I won't change entries may correct syntax etc. -- Don't expect great literature!

This is my diary/commentary. I don't lie to myself. But, it is a view through my eyes!

Archives: 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Fri 6/30

B: HGSI 128 SSTI 7/8

The SSTI looks to have had climax selling. Lot of shorts and good comment on The St.'s Real Money site. The stock could be doing a dead cat bounce though...

Unless things get strange that's my buying for today.

Couldn't pass. It is now a buck under water. But it is close to 20 under where I sold it last. Wonder what the close will bring. Monday is a short day and a lot of traders could be missing. Could get wild...

Thu 6/29

B: RNWK 47 3/8 88

Ok, couldn't stay away. Bought a full position on RNWK. Chart looked interesting. Took out May high then pulled back. This AM's pullback seemed an entry point. Five minutes later it is looking good. Five minutes more is anyone's guess.

My thought is they will clear up position ahead of the close on Friday. The traders getting out late in the day could set up some buying opportunities. Will see if it plays out.

Wed 6/28

Still on the sidelines and enjoying the threashing back and forth. Not a great risk reward scenario playing at the moment. The bios seem to be consolidating and the SOX got it's hiny kicked. I do think bios are going to get marked up for the EOQ business and a good sell on Friday.

Tue 6/27

I had a nice little profit on the junk that's left. GTHR is the one .COM I like and it did volume today and closed at it's high. Quiet a safe buy here, IMO. Has lots of upside potential. One of the B2B's that will stick or get taken out at a premium, IMO.

Right now I don't have a compelling reason to own anything. FOMC, EOQ mark-ups, 5-day weekend. To much to game not enough oversold to buy. I'm relaxing and watching.

Mon 6/26

Being 84% cash is making me a bit dull. Didn't even turn on the stocks on the net over the weekend. Will wait here and see if there's a pullback. Might buy a bit today but probably will wait out the fed and see if we get the downturn toward our old low and how far it travels toward the old low.

Although, I must say that stocks like GENE could ramp nicely here in adverse condition in the overall market. I am going to wait things out a bit though. Could be a major mistake.

Fri 6/23

S: GENE 32 5/8 CEGE 27 11/16 HGSI 145 5/8 CNXT55 3/8 GENE 30 3/4 CEGE 26 JDSU 124

OK, it is time for a vacation. I'm passing the potential here and moved to 82% cash. It just isn't worth the hassle at this time. We'll see how dumb I am. Right now I'm getting ready to go out and enjoy the day and spend some profits.

CNXT was closed took the profit which wasn't strong Cash now: 54%

HGSI was closed; GENE and CEGE were reduced. Cash postion 45%

Now everything I own seems to be ramping. I would love to hold going into the FOMC meeting. Maybe they will let me.

HGSI was at the top of the list this morning to wave bye-bye too. And it has an announcement on a new test and is trading up 12 on very little volume. Can it drag the other Bios with it? Just have to wait and see...

The tape yesterday stunk. It has done it before and rebounded. My Bios have support but it is quite a bit below even their weak close. I'll probably ride things until noonish to see if yesterday was a real headfake. A couple may not last that long. Breaking 4000 so dramatically seemed significant. The Naz can't fall below 3800 and change and call this move intact. I have very mixed views. I don't think the Fed will do anything and want to be there when they announce. Is this one of those two day corrections that could see things ramp on Monday? I think it is but still will reduce by selling the weaker sisters and reducing the strong ones if the tape looks bad going into midday. I expect a down open but that has been a strong signal of late. So, I'm sitting here in a quandry. I can see a bullish scenario and a very bearish one. Stochastics are rolling over everywhere. The VIX is ultra bearish. You have to reduce in this environment and live with missing some or a lot of the bullish chance.

Thu 6/22

S: LSI 66 1/4 CELG 60 5/8 HHGP 8 5/8

Thought we'd get an afternoon rally. Instead we fell below 4000. With FOMC on the horizon I will reduce tomorrow morning...repeat after me...I will reduce...

HHGP got out with small profit--volume has been really poor on this one of late! Sold my dumb move near the close from yesterday, CELG. LSI has been ridden up/down too often.Clearing position. Sacrafice to the volcano god. I was expecting an afternoon rally. Instead we take out 4000. Not good! Last couple of days my feel has been 180 from the market. That seems a sign. Tried a couple of reductions between bid/ask and the price fell out from under them. Will see what tomorrow brings instead.

I'm feeling like I'm in one of those really bad hand-powered food processors they advertise on HSN or those infomercial shows, I'm getting bruised but not sliced and diced in the morning's market. I remain an optimist. Greenspan normally gives us a little warning before the axe falls and that isn't present here. So, I'm looking for an inactive Fed. Couple that to the EOM mark-ups that are on deck and we have something I feel safe holding into and looking for an afternoon rally that keeps the Naz well above 4000 if it doesn't take out the start of the year high--which would be a jolly nice act on it's part.

