Archives: 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000
Mon 7/31
I can't think of a stock I've succeeded with that was successful more than two weeks. This is a hard market. Stocks building trading ranges in cycles of their own. Sector stocks have big up/down moves within in the sector on no news at the same time.
I said (and believe) I've done a lousy job for the year and still do. But there are a lot of professionals that made it huge in the first quarter and are now down for the year. At least I'm profitable...kicking myself down the street...but profitable.
The prayer for today to the trading godling is to let me have the oversold rally. I will raise cash and maybe take a vacation for August-September. I can't see how it gets better from the rally and can see how it could want to test the lows. Time to pay more than lip service to money management.
Weekend 7/29-30
Well, we are just about out of July and I won't miss it. For me it was a disaster. I played it all wrong. That said; I am still up almost 10% for the month.
I almost dumped a bunch Friday. Then I sat back a minute and thought about going cash on a bad Friday and decided I could stand the pain another day. I did have one up day for the week...
3725-3760 is a support area. That is support. If we trade down through that The next real support seems to be around 3600. After that it is 3350. My guess is that 3600 is the stronger support that is do or die.
It is interesting to note that the Naz have been the only major to make a true bear market (20%+) and that the S&P and DOW have avoided one--on the ragged edge for that but still... So, the question seems to be do the averages sync up with an August-September-early Octover along the lines two years ago. The charts seem pretty similar.
We are getting those dueling Fed reports again. The "bad" Friday numbers included Boeing booking big bucks that are out in the long term and it wasn't as bad as it looked. Anything is a guess but based on the action the market has priced a mean FOMC into the equation already--Naz wise. The "real economy" stocks are not there. That could be the final impetus to move that old economy stuff into true bear status--DOW 9700 or so. And let the Naz retest and be the vehicle to start leading us back to golden times.
Lots of conjecture here and very little supporting fact. Just a scenario that could play out...or not...
If the folks out there are anything like me, they are holding for a rebound and ready to sell into it. That doesn't make any rally a sustainable one. Optimism is still not ready to throw in the towel. The VIX still can't get bearish. The TV isn't lining up Bear after Bear for interviews. The contrary indicators are just too weak for the Bulls to prosper. Their best shot is some consolidation or trading range. That's a rough market...duhh...
Fri 7/28
S: TRRA 38 1/2 GTHR 10 5/16 CELG 49 1/2
3620 is the do or die level--the gap up that started this "move"... If it doesn't hold then we just got eaten by a bear market rally. And, it is looking more and more like it.
Stopped out of TRRA with very small profit. Sold half of GTHR position for modest profit. Dumped CELG to raise cash which seems important here.
PHYS 65.44 is coming off of a pullback with improving volume. It has broken above the pennant and is at the point for making the riskier trading buy. The safe buy is when it takes out it's June 72.31 high. There is no resistance above it toward it's all-time high at 100.38. I consider anything with health or traditional medicine a short term play. The government is just too interventionist here for their long term benefit. Bush may change that but the dirty bird in hand ain't worth two in the bush. (Not buying anything; just talking here.)
CTI looks the buy and was featured in Worden Notes. It is a cheap stock . I'd consider it if it hits 6.25. Again, I'll return to reviewing such stock toward the end of the session.
JDSU looks "just ok" here. I can't tell whether it does the modest pullback and then takes out the 150+ high or pulls back to fill the gap at just above 100. I don't see it pulling all the way back to the double bottom in the mid 70's but it'd sure be nice move for those not holding it. I think it'd take a natural disaster for that to happen and probably have us too scared to buy.
The week has kicked my butt. I should have traded instead of trying to be an intermediate term player. Hindsite is great. I think this has been my worst trading since I started. If it isn't it is a very close second. I let my ideas outweigh the charts.
Actually, yesterday was looking better and better as the day progressed. I actually thought I'd eke out a profit after the nasty morning pullback. The last 15 was deadly as the sell programs damaged things. And the hour before that only mildly bullish. However, the action between the first and last hours were pretty positive. Not much of a recommendation for today; but, not a total bummer either. If we can open up this morning it might make for a Friday rally. The Naz is getting nicely oversold here. But, the trend is down until proven otherwise.
