saying that it is. Have to keep options open but still not rushing to buy. But, I'm salivating over the Semis and think they could really ramp here.
When I want to get all warm and fuzzy I just look at the VIX. It still says we are too complacent in this market.
Mon 8/14
Today, a mixed bag, still left me up exactly 1%--which trailed the Nasdaq by .6%.
Friday was a better day for the averages than it was for my stock. The averages all had positive A:D data. The composite recovery was on slightly improved volume. All in all, I am going into today's trading with a bit of optimisms. Lot of reversal signs on Friday which included the BTK. But, this market is a heart-breaker that can't trend more than a few days so I have to wonder about any recovery. The VIX still says we don't get any strong rally here.
I am still interested adding to cash though. I want to keep basic positions open but with less exposure. With that said, I really want to buy SALN here with it's strong bullish wedge formed after the run-up. Wonder if the trade will happen...
Fri 8/11
For the bottom fishers: TRRA looks to have had a climax selloff. I am not buying anything here. I would only consider it with volume increase.
Nothing like the drop this AM. Was down 2.5% in a heartbeat. Looks like we could see a nice rally here though. On a Friday? Volume remains in the iffy camp going up and coming down. Not a lot of liquidity to this market.
I am reviewing Base X 4 moves. A lot of stocks seem at 3 or 4 here.
Thank goodness; two days coming where my stocks can't tank. FITB broke out today but it isn't something to chase. The volume wasn't there. I figure there has to be a pullback. Banks seem overextended here and this move looks like a bear trap. It has a near overbought stochastic. If I had played my stochastic on others stocks and done it by rote, I'd be money ahead.
Thu 8/10
Deadly day so far; just deadly. Down over 2.5%. Some small recovery to say that. I want to hold this into PPI news. That could help of finish me off. I really want to buy some of these down biotechs but there is nothing to hang your hat on. There is support here and there but I can't see exposing myself more with the risk-reward so against me. It sure isn't a time for the buy-the-dip mentality to surface in my psyche. Watch them buy the close and give me something to hang some optimism on--I will resist that and see what the PPI brings tomorrow. The only plus I can find is that the down volume today is even lower than the up volume was for previous days.
Time to fess up. My portfolio is getting to look like the dog pound. I keep trying to find a trend and that just isn't this market. I thought BioTechs were the strength--they are looking very frayed. GENE has a pretty bearish wedge here that could also be a simple pennant. It could complete to the upside but it is pretty iffy. CEGE has a very weak upside bias. MLNM is pausing and has some peaked stochastics.
Yesterday was a brute. From a nice gain that looked like it might trend for a whole day it turned into a very bearish selloff. The VIX is way too complacent. I just don't see any upside action that will sustain. And, we are coming into a normally weak period for the market. I don't see how we can have a serious upside here and will continue to try to reduce on the oversold rally we could still see--or is that just wistful thinking--no guess...
Wed 8/9
S: SDLI 367 BSC 60
What a fakeout day. Ended down $128. Guess I'm lucky and it is due to CEGE which I am ready to reduce here in the morn.
Raising a bit of cash here. Hope to raise more tomorrow.
Morning strength and then weakening as most days. But, I'm seeing an afternoon rally off the low. Nice change. Question if it can hold. Again, mostly weak volume says we keep rambling. The good look is at Accumulation:Distribution shows some nice divergences on a number of my stocks that makes me think we aren't in for a serious decline.
It is almost 8 AM and the futures are up and my stocks have started their climb from yesterday's debacle. Can we trend for more than 2 days?
I am looking at Banks. Not as a buy today but maybe in a week or so. They are a bit overextended. I look at a number of stochastic and they all point to being overbought here. They have, for the most part trended their stochastics and aren't likely to pull back to a true oversold stochastic on any but the very shortest term ones. I have one chart tab that shows three stochastics on one screen. The trendline for the strongest show lower lows and higher highs.