Beautiful week so far. If I day traded I'd be in the good pullbacks of the strong stocks on the open. The futures were mixed and yesterday was the same. They took them down on the open and there where some huge day trading possibilities as they started to tick back up. My short term worries are switching from today's market to the Fed and how they will affect us next week. Remember that we went into the last meeting pretty well and that was the start of this recovery. But, 50 basis point had been discounted already. Doesn't look like this market is expecting a hike and is discounting nothing. That could make for interesting times. The market seems strong enough to rally into the meeting and should then be overbought. Something to think about. It would make a natural pullback point without the Fed in the act.

I saw the LCOS weakness and still held it. A short term mistake but it is a long term play. But, it hurt to ride it yesterday as it took the portfolio down 3/4%. The CELG chart looks like it is 2/4--which was the start of the ramp. It's bop went from neutral to strong on both days and the moves were similar in strength. If the Biotechs run again this one could be scary. But, I'm thinking more like it doing a 50% pop to a consolidation or pullback point. We can't just run and run like Feb can we?

GENE is an add to if it can move above 39 with any volume today. That it's last resistance between here and it's old high. Sadly, I'm fully invested here and would have to get rid of stocks to by. So, I'm talking the talk; not walking the walk.

Wed 6/21

B: CELG 66

Full position on the breakout above the 00 high. Time to throw away stochastics. This is looking like the real thing--NAZ 4070 needs to fall and we should do that today. Yes, that is the one I sold two weeks ago for 47 3/4! Remind me to hit self about head & shoulders and wear hair shirt. AND, yes, I know I am chasing here; but, it looks like it could do close to 90, anyway...

Well, I got the new air conditioner installed ahead of a supposedly hot/humid weekend and while I did the market move from stinko to one I could expect to rally this afternoon in a big way. It won't quit or give up. Yesterday's positive though meagerly ahead close meant that all the Dow threw at it in negativity couldn't drive it down.

GENE is singing "Nearer my god to thee" while CEGE plays dueling banjos. Two great companies in a great sector. Come on CEGE break above the resistance already.

The fog rolled in yesterday. (Futures were weak this AM!) Will today be sunny or a storm? We had a real storm and lots of rain here overnight--good 1.5 inches. Should be grateful for the +.5%, I guess. But all the day did was cloud the issue a bit more-- to mix metaphors, it was kinda like kissing your sister although that's nice it is nice in a much different way. So much for the weather metaphor...

Nothing wrong with consolidating for a day or 3 after taking out the resistance. A bit of struggle upward here would not be out of line. But, I'm looking toward raising some cash back. I made money since those buys of last week and some of that profit needs protection.

PANL looked better going out than it did when I sold. That said, I'll stay with the sell. It is above its channel at this point and needs to consolidate in some manner here. If I'd had an actual profit on the stock, I'd have stuck a bit longer. I should have sold the LCOS instead. It looks much weaker here and TRRA looks like it will keep retracing and it is getting below the collar protection. However, TRRA is building it BOP strength here and has a stochastic oversold. It had a slightly bullish money stream divergence. It could be a buy on what could be a sharp V-bottom. Could doesn't mean will.

The CNXT chart I reviewed yesterday is not looking as strong today and needs to take out that upper trend line to be believable. The handle was very weak and I can't say it can go further without another pullback. That would make the cup & handle a trading channel and a poor call; but, the envelope shows a lot of overhead potential left and it has the best BOP in the portfolio. And the stochastic is low and giving that channel run up a chance to complete. But, the daily chart was very weak. Going to place a tight stop and hope it doesn't hit. Wish it was a bit more profitable. Wondering how long those Glass downgrades will hold and paint the sector. JDSU was specifically exempted in the downgrades and still got tared by that brush. Some carryover into the semis? LSI didn't show it.

Tue 6/20

B: WDC 5 1/8 S: CEGE 28 5/16 PANL 23 5/8

PANL seemed weak here and I decided to take the mini-profit and run. The market is looking a bit toppy here and I more nervous today.

Mid-day weakness. Not deadly yet. Still above water but the tide is unknown. I think we get more afternoon strength--that and a quarter gets one a phone call.

While volume has improved substantially today, new high seriously trail new lows. This needs to reverse to call this much more than a trading rally.

The CEGE was a small reduction which let me get into WDC with a full (share count not money) position. I like WDC here for a run at 7 3/4. As long as it stair-steps, I'll keep it on board.