Thu 7/27
B: TRRA 41 1/8
Probably should have waited like I said. But it was in my range.
I would really appreciate a two day rally or better here! The McClellan says ok; the VIX says watch out. I will go with the Mc here but think it will be followed by a substantial correction that could coincide with the FOMC. The Comp's trend line remains intact. The ascending upper trend line is at about 4500.
I am looking to add to my 1/2--underweight TRRA position here. The charts seems quite strong to me. This is a very nice little consolidation on this one that came at just about the right place. I have a $60-65 target on this and $75 is a possibility. The safe entry would be at the 47-level breakout. I'm going to be looking to enter off the open plus and hour or two. I'd like to sneak in around 40-42. I might chase it, if that's what happens. But, that has been an easy ambush of late.
Wed 7/26
S: RDRT 3 15/32
Well, it looks like a biotech comeback. It was looking really nasty this A.M. and has turned around. If I didn't have a full position here I'd be adding to some of these stocks here. Drooled earlier but was just as afraid as anything. They were loosing support levels but rallied back.
Cleaning out the trash and taking the nice little profit. Unique these days...
Well, I watched the open and then moved off to do other things. Looked like a fairly safe thing to do. Boy was I wrong. The only good thing about yesterday is just about everything that tanked did it to support. But, that just means I hold it and the risks here are a lot less than they were yesterday in the Bios. But everything in my portfolio closed down. I feel more like a deer in the headlights than a technician.
So, I guess the smart thing is to buy. And, if I hadn't gotten silly buying the other day I'd be tempted to do that. As it is I wouldn't drop a dime more into this market. Sure wish I had the 50%+ cash position back right here...and if cows could fly...
Tue 7/25
S: PETM 4
As I said the other day, could be bought on a breakout. But, I won't...
One trading sure thing: if I buy anything today, it will be at or near the close. To trade earlier is pure stupidity...
Well, wish me a happy 60th birthday. I don't feel old but every once in a while I look seriously in the mirror and it shocks the hell out of me. (picture)
Send the pathetic bastard an e-card here.
Whenever I think I know anything about the stock market I will need to have this message attached to my monitor:
Yesterday was brutal. Down almost 3%. Last week every major down at least pretty much matched up to a major up. Today, almost nothing worked. Biotechs tanked while another one (MLNM) did a nice move up. Stocks started nicely and then slipped for the rest of the day. That is Bear Market action.
Just about everything I own that's down has pulled back to the area of major support. It looks like something will happen here and I'm not saying it will be good anymore. The positive is that most of my stocks are down on much lower volume. The GENE ended up being the exception today. I really thought it was going to bounce off its 50 day; instead it took it out to the down side! GENE had a rebound ready stochastic to boot. Although, the stochastic was warning with lower lows. GENE is dead on the last decent support for a number of dollars more lower. And it did average volume in tanking. It looked bullish yesterday and bearish today.
I have a portfolio that reflects the Amex Biotech Index. All in all the basket looks pretty good. There are some weak sisters but looking at both the daily and weekly charts has me still optimistic about the sector. That said, the time appears to be at hand where I need to be reducing instead of buying--hard for a perma-bull. But, preservation of capital seems to be back in the equation.
Mon 7/24
B: GENE 24
Couldn't resist. Bought near low with BTK doing nice recovery.
We seem to be at a cusp. We are at the ragged edged of current support and it looks like we'll see a down move. But, that says rotation to me and the strong index here remains biotech. I seem to have an unnatural attraction to them. Will it be correct? All I can do is stay tuned and wait. I am a bit more diversified than I was earlier. Hopefully, things pan out better for the week than they did last week.
Weekender 7/22-23 With all said and done I made $101 this week...
Well, I'm getting a bit more interested in the market again. Not wildly excited but interested. DUSA is putting in a really strong base and should be watched for the breakout that seems sure in coming. TRRA still has good money stream coming into it and seems to still be a buy. RDRT is hugging its upper channel and could be a buy on any pullback. LCOS seems ready to assault it's high. PETM looks like it will consolidate here and could be sold and rebought at a breakout.