I am going to closely watch C, WFC, and FITB. That will give me a mix of money center, large, and regional. FITB is very appealing--not as a buy today but as a pullback entry. A weekly chart shows a huge trending stock that ran a 2 1/2 year trend that is as nice a chart as you could ask for. Since there has been a roughly 2 year consolidation. While looking for a short term entry at around 41 3/8, I could certainly vest a small position here and will start at 42 5/16.
Consolidations of such duration can indicate a major move. (FITB has moved into my area in a big way to capitalize on the Bank One fiasco/takeover of my old bank in a seeming attempt to take over the entire market. They should do very well.) I expect this pennant to complete shortly and breakout. That is the entry level for the less aggressive and an add to point for those who buy earlier.
If the Fed is done, Banks will lead the recovery cycle. That gets followed by cyclical strength. I never figure the cyclicals out right but will try to get aboard the banks in a timely fashion.
Tue 8/8
Hey you get a few crummy bucks ahead and the market smacks you along side the head. After today I have a miniscule gain for the month. Can the rallies ever exceed the pullbacks? I know If I had sold everything between 9-9:30 every day this month and bought it back later. I'd have made some money. What a way to be in this market...
The volume is very weak on most of my stocks. Those declining see it as good news. Those going up are hard to like as they go up--volumeless increases are not sustainable. So, I am invested here and not liking the pin action. Not the brightest move. On the good side, I can't see a serious drawdown happening to a number of the stocks at current levels where they are clos to support or consolidating.
The really annoying thing about this market is it split personality. Stocks look great in the morning and sell off in the afternoon. It seems to happen every day and the question only seems to be how much gets taken back. Make no mistake; that is bear market action. Also, the VIX is at a low that says there won't be much pop here. So we are oversold and not getting the pin action we need. Bad risk:reward stays with us.
Mon 8/7
B: BSC 59 1/4
I looked at the negative Barron's article as an opportunity to own this stock under it's high.
Thursday was an O'Neil follow-through day that I remarked on. One of the features is that it can be followed by a couple of day pullback. The call is still valid here and I am expecting a rally. That will be an oversold rally that should move us to the high side of the trading range. It is an opportunity to sell not go further long or ride.
I am using HGSI and MLNM as my tells for biotechs. Both are doing well which maintains my optimism for tha sector. I still look for a nice rally in that sector during the oversold rally. I see them failing to take out their old high but getting close. If they should take them out it would be bullish but I'd still expect them to pullback shortly after the act.
Weekend 8/5-6
I have come (been dragged) to the conclusion that this is an impossible market. Most of the damage is from the quick moving institutional, I am guessing. The rotation that we see is unbelievable. You see the Naz/techs drop and you see the drugs ramp. Naz up? Drugs down. One day it is this and the next it is that. I guess you can try to guess what the flavor of the day is but that is a hard way and gets you trading very short term. Nothing trends...absolutely nothing.
I keep trying to make the market work my way and that is foolish. The only thing you can do is play the high quality side in any sector here. You can play the second and even third tier stocks in an aggressive market. But that isn't this market. Trying to ride the marginal stocks here is the kiss of death.
I am still looking for a bit of a general rally. It won't be any more than a chance to sell stocks, IMO. And the risk reward factor makes cash king. I have to listen to that more than the adrenalin of trading.
Fri 8/4
B: SDLI 365 STLW 37 9/16
The last 15 minutes saved things and left me with a modest profit. That's the good news--thanks buy program. But my two "clever" buys into the "strength" are under water. So much for genius...
Boy, I just proved the interday trading is not my forte. Both are buyable lower at the moment. But, so is the Naz and I really wasn't expecting it. Although, reversal patterns can be followed by a couple of down days. What really twist my chain is I'm nearly fully invested and that wasn't a goal. Today could have followed through a whole lot better. But, it is early. I'm not counting on a rebound afternoon like yesterday, but who knows...Friday isn't normally the best day to count on that...right now it is looking like a typical bear day selloff.
Playing the Arb. The spread shows a 23% profit if it goes through and holds today's prices.