Back to being lucky instead of smart and it is a good feeling. Seem back to being in the right sectors at the right time with about everything including the Naz taking out resistance. We seem to be totally ignoring the Fed here. I can live with that for a couple of weeks with the thought that they may get their revenge.

We all know that the 100 took out the failed rally. Looks like resistance is above 4300. We could consolidate here a day but I'm expecting better. If the big money gets active, we could see a strong up move. But, I want to stay nimble as this could still end up being a sucker's rally and a bull trap.

Changed the moving average on my volume bars to a 20 day from the 40 day I had been using. That and the improved late volume made things look a bit rosier. Summer volume, Monday volume, rationalizing or whatever is making me think things are likely the better for taking out resistance than the worse for volume.

Today could start a really strong short squeeze. That could ramp things. Time for the bears to feel our pain. I'm ready to share that. I think a lot of shorts were expecting a bounce off the May high to the downside. It could still happen but we did beat the high and today is a day where we need to continue.

I was in natural gas a while back; if you still are: Natural gas started falling on Friday after spiking to a contract and 20-day high. Might be your sell signal.

Yesterday got me back to within 40% of my high value for this year. Don't think we'll get it done this cycle but it is at least a start.

Portfolio recap: CEGE CNXT GENE GTHR JDSU HGSI HHGP LCOS LSI PANL USBC WDC Two are smaller positions to promote humility and the need to maintain my rules. The WDC is a petty cash trade that should have gotten real money but it got all I had left--135 shares...it was up 18.75% for the day on 166% volume. Still in reach for a buy, IMO.

I commented the recent CNXT buy on the charts page

Mon 6/19

B: WDC 4 3/4

Almost 6.5% profit for the day! And fully invested.. Doesn't get much better.

Today is more good news coupled to mediocrity. I am up nicely but few of the stocks have anything approaching average volume. I'm not seeing the big traders in the tapes very much. I think "we" are the market makers today. The average to is in the same shape with volume not confirming the move. Another good thing has been the gentle slope that most stocks are displaying on the interday. These seem like sustainable moves. I remain gently optimistic.

WDC is trying to break out here. Petty cash play that left me with 16 bucks in cash...

The market needs some strength here. A failure to move up from this level would be quite negative and make me want to go back to more cash.

Looking like a much lower opening for net stocks with another negative Barrons article on cash burn. YHOO is down 3 in Europe. YHOO is profitable and getting painted with the same brush. Looks like a good contrarian play at some point. Not my kind of play at this point but back at the 200 day would be hugely attractive.

I like BIOM as a cheap stock here with a nice, tight handle. Could do 25% here.

However, I'm fully invested and not buying anything.

Weekender 6/17-18

The Dow chart is looking very nasty with descending lows that could take it back to 9200 (99 high) without surprising me much. It is hard to see that happening without it dragging the stronger looking S&P along for the ride; although, it seems immune at this point. All the while the Naz consolidates nicely for an assault on the 50% recovery/ May High. I don't know how all these dueling scenarios can coexist; but, they seem to be there.

OK, the market remains in overbought condition. The Dow is suffering from that but the others don't seem to be getting hit here. The Naz and S&P are doing nice consolidations that aren't suffering while the overbought trys to correct. I am hoping for a bit of treading water while the overbought/oversold chart gets healthier. I don't see it going back to fully oversold here before rallying.

This is still a sell the rally scenario. This is still a time when preservation of capital is paramount. But, it is a lot less risky than the period we're coming out of and that's why I'm back to fully invested. I still like Bios and Semis and that my portfolio. If you weren't overly enthused with my CNXT buy Friday then look at XLNX that is consolidating on a high and pulled back a bit on Friday. Looks like it could run $30. Not quite as good a percentage play as CNXT, IMO though.

We want to remember here that optimism has remained pretty high in the face of a very stiff selloff. That isn't the way we start another ramping. We just may need to have our current optimism crushed before seeing a sustainable rally.

Fri 6/16

B: CNXT 52 5/16

My stock are doing great; if, for the most part, you don't look at the volume column. Things seem too weak. That is going to give the option guys a real shot at controlling the close. Don't want that to fake me out too strongly.

Started to try to buy at 48 1/2. Should have made a market order! Taking out resistance at the point I bought.

All the indexes are at the ragged edge that should cause something to happen here. The consolidation/trendlines/pennants are at that point that says a direction should complete soon. I remain the optimist on biotechs. We'll see how it plays out.

Triple witch; put on the seat belts. My mantra today is don't get too faked out.

Well, we closed rather strong. That happened a couple of days ago and was a fakeout. Lets see what this Friday holds; last week I thought it finish down and it was one of the better days. I have the good day feeling now--sorry! if I do succeed in being a contrary indicator...