Glancing through the pullback list shows some really interesting stocks. TRMS is a possible pullback buy here. SHP looks like it could be a buy on a breakout--the consolidation on this one is just like you want to see. ABSC looks poised for a big move. It's mini breakout turned into a consolidation continuation and really has this one coiled. Wouldn't be surprised if it pulls back to the old consolidation support before moving. FWRD could move on Monday--really nice Friday volume! FRTZ doesn't have the good consolidation--just a small one but it is in the same industry as FWRD and could ride along. FWRD looks the better because of the longer consolidation. SGP violated support and looks weak--not ready to buy the traditional drugs. BIOI looks ready to assault its old high after a huge run-up that makes you drool over missing it's move.
With the broad market, the VIX is still saying we correct sometime soon. So, I think the thing to watch is how these stocks might react to such a pullback. The Biotechs may be in a bit of trouble here. The S&P also looks to be under pressure. This isn't a market to add to any longs. I would like to reduce some on any strength. However, the McClellan Summation Index keeps making new highs and that is bullish. Overall it looks like we keep a trading range but it could be a broad one. We are at nice Composite support and could rally. Talk about a mixed bag--that is this market and it can drive one crazy. I can tell you why it should go up or down with about equal fervor--trading range!
Fri 7/21 see charts of interest
The VIX remains at a bearish level. The Naz isn't oversold or overbought. Hard to think big up here but it could take out that 43/4400 level and then correct back. I wouldn't see that as unhealthy but I will reduce my positions and expect a noticable pullback from those levels. I will hold some with the thought it could be a consolidation and those shares would be good to pyramid from. But, I'd only hold the stocks that I'd consider the strongest of the strong. In the bios that'd be MLNM and HGSI. CEGE and GENE at a slightly lower level.
The Semis confirmed their weakness and I don't want to even watch them for now.
Going into Friday I'm still up for the week. RDRT, LCOS and TRRA were winners with volume yesterday and look strong. The others don't have the volume and are questionable winners. Need to watch that volume. Going up without it is a danger.
LCOS looks like it could be attacking it's old highs. It has a bit of resistance inbetween. That resistance is a band more than a line. It is probably smarter to look at monthly highs for resistance and Jan/Feb highs are pretty close to the Dec one. My feeling is the weak hands are mostly gone here. I think the little pullback on low volume confirmed the 5/23 climax selling by the weak sisters. But, the key here becomes more and more the TRRA's price. LCOS CEO poo-poo'd the rumors of the merger not happening. But, he hasn't been the greatest merger prognosticator. I wouldn't be surprised it stalling at 70 and building a handle on the cup that will form.
SSTI was a stock I'd been following and it has been trashed by too many distribution days and looks more like a short than a long. Look at the red volume bars--that ain't good!
JDSU ramped but did have an entry point. It looks like it can take out it old high with gusto. Not my play here but it is a decent one if you like momentum.
Thu 7/20
B: CEGE 26 11/16
Took in more CEGE on it's weakness. Couldn't find any bad news and the price is below book. Gives me a slightly overweight position here that I'll reduce as it hopefully goes up to my average cost that about 3 above. It is inside the consolidation so should have a limited downside with a good stochastic going to oversold on the near term ones. Additionally, OBV for the day is positive. It has pretty good 30 option open interest that's a positive.
The new lows remain fairly benign so it is looking like this was a healthy pullback on profit taking that should run up the strong stocks here. Stay with strength in buying. I would like to see a bit of pullback today into a good close to pick up some HGSI here.
Greenie (Alan variety) is the key today. If he plays Buddha and smiles benignly to the Humphrey-Hawkins crowd, we should rally into expirations. Was a bit negative but not REAL negative. Looks like we rally.
Semis looked very weak to me. The stochactics on them make me think they will test strongly here. I don't think JDSU can drag them with it.
JDSU named to S&P changes it to a buy here as an index entry play. The chart seemed ready to make the lower high say it could test lows. That won't happen until after it's entry and seems fairly safe as a buy. It then becomes a must sell in the last hour or 15 minutes on the day before it enters.
