Well, it will be nice to get out of the month as whole as possible. I’m on hold. I’m hoping that the Biotech that I still hold will rebound in the new quarter. We’ll see…
Looking at the pullbacks I see some potential plays in things like restaurants and retail. A number have broken congestion today. Don’t trust the V-bottom ones for anything beyond the day. There are others that are better. Look for sharper left sides than the right side declines. They should have better legs.
Well, things are starting to look nasty…really nasty. Double Top on both Nasdaqs. Monday should be the real tell although I started going short today using URPIX and USPIX in my IRA. Cleaned out a couple and reduced others. It is time to hunker down for a while. I’ll carry some through to Monday to see what happens but am not expecting much more than a dead cat bounce.
Really don’t recommend going long the retail or any of the things that are working today. It could very easily be window dressing for the end-of-month. Trade long for the VERY short term, if you must. Nothing wrong with cash here.
A correction here could be the mother of… A recovery here could be the mother of… The problem is the read. Do we see resumption or a crash? I’m trying to play both sides. I’m holding on to my stocks with the best potential and that I think are long-term holdings or have that potential. And, I’ve bought some (25%) of a combo of URPIX and USPIX, which are 2x shorts of the S&P and Nasdaq, respectively. Not looking to get rich; looking to protect capital.
59 of the Nasdaq 100 are above their 50-day moving average. Let’s watch that for a decline. Money flow isn’t good. Not a lot to good news that’d make one want to add to their long positions!
We saw the Abby effect. Look out for next week. Some stocks are being held up by the end of quarter The JDSU’s of this world should see pressure next week. Remember the changes that came on at the start of this quarter?
Today’s pullback list shows a number of REITs. Last eve Abby mention them as a buy on PBS. DDR looks like an interesting chart and is yielding over 10%. When’d you last see a stock with yield in your portfolio? And, it makes you wonder if it can get back up to it’s old highs—that’d just about be a double. If you start looking at them, remember to look at volume over months to make sure you have something liquid enough to sell quickly. DDR is one of those and has a nice cup and handle to boot. I just might pick some of that up this is a sector with a LONG decline and a lot of “daily double” potentials but REALLY sad charts for the most part. DDR is trading at 13 times earnings.
What a yuck day. The BioTechs remained weak. Other likable stocks were also flat. Strength is in the big caps and that wasn’t that widespread. The Nasdaq is well oversold and needs to show strength. Dow is still slightly oversold. With the generals reordering their portfolios to look good for the quarter end, this week may end up a total write-off. Those with a bent can do short term trades on those stocks. I’d be out of them Thursday night.
I usually have an opinion…right or wrong.
Right now I can’t see a solid direction. I don’t
think we are headed down on any index to a great extent.
The bias seems up across the board. But, my thought is we
are closer to a trading range situation where stock picking will
be crucial. I feel BioTech will make a comeback here.
Things like CSCO seem too overextended to chase. The main
thing to think about is preservation of capital. Don’t
fall in love with anything – idea or stock. Be ready
to change directions. Tighten stops a bit.