Thu 6/15

B: HGSI 123.96

That one worked out for the day. Went out 3.50 better. Bought into the close but the traders are back and ran it down in the final minutes. In 20 minutes in the last hour my swing was over $2500 up! They keep saying less volatility...

Looking for Bios to rally and HGSI was one of the ones I like that was still off 4%+; took a full position. Looking for 140 in the next few days. Will sell if it fails to take that out.

Today's word for you Sesame Streeters out there is VOLUME--or the lack thereof... Stocks are getting move in both directions. This is one of those lack luster markets that can lull you until it is too late! Everything of late seems to have been a head fake. The market does need to go out stronger today. It is violating short term trend lines and needs to keep this consolidation phase on a fairly level course. Any noticeable weakness here will make the bears roar.

Well, the futures are currently positive. For what that is worth...

Things were bent a bit but not broken...far as I can see...which is foggy as all get out at the moment..

I have been concentrating on stochastic the last couple of days and may do something in the FAQ about it over the weekend. Longer term ones seem quite positive here and I remain optimistic on biotechs--even after yesterday's action near the close. The previous day closed strong and that was a fakeout. Maybe yesterday was another. On the other hand, short term stochastic seem a bit bearish here.

Wed 6/14

I'd love to see another little Biotech run. They could do it but they are starting to look weaker with lower highs on their stochastics. Not really great money flow. I think they pullback after a little run here. That won't be bad and I doubt it is back to the base; but, it could happen. But a good CPI today should overcome those obstacles--at least on a temporary basis.

There are huge cross currents playing out with this market:

Tue 6/13

Closed up one percent...after all that...volatility is supposed to be down, right? Anyway, anybody that owned the stocks I did today and runs stops probably lost quite a bit of money today. But, it is hard to sit there and watch these fluctuations.

Lost my connection on W98 weirdness this morning. By the time support got me running again the market was almost an hour old. Might have been a blessing although things were still tanking when I connected. Down about 2.5% at the moment but moving back up. So, I am holding here--complements of Microsoft. And, an hour later the loss has been halved. I find that this big, butt kicks seldom sustain and are often bullish precursors of the next few days. The funny thing is that others may look at this and wonder what I'm talking about--they are up. Screwy market...

Well they bought the close Friday and we went down on Monday. Monday sold the close strongly. I guess that means we go today. It makes as much sense as anything. Only fly in the ointment is the futures are up which in my contrarian midset should be down. What I am sure of is that we are using our frequent trader miles on floundering. We flounder another day or two and I move more to the sideline. This is one frustrating market!

I consider myself in the right stocks when my gains exceed the average by 2x or thereabout. This cycle hasn't produced that. On the plus side the decline today was also less than the average. But, my JDSU is what's really responsible for that.

I'm hoping for a good rally here that I can sell more stock in to. I think we could have a two day rally here but can't see it lasting much longer. We're just getting to close to being heavily overbought.

I'm reviewing market health here even more than individual stocks. The Holders seem to be all trying to pull off some consolidation--except for the HHH which looks like it wants to go back and put in a double bottom. The darn BBH looks positively bullish with a tight, 5-day handle on declining volume. It is making me think it could make a move to that Mar-Apr consolidation. But, the darn Composite is doing the same thing. We're oversold and have a right to be nervous and yet building cup & handles that lead one to think limited pullback or rally.

That darn PANL keeps ramping. I sell one for no good reason and it ramps. It is now only a pullback buying opportunity.

Mon 6/12

B: CEGE 26

Looser day. Bios were weak.

Rumors and Call buyers on CEGE made me add to the position but only 200 shares this time. Late in the cycle for these kinds of games...will see how silly I am...right now it is 26 9/16 so that ok...bought 5 minutes ago from the daily chart and improving action...

As noon approaches I see reentries for all the stocks sold Friday that ran up after. Less painful but I'm not rebuilding here. I'll let things play out. Being 1/3rd cash here has more appeal.

How often have we seen this? Strong open and then a selloff. I expected consolidation and that is hopefully what we are getting here. It is also a bear market kind of day. So, I am watching. Drooling a bit but watching. The late Friday buying should have set us up for something a bit better. I'm not surprised by the selloff but it is happening at a point where the Naz is approaching seriously overbought levels while the May high starts to look a lot farther away.

Another week! Thought is a continuation of the Friday rally. Objective is to remain nimble and go with the flow. Kind of a DUHH but want to keep saying that to myself to not get too fixed a view.