I am still the biotech bull (but they killed me today) and I am holding. Even CELG looks a bit better today--not a leader though and still a stock I'll sell out of on the opportunity. Leaders like HGSI could be bought here but it is hard to vest a small position at such prices. The BTK is consolidating now on the same kind of pullback that ran off from the June high. It has done so and made a low stochastic--that seems both bullish and bearish. This could make for a stronger rally or lead to a test. But, I think the bullish scenario has better odds than a coin flip. Not a huge advantage though and something to watch. It looks like it could play out before the week ends.
Wed 7/19
Many Biotech stocks seemed to put in inside days yesterday. CELG continued to make lows and will be out on a bounce. Still considering things a bit bent but not broken. Lot of negative remarks about pulling back. The bears are getting back on TV. That could be a contrarian positive. But, the VIX stays too low for bullish results. Kind of a mixed bag.
Tue 7/18
Limit order for RDRT at 4 3/4. Think I'll hit it? Kind of iffy. Will watch it closely at the open.
CPI hasn't printed yet. Hoping for a benign set of numbers which will let this market continue. The Naz is looking ready to adjust down. Maybe we'll get a couple of more days out of it. That said; the bios still seem ready to make another move. They could pick up the rotation where the market moves another way on a pullback.
Mon 7/17
B: RDRT 3 1/32
The only mistakes for the last couple of days wass not buying enough TRRA and RDRT. That said; let me say that the VIX is making me wish I had more cash again. I am 21% cash. So, if I had taken full positions in the above I would be taking something off the table.
Most of the biotechs are looking good. My CELG is the weak sister that I'd like out of. Almost got out the other day and hindsite says that'd been the good move.
Bought overweight in shares (2k) and well underweight in dollars. This is a Worden Notes pick that looks very playable.
Fri 7/14
B: TRRA 35 HHGP 9 13/16 PETM 4
PETM has a strong double bottom that is quite wide. Is breaking up on volume and I chased it a little bit... so shoot me...
HHGP is an old favorite and breaking upside nicely. It is 3PM EST and my guess is a strong close.
The TRRA question has been how far does it tank. Looks like we have an answer...at least I'm hoping so. A 38 Fibonacci would mean 74. That's not a bad risk:reward ratio. Resistance is 39 and 45. I could live with either.
Got beat up yesterday. But, for the most part, the biotech decline was on poor volume. So, I remain the optimist.
Trying to buy some PETM at 3 3/4 this morning. Nice cup and handle breakout there. Will take it in on any morning pullback. 4 in pre-market after closing at 3 13/16. Didn't fill yet. Won't chase this one.
Wed 7/12
B: MLNM 119 55/64
Strong open and then the pullback. Bought MLNM on that pullback after two green bars which is the pullback entry signal. We'll see.
Don at Metamarket is seeing a head and shoulders bottom for the internet sector. Might be playable.
Tue 7/11
B: MLNM 132 1/4
Yesterday was "interesting" to say the least. I was down 500 in the first half hour. Got it up to 3300+ and closed up 1218...bummer. So, I went back on around 6 p.m to download data and checked the portfolio. I was up 3500 at that point. How do you make sense of this market?
4070 is the Nasdaq nut, IMO. It needs to take that (June high) out. But, the real nut is 4475. Take that (April Rebound) out and it makes a great support level and we have a chance for a serious new high this year. Say 5300... My guess is that we'll get a trading range somewhere in the 4100 to 4475 or thereabouts into fall. We could break through and consolidate above with a lot of luck. And that's my best case scenario. We need consolidations to repair and rebuild. And, biotechs are still my choice to lead the way. This paragraph and a quarter...
You can buy banks if you wish. But, I'm passing. Everyone says that's the buy--that makes me step back. Charts for the group are all over the place. The good ones look more like trades on a pullback. The weak ones are totally trashed. The bank index has taken out its old high and doesn't seem capable of it this pass. Same goes for the brokers. I didn't look at a lot of charts but enough to lose interest in them.