Yesterday was a day that O'Neil would say was a bottom. Such days have an 80% chance of calling a reversal. Good news for the longs. I own enough here but admit to drooling over JDSU and CSCO.
Want a flyer...a real flyer? This is an interesting little company in the process of remaking itself. Sold off mediocre business properties and now does green waste processing in California. I think all the bad news may be out of this dog. They have a patented process for green waste that should make them attractive to left coast/brain municipalities/citizens. I am putting my "mad money" on this one. It wouldn't be a hard quadruple. It even has a long shot as a viable, profit earning company. There is no technical reason to buy this stock. But, it does have earnings coming up and a chance to tell the world it will survive. (Yeah, the alternative is bankruptcy--but that seems pretty close to being priced in here...and their financial picture seems on the slow mend from their last report.) Don't bet the farm! This is a very thinly traded stock (OTC--not BBS) and easily manipulated--which may be happening to the downside here!!! Web site Profile
I Posted on Metamarkets (a favorite site) last eve:
Today was an O'Neil Follow-through day...1% increase on greater volume...this calls a bottom 80% of the time. The question seems to be how much follow-through is there? We have a lot of overhead here and that doesn't make one an eternal optimist. But, with the oversold situation on so many stocks we could see a very nice little oversold rally.
Stocks like MLNM in the Biotechs had a great day. It could be
a leader in calling for a biotech rebound. CSCO had a classic
reversal day as did JDSU.
Lots of positives on today's action but
it is hard to get carried away given the damage and time of year.
It is going to be hard not to buy more if we have a good employment
report tomorrow that would put a nail in the rate raise crowds
coffin.
Thu 8/3
S: GENE 20 9/16 B: GTHR 10 & 10 1/32
Huge Naz turnaround!!!
I am up nicely today but the volume again is weak. So, I don't expect it to hold unless these stocks have some volume. MLNM was the exception and had the volume. And MLNM is often a tell on the sector!
Bought the GTHR double bottom going into earnings. Picked up lot of new business in the quarter. Should surprise on revenue.
So much for day trading... But, I'd sell here again. The afternoon's hadn't been strong and the risk was too great.
Bit optimistic although just want back under water on that GENE trade. The lastest FOMC rumors are at ebb tide with more in the no move camp. That should cause a rally at some point. CSCO is coming back nicely here and is looking like a less risky play into it's earnings.
Nasty open with Comp on support. Decision time folks...
I have a feel that CSCO will thrill and amaze when they report next week. However, it is just too much risk/reward for me to take a real position. But, it is working with a tripple bottom off of gap up. That is pretty strong support and should give us a quick tell on whether or not it is REALLY weak.
Wed 8/2 Happy Birthday, Sis!
B: GENE 20 1/2 trading buy at close. 27% cash
I probably should of waited for the draw down that the open has brought to bios the last couple of days. I do like GENE but this is a trade. I'm looking for a buck or so in the morning. There are pockets of strength in the biotechs and that made me think we could see a continuation of the last couple of days of play or even a break out by my lagards. HGSI and MLNM were strong the last couple of days or so and I have to think they can carry some of the others. Problem with the lagards (and some of the leaders) is a lack of sturdy volume that says things won't get amazing soon.
I remain at 40% cash and my only wish would be to be at 60%. Bios are still on my radar but look too weak to do anything with. We are headed for the dog days of summer and a selloff of major proportions would not be a big surprise. But, I think we just flop around into the next FOMC.
Tue 8/1
For the last few days the bios I hold (CEGE GENE MLNM) have scared the h__l out of me. Now they look better. The 5 day charts of the first two have cup and handle formations. MLNM has an ascending triangle. If I didn't have full positions in them I'd be a buyer here if the volume were better. It could be a trade also if it is going out near the top of the day's range.
Looks like the oversold rally for biotechs is happening. Thank goodness; I was really out on a limb and it was a creaking limb at that. Now to try and guess how much rally we see...
Another so-so day, yesterday. Hopefully, we see a biotech rally soon. GENE is looking ok but CEGE is very weak and should have been reduced earlier; it isn't showing any kind of bottom.