The Biotechs seem to be consolidating here and I consider that a bullish action. These stocks have, for the most part moved from bases and a return to those bases would be a major disappointment and cause me to look for a much longer recovery period for them

Weekend 6/10-11

How about starting the day witWaterhouse Diary.lnkh some TA humor--it is about the chart I'm temporarily showing on the main page. Then, stop by my whitepaper for a bit of seriousness.

Remember hearing (every day or so) that the bull market climbs a wall of worry. Well, a bear market descends the slippery slide on optimism. I have to keep that in the back of my mind as we wait for things to prove out. Without serious volume, I am merely marking time and can not in any way truly determine direction. The Naz could climb a couple thou or descend as much or lock itself in a trading range. That doesn't mean anything more at this point than I have describe pararmeters that are 2/3rds wrong. I do know one thing for sure, we are around the 50% recovery level and that is going to act as a fulcrum that can move us in either direction--we really need to take out the May high here to be intermediate-term bullish!!! And, I need to keep telling myself that either way we will have cycles that let me make money on the long side.

The CPI gave mixed signals. The CPI next week should/might/probably-won't clarify. And, that should set off another adrenalin-filled Fed watching season. Looking at the S&P and Naz I can't see how a rate high is priced into the averages. There is nothing to say that the Fed is done although we are playing it like they are. That means the hike--if it came--could shock the markets and bring about more meltdown.

On the other hand, Wall Street Pro remains, for the most part, negative. And a really weak CPI could bring more of that money in and give the Naz a chance at the May high. Things remain bullish enough right now for that to happen.

The VIX is pretty close to calling for a decline though it is not quite there. That could keep money sidelined. Additionally, the Naz will be oversold early next week. That just about coincides with the CPI release and makes things a bit scary.

I wonder how many people got stopped out this week. Just about every one of my stocks showed a climax selloff in their interday charts at some point. MLNM is such an animal on the daily charts. I closed that Friday and lost half the days gain. But, just how many were stopped out the day before and aren't getting any of the Friday ramp? It must be hard times for those who play the tight stop game.

My one regret is selling the PANL for no good reason--that bit me hard. The defensive sell of MLNM looks wrong now and it appears headed for 135. Although, it just may want to consolidate If it does that it should be a real runner when it does break out. I will watch it closely.

Fri 6/9

S: CEGE 25 1/2 MLNM 116 GENE 24 1/4

I reduced but the only one closed was MLNM. The others were partial (about 1/3rd) reductions. In hindsight, I could have held for more profit. I'm back to 1/3rd cash with this move and don't truly regret the action. Although, the subsequent moves and closes at or near their highs makes for a stronger Monday. Even so, I had a 5-figure gain for the day--been a while although I came close on two other days.

Anyone else out there feeling like Dr. Seuss' Push-Me-Pull-You? Stocks are moving like a super ball off a concrete corner.

One of the factors that has to play out in a Bear is time. Wounds have to heal. If we don't consolidate or pull back a bit here we could be tearing off scabs that have been building up for a month or so.

We could still make it to 4300 but that is getting to be a real stretch. A pullback there could take us all the way back to old support. I have the idea such a happening would be swift--internet time. The reason is: I'm thinking the FOMC doesn't increase or goes a quarter point with a neutral bias. That should cause a major rally and an all-out assault on the 50% recovery level. If we can get back to oversold in the next few weeks--and the fallback to old support would do that--we are then in a position to assault the May high and consolidate above.

Thursday wasn't the day I hoped for. I am not saying the market was a failure; it is more like an old NFL lineman hobbling around with arthritis--he can still do it for another play but it needs some time to work up to it.

I don't see holding everything into next week. I don't want to close thing out completely but I do want to winnow. This is consistent with earlier comments I made. This recovery seems to be running out of gas. I'll keep a bit of Bio and some others in case these mini consolidations resolve upward.

Many of my stocks are touching their upper band. Even the ones that were up today did so on weaker volume. Short term stochastic are peaking. If we don't pullback, most will consolidate at best. Too many stocks/sectors are very late in a run. Take the BVSN I bought yesterday and then sold. It has great technicals except it is over it's 2 standard deviations envelope. 85% of stocks cannot stay over that line and correct. (The other 15% can go on a tear and so I'll avoid going to "too much" cash here.)

For the short term, I'll only consider new trades on stocks above their 200 day that are oversold and at the bottom of their bands. In other words, short term trades with a lot of safety nothing planned for the intermediate.

Thu 6/8

S: CELG 47 3/4 MAGN 4 BVSN 53 1/8 B: BVSN 52 3/4

Sold the CELG as bios declined and it was holding with a profit of sorts. Got tired of owning the MAGN which hadn't participated--small gain. Bought the BVSN on Myst's recommendation and a mini consolidation breakout. Sold the BVSN as the volume lagged and it looks like it is going to take a while longer to set up.

Yesterday I neither bought nor sold. Additionally, I was playing early again as an admitted intermediate trader. That let me add on to go for the big gain without risking my capital. I'm willing to risk profits here. Not all; but, a bigger part than I should. Others will see that as foolish.

The market seems in really great shape at the moment. It took out another intermediate May high and seems poised to move higher. A good PPI on Friday could move the market in as big a way as the Friday-Monday move. A poor one will take money out of our pockets. Nature of the beast right now. If we were not so close to that I wouldn't be as negative.

The best case scenario is to take out the May high and fall back to around this level. We need a consolidation to go much further up from here. Beating the May high would set us up for a really nice move after a bit of consolidation. I could live with being range bound here for a number of weeks! I could love a 3-day pullback from the new interim high but would not be shocked by an early failure in that rally. We are in neutral territory and approaching overbought. We need to clear that problem to get a sustaining move.

Want the worst case scenario? We built a false W-bottom that is a bull trap. The real formation here is the M-top that forms when we fail to take out the May high. This sets us up for a major decline. Take all the profits you can here and run for the hills. If it were the day before the FOMC meeting, I might buy it...

If I am right, we are back to the buying the pullbacks that made us money last year. It is a bit premature but we should be able to breath a bit easier from here on out. Famous last words? I really don't know. I do know I want to stay nimble and not be a slave to my assumptions--not a bad idea at any time. And I want to stay alert for exhaustion gaps that could come at any time.

Wed 6/7

I ended the day ahead. GENE seems the weak sister at this point--after running bullishly against the trend most of the day. The others point to a rally tomorrow as does the taking out of a second May high. The latter seems very bullish and gives us a chance at the May high--which was a lot more questionable this AM.

CEGE was an amazing stock to own today. It had an interday climax selloff that got scary. It went out of the day dead even. Yeah, 25-25 were the paired closes. In the meantime 100K shares sold off in 1 five minute period.

It's about 11 AM and I'm playing this as a two day pullback. Risky with the Nasdaq no longer oversold. But, I'm gambling it has a bit more left. Several Bios are responding this morning and moving off their lows at this time. We shall see...

Well, I rode it down. That represented a huge draw down from the high of the day--which was a record at about 1:30. The day was a distribution day. While the rally has taken out the mid-may rally high, it is seeming to fail at taking out the May high. That isn't too bullish at this point but we still have a chance. I will reduce some this morning on weakness or in the afternoon with the same. Yesterdays buys appear to have been weak moves. Fundamentally, the market is in a position to continue to rally so I am not desperate to get out. But I want to be nimble here and willing to reduce positions. CEGE and GENE are larger positions than I've been playing. If we get another day of distribution, I doubt we'll take out the May high. Down on weak volume would be moderately acceptable.

My MLNM is still showing itself as the leader of the Biotechs and I'm using that as the tell. It remains strong and any weakness in that will be my alert to start the profit taking.

My gawd... After hours brought many of my stocks back big. I managed to get back 3.46% between the close and this morning. That's got me thinkinking the market has a chance here to keep the recovery going and take out the May high...

Tue 6/6

S: DUSA 25 5/8 PANL 15 1/4 B: GENE 22 3/4 24 1/16

All that and I ended up ahead $90...

Dusa seemed to be one of the weak sisters. I am selling it to try to increase my GENE position. Have limit in for GENE at 21. Sold PANL was weak with high stochastic. Filled Gene position as above. Had to pay up a bit to get aboard. (11:30 to 11:50)

I have said time and again that I thought the Biotechs would lead us back. It looks like that is happening. I'm not jumping to the out-of-the-woods category but I'm getting a lot more bullish. I am again thinking intermediate term. That is a major change. And, I'm fully invested to the long side. That said, I want to remind myself that this could just be a bear rally similar to the rally in 1931 (no, I'm not THAT old) that came before the latter legs of the decline that started in 1929. This is not a confirmed rally that will make us all into millionaires, yet!!!!!

While my tech stocks consolidated my biotechs rallied big. The Genentech news brought attention back to the biotechs in a big way. I was within a few dollars of my Friday profit. They bought all the Biotechs into the close and in the overnight. I'll review my biotechs overnight and possibly adjust a bit. The CEGE--one of my favs--is a 1.5 to 2x weight position at this point. The next resistance is the April high. This stock actually looks like it could make a new high in a reasonable amount of time. MAGN is a bio that hasn't really participated but has a number of product in various stages of development that should make it a winner. With the Biotechs ramping there are any number of stocks in the group that have participated or ramped yet. You can find good buys yet in the category.

GENE was a $2 in 98 and a $3 in 99. It went to a $57 high. It too has built a base that makes it very attractive--even after running 16% yesterday. DUSA is a stock that has a good chart and, like all the rest, still has an oversold stochastic!!!! Look at weekly stochastics for the better picture of how we could rally.

One thing I noticed about BioTechs was that last summer was a pretty good time for them. That's where they started the move that culminated in March. Can we do it again? A lot of the Biotechs (ABSC, MAGN, GENE etal) have been building bases that can produce strong rallies.

Mon 6/5

S: BIOM 9 LSI 62 1/2 B: CEGE 23 23 1/2

The Biotechs went out with a ROAR! There was buying like crazy in the last 15 minutes. My CEGE did a million shares in that time. The tape was full of block buying. I am now of the opinion that Biotech stocks are ready to really ramp for a number of days. The ones that did ramp with volume today have a chance to fly tomorrow.

Reducing in Bios. BIOM was the weakest volume one. LSI was a 1/3rd reduction because it was becoming too much of the portfolio. The CEGE breakout made me rethink Bios and I'm with a 1 1/2 weight position in CEGE.

Futures are down. Not a real bother but we could be at a high in this range and need to be more defensive here. And that means to pare off the weak sisters today. Do we have a mini-pullback and continue back up a couple of hundred points? It is possible but not anything close to a guarantee. The stocks that trend down into the afternoon are also going to be selling candidates. A number of stochastics seem to be in the peaking area. In a strong bull market that isn't a problem--that isn't the case here.

QCOM should weigh on the market early. The question is just how heavy does it weigh...

So, we get a good tell here. If the market consolidates a bit and then proceeds we can be more confident that we've passed the bottom. If we do pullback, we can expect to test the low again. It wouldn't take that much to eat a bit of the profits here--last week was VERY strong. Remember what happened in March/April and be ready to go more defensive.

Might move some money to banks and health care. Lots of good charts there. And any number remain in or near the oversold area.

Weekender 6/3-4

Bless MSFT; this is the second write of this. Win98 locked up on me just as I was ready to save. Liked what I'd done too...

The question on all lips is just how far to trust this rally. Even being fully invested as of today I am not overly optimistic. We had a good/real follow-through-day again to confirm the rally. And the volume continued to grow. That makes me mildly optimistic. The rebound was also broad with a number of sectors participating. This was not a just-the-techs rally.

The best thing that could happen here would be for the market to stall out around the April highs and then consolidate for 8 weeks or so. That won't make any money short term but it will make the chance of a glorious fall a lot more likely. If it consolidated twice as long then all the better! That'd runs us to the Fall and a rally there would be the real deal. (Yeah, I think we see NDX 4000 but it could travel all the way back at that point.)

My goal right now is to review the portfolio and clean out any dead wood or weak sisters and I do have what looks to be some. So, I'll share my thoughts on them with the diary. I am doing it in BOP order.

The concern I have is that we consolidate some around here and the pullback takes us negative or out. If it isn't at the April rally level or close, I'll take profits...I hope...

LSI bumped up against its resistance and held close at around 64 5/8--the May rally point. The goal that spells RALLY instead of rally is 73 3/4--the April High. DUSA took out resistance but closed at a 1/16th above it low--not as strong as I'd have liked. USBC stays weak and should probably be dumped but I hate to walk away from 6 weeks of consolidation. It isn't a big position in cash so I'll probably hang on to it. JDSU gapped, closed near high, did volume. I'm in love--for the moment anyway. 124.5 is resistance. HGSI closed at it high, gapped, and did ok volume. Another paramour. If it takes out the 115 resistance I'll be head-over-heals. HHGP is the love of my life. It is on a tear and heading for the 11.75 resistance in fine shape. The April high is well above that. Oooh, oooh, I'm even more in love. PANL was a bit of a flyer that is in the so-so category and may get left at the alter. Yet it has a fairly good base built with a little double bottom and has some appeal if it can start for that May high with a bit more gusto. GENE is still working on the right side of the cup and could peter out. Volume wasn't great. Needs to prove something on Monday. BIOM is another bio without the volume. I had thought Bio could lead or be an early rally participant. It may take some rethinking. It is the higher caps that are strongest. May have to start pulling out of some of these lower cap ones. CEGE had the volume and is poised at may resistance with some added resistance just above at the april high. If it clears that it has clear. My heart says this should be one of the best. You can't deposit heart beats. MAGN is the low priced spread and needs to start copying it's higher end brothers. Good company--needs to start proving it. GTHR hey, we should all own one stock that just embarasses the crap out of us--this is mine. CELG with all the hype and prospects it should be showing off. Instead its a kiss-your-sister stock. But, one of the better stochastics, he said...grasping at straws. LCOS looks like it will pull off the merger. Good noises from the CEO on Friday--bit to optimistic for me but what the hey. Going to hold it and see what happens. Praying it moves to a no big worry level of profit that'll let me watch it without having my heart in my mouth.