Mon 7/10
B: GTHR 11
Island had 200 shares at 11. Afterhours had run it up to 12 3/8. Appears I made a few hundred bucks off the scalping. Will see tomorrow. That's why I try to avoid making my trades elgible for after hours trading.
Really tempted to add to CEGE here. They own 12% of ABGX and have a ton of cash. That is worth about 27 bucks! so you are buying the stock for around $6. With over 200 patents issued and over 300 applied for that works out to about a penny per patent!
Well, the churches around here are doing their summer carnivals and running those chuck-a-luck wheels with the horrid odds. Reminds me of the market of late; the odds/charts look attractive and you still get taken. I am half invested in stocks that have been good to me or are bottom fishers delights. That's good enough for now. At some point today I'll probably shut the internet down and find something else to do. I am that excited about participating in this market.
But, Biotechs are still looking like they want to lead and remain my sector of choice.
Looked at banks a bit but not all that many look that playable. I am not the best bottom fisher but any number really seem to need to stabilize before starting back up. Exceptions like FITB can be watched here for a breakout that is very close and off a double bottom. Not exceptional volume but compared to overall volume it seems ok. Building a lot of banks in my area after the ONE merger made a lot of folks--me included--go look for a new bank. It'd be a long time before I'd look at ONE as anything but a short.
Fri 7/7
B: CEGE 31 1/2 CELG 56 1/2
CEGE was breaking out on volume. Had to play it... CELG looks ready to attack it high.
With the bios running, I am kicking myself for selling that HGSI!!!!
Well hindsite smacked me on the head. All the sales closed nicely higher. Only the ones I kept showed additional weakness. I'm still happy with that cash sitting there though. This is a nasty market...duhh... The gains of Monday have been consumed and added to a bit. Not a biggy but it'd be nice to see more than a one day rally once in a while.
People are recommending the semis and they are rallying. I don't trust it! I don't agree with them declining their revenues all that much but I don't see them as leaders and see this as a dead cat bounce that one should sell into. Why? Well, the volume was devistating. It may represent climax selling here but I think it damaged things to the point that it will take a long time to recover. I don't want to play consolidation and that seems the best case scenario--even if the Solomon, Smith, Barney analyst is 100% wrong.
Want to look a financials over the weekend. They could be the next rotation king. If the fed is done, they are looking a lot better.
Many biotechs continue their nice consolidation. It seems somewhat heartwarming to see them weather the ups and downs with fairly tight consolidation. The leaders are getting whipsawed while many lower cap ones aren't as volatile.
Of course the one I chose is looking like the exception. I am still playing it as a pullback candidate and looking for some upside today or Monday. The GTHR was bought as a earnings play. They have had a lot of new customers and should thrill and amaze when they report...we'll see.
Thu 7/6
S: HGSI 148 1/16 SSTI 78 RNWK 47 11/32 B: GTHR 9 15/16
Sold 3 with 1 winner and a bit of profit. Is it wrong? In this market there's no way to tell. If you want a guess, I could have held them. But, I'm a lot more comfortable with more cash. Looks like vacation time again. Cash is 75%.
Futures are up--fake out? Don't think so. I think yesterday's pullback was a bit overblown. The Naz is not overbought and should rally. But, there is nothing to disprove we have a market that isn't in a trading range.
My trading thought (I'm not a short term trader!) is that the semis are tradable for the analysts coming out shouting overdone. JDSU took the heat with an inside day and looks buyable. Some of the Bios are ramping while others still consolidate. The consolidating ones beginning to look buyable for intermediate term trades. Their stochastics are mostly at-in-approaching the overbought area and I wouldn't be surprise with some minor correcting that will give us a nice buying opportunity. As an intermediate term trader, I'm not going to commit a whole lot more here. I sent a bit into the market yesterday and would like to maintain the cash I still have here. (40%)
Yesterday seemed like a bit of carnage yet it doesn't mean anything bad on the Composite's chart. For me the day took back my Monday gain almost to the dollar. Those are nearly 2% swings and so we calculate zero volatility from all that. "Volatility is down" and I'm getting whipsawed like crazy. That's why I sold it all off for a few days a week ago.
