Archives: 1/2002 12/2001 11/2001 10/2001 09/2001 08/2001 07/2001 06/2001 05/2001 04/2001 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000
Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.
1/31 Thu 1.9%
S: BFRE 2.28 2.40 $=10%
Let out 25% of the trading position in BFRE. And another 25% just before the close. It was a mini-breakout and might have kept it if it wasn't the end of the month.
Nice rally in the Biotech and general market. Unfortunately, it was on great volume for most of my stocks so the question mark still lies on top of the rally. Today should be most informative; although, it will be hard to discount the window dressing that the end of the month can bring.
1/30 Wed FOMC 3.3%
S: C 45.55 B: BFRE 2.10
Banks suck on the PNC worries. And if Greenie keeps his pocketbook closed, I can't see them ramping into the new. I lost 9%+ on the trade. Trying to average down on the BFRE as it holds support here. Got a partial fill at this point. Got the rest of the fill and it ran up on volume from there. Tried to sell at 2.28 which was on the bid but it did go out and I cancelled.
I wait in vain for the bounce that'd let me reduce here. The open today was bloody and I almost dumped by GILD at the low. But, a lot of the biotechs are doing a rebound from a really deadly open. Hopefully, that will have a bit of follow thorugh...
I am going to try to ride this morning out and see what Greenspan's effect is for the market. Right now it is hard to do as the biotechs are all over the place but continuing their down trend.
We've broken support levels here and really neeed to recover or be faced with substantially lower support level and a probable retest of September.
1/29 Tue 3.8%
Looking at about 10 AM and the open seems to have been a bit more productive than past gap ups. It staggered a bit for me and is now recovered pretty well. That's not to say we can look good early and then tank like yesterday but the action seems a bit more muted to the upside and we do need a day that doesn't look like a bear market day.
1/28 Mon 2.1%
Interesting: AMD has a 10 stochastic and is sitting on support. Looks like a buy here, right? Well, if you go over to my other commentary on this site you will see a discussion of steppers that do it 4 times. That isn't a bullish scenario. So, I'm going to watch AMD here as my tell for the sector. Will it stay on a bearish stochastic bottom or do a weak rebound? Or does it go after a new monthly high? I fear the former here but wouldn't mind be proven wrong.
The Biotech Index is looking pretty sad here. I remain bullish on the sector...whistling past the graveyard? I don't know the bad news with IMCL seems to have trumped the upgrades. I consider Biotech the core holding for this decade/century. The problem is: it is still a crap shoot. I should probably hold the BBH instead of individual stocks or spread things around more. We are certainly due for an oversold rally in Bios...if nothing else
Just before the open and it looks like another gap up. One of these days one of those just might hold...
1/25 Fri 1.1%
Well, it sure is a hard market for me. Trends last minutes it seems. Volitility seems the game and sector rotation can't last long enough to even make a short term trade. As soon as something breaks some direction it breaks again the other way. Today's nasty open (for me) is trying to creep back. I've been walking away from the daily feed and reading a book and then looking for the late trends which don't seem to click but at least I've avoided part of the silliness.
1/24 Thu 0.4%
B: HGSI 21.20 GENE 5.83 QQQQ .52 $=3%
Bought the daily support which promptly failed as Biotechs are under pressure this morning. They just don't have the traction they need it seems. Used up the petty cash in the Datek on the GENE. Bought a bit of QQQQ mentioned below
This certainly is a trying market. Fundamentals are so unclear you hear all kinds of extremes. Biotechs seem to finally be ready to rally on the upgrades and news. I have enough cash left to add to MLNM and average down a bit.
QQQQ got approval for its first test cartridge from the FDA. This is a flyer in my portfolio. It is a thin BB stock and will end up being heavily diluted as it seeks the cash it needs to commercialize their product. A reverse-split here, if it can't rally strongly, would not be a shock. There seems to be a reasonable, albeit high risk, reason to play a small position. It is trading at .46 so one can get a position for chump change.
1/23 Wed 2.3%
Lousy day yesterday. No other way to describe it. But, having gone oversold in the market it may end up a last gasp help. The morning was also down big but is coming back here with the Biotechs making a nasty v-bottom in the process. Oh, well at least it is back in the green. My BFRE buy of yesterday is blowing but in the process of recovery at 11 AM. The question for today is do we rollercoaster down like other days or start the recovery. Again, I'm thinking this will be an oversold rally and little more.
1/22 Tue 0.2%
B: BFRE 2.25
Bought the BFRE at about the support which is last month's high. ($2.20) Not great support but an obvious play. Have a half fill at this point in the day with only 61% of volume. Could go either way but it isn't a bad bit of bottom fishin...if it ends up the bottom. If not it isn't too costly to dump. Got the fill.
Well, Friday was deadly. And the market is on a tear this morning and I'm up nicely in the premarket--but that happened on Friday too. The AMZN news of a "profit" seems to own this mornings market and hopefully will move my BFRE up in the pre on low volume. And so it tanked on the open; but, that isn't unusual for this one. But HGSI and the other biotechs are all looking as good as they did last Friday. The key to today is what can hold in this market into the close.
1/21 Mon MLK Holiday
1/18 Fri 3.7%
Well, it is 10:30 EST and I've gone from down 1.85% to up about .3% and change. I am seeing buying in the Biotechs which is finally doing what I'd expected on Wed. My HGSI buys are now whole. Most others are doing well with BFRE and CYGN