Fri 6/2

S: PKD 6 1/2 RRC 3 1/4 B: PANL 15 DUSA 22 7/16 8 BIOM 15/16 108 JDSU 15/16 MLNM 101 3/4

What bullish 1 day charts! Ran up and consolidated on a fairly flat line marks most leaders. Didn't get the BRCM so took in some MLNM instead. Glad it worked out that way as it didn't tail off much. Now fully invested. Do we take profits on Monday or ramp?

JDSU was on interday support so I went fully vested. It had a nice base and there aren't a whole lot of techs that can boast that. First full vest in a long time. Little bit later and the JDSU seems a mistake as far as finding a low could have gotten in .5 lower, oh well... Trying to get some BRCD at 132 1/2. Another support level buy.

Added BIOM about 11 A.M. which finished off the Datek cash. Still quite a bit at Waterhouse.

Does this rally take out the 3930 May high? The strength here says yes but we still have to wait and see. If it does, things could get interesting. And that puts the nasty ol' Fed back in the picture. Concerning the Fed, I'd thought we'd see another 50 points and followed by 25. That would have been the deadly scenario. Now it is looking like 25 point (maybe none) and that might finish it. That'd be bullish as it appears the 50 might have already been in the prices. Today moves that to 25.

Cleared the defensive oils on the ramp. Bought ittle good reason other than it was buyable as others ramped--look for it to follow. An hour in it has really weak volume and the play is looking questionable. DUSA was the good chart that cleared resistance and got it on what I hope is the day's low. Still sitting on quite a bit of cash that I'll try to get in play this afternoon after things settle out.

The payroll numbers couldn't have been better and moved the Fed to the back seat on the bus.

The futures are running out-of-sight! It looks to be a record day for the Nasdaq. The defensive play is out. NOT BUYING THE OPEN!!! Looking for pullbacks on leaders. JDSU etal. Maybe buy an hour or two in. If not, then early afternoon. This isn't going to be an easy market to profit from.

Looking at FITB this morning. It is breaking out of a H&S bottom here that says it is good for a $20 run. H&S are also a form of measured moves. It could also be seen as a cup & handle with similar results. They are moving into the area to capitalize on the Bank One fiasco. There taking over NDB sent folks in our area scurrying to find a new bank. It has been running decent volume with green bars predominating. Also, looking toward more diversity. The counter for the site is at 666, so you may want to cross your fingers today...

Thu 6/1

B: PKD 6 3/16 6 1/2 RRC 3 1/8 S: PKD 6 9/16

Went back in on PKD. Wouldn't ya know it the RRC built a large Ask pool a 1/16 below my entry. But, the portfolio went out within a few bucks of the days high. That is a good sign. I figured there'd be profit taking ahead of payroll numbers and they bought the close instead.

This is starting to look like the best volume day in a while. Remember to adjust for the season. Ignore the gloom and doom volume calls--if we were looking for big volume before it was in a sell off. Banks are doing better than they should--a bullish sign. I'm not sweating the Payroll numbers tomorrow--hope I'm right. My thought is if they are strong we get hit and then see a relief rally. I think we'll make it well into next week on this rally.

I got most but not all of the buy at that price. Moving nicely here and currently 6 1/2 (high) at 10:22. Sold by accident! Was putting in a stop on this and messed it up--first time for that! But, a few seconds later the ask pool at 1400+ made me a bit happier. So I bought RRC. Not the best way to plan one's trades that was doing volume and didn't have the overhang above it! Watch the next 16th disclose an even worse ask pool...

I have a limit order in for PKD @ 5 7/8--full position based on shares; about 1/3 weight cash. (RRC is a penny version that looks attractive-nice buying volume too.) ONI looks to be a hot IPO that trades today--fiber play.

I mentioned the Follow-thru-day yesterday. Well it was followed yesterday by a distribution day and O'Neil says 4 of those indices a sell signal for top. Can we have both? Probably, things are strange; why not stranger... On the good side breadth is better.

I am proud I didn't buy more yesterday--really liked the Semis. On the down side, I didn't sell anything either. Volume is probably average for this time of year and isn't anything bearish or bullish. The one thing that should control the market is that we are seriously oversold. Failing to significantly continue this rally would make a very bearish scenario to my mind. But, it is still a rally and not the recovery to my mind. If we start the trading range scenario, it could run into fall 01. It is obvious that many stocks could benefit from such a consolidation. It also complements the probable Fed outcome.

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