I've owned the RNWK for about a week and it is starting to form a bearish wedge here. It needs to comeback with some gusto here to stay in the portfolio.
As to that SSTI stock, my limit sell missed by "that much" and I'm still in it to my embarassment. Hoping for the dead cat bounce to make me whole. Hope springs eternal...and misguided as usual...
Wed 7/5
S: WDC 4 9/16 B: LCOS 48 1/2 GENE 28
Got the LCOS may be a really dumb buy. I still think the merger will happen and that is the reason I added to my position. But, frankly, it looks like it could continue to correct. The stochastic is quite bearish. But Bertelsman says they also remain committed to this merger. So, I am playing it from the fundamentals.
Bought GENE after hours because it sold off in the last few minutes with other Bios strong. There was one very large trade in it (348K shares) between the bid and ask in that period.
Nasty day with SSTI downgrade bearing the brunt. Looking to sell into the hoped for dead cat bounce. Semis are going to be damaged goods for quite a while here. The WDC broke minor support. Probably could have held but was tired of looking at it. Trying to buy a bit of LCOS here at 48 1/2.
The VIX seems to be a fly in the ointment at the moment. It is very low and that usually leads to a setback. We've gotten too complacent here and I'm worried about that. The "pros" are coming back from the overpriced Hamptons and they may not be happy with what that cost them...
Tue 7/4
I have made money in this market but it sure isn't easy. It was fun being a one-trick-pony last year and buying the dips. This isn't that fun kind of market. I am contemplating how to establish better exit strategies. That's my weakest trading operation. In this range bound market for many stocks I am using the stochastic more than in the past and watching crossovers at or near the top to signal exit points.
You have to be bullish about the market but it sure is hard to want to commit. I am normally fully invested and gravitate toward that automatically. I am trying to change that a bit. Monday I was just over half invested and still pulled down over 2% profit. Instead of thinking which stocks to add so that we see 4% days, I'm looking for things that might have run the course. Although, I'm also seeing buyable longs here and that's creating conflict in my mind that are telling me to buy. AAPL could breakout. JDSU looks good on any kind of up volume as does CNXT. Even INTC is looking attractive after what it did Monday--but I hate thinking about it due to fundamentals--it is too heavily covered to ignore them.
Many of the Biotechs look ready to rumble off of consolidations. Others are ramping. I still think this is the safest area along with semis. But this one day up and then one day back market takes it out of you. That was the reason I sold down and took a few days off. It gets to you.
If you are looking for a trending drug development company play then look at the DUSA chart. It is hard to find a better trending chart than that one. And it just consolidate through a resistance level. Any pullback should be thought of as a buying opportunity.
Mon 7/3 (half day)
B: GENE 30
Love GENE. Dangerous. Good consolidation here though and the shortest stochastic is at oversold. Part vest.
Well, we are moving toward the summer doldrums with anything but; they say volatility is down. Not for most stock I watch. Even consolidations seem volatile. Today could be nasty to my recent buys. This could be a pullback day. It is hard looking at SSTI (up 1 3/16 in the pre-market) as it had a great Friday run that could easily have been an unsustainable breakout. Yet, the half day makes me optimistic that it passes with a somewhat positive vein. I would like to buy some GENE here and just may pick up a half position. It did a nice consolidation with a solid little lower trendline. The stochastics (I look at several time frames) aren't all that positive yet--yet they don't shout no. But, it has a money stream divergence going for it! And, it has good but not excessive volume in it's favor that is staying mostly above average but not the heavier buying of last week or so. That's why I'm saying the following:
I will not go more than 50% invested until fall. That's a mantra to chant and a fact I would like to turn into reality. This seems a trading bound market. If and when I take positions over the summer, I want to go with half weight positions.
My concern with a lot of these stocks is declining volume as they rally. It doesn't take much of that to bring about pullbacks. Meanwhile the Dow seems insistant on testing that March low--after taking out the monthly ones in between. That ain't bullish...
Dow stocks like IBM are violating their recent trend lines and have turned into a crap shoot. You can't be a big winner every day at a casino. They are setup to take one's money. I want better risk/reward plays. You don't own stocks that are as good a short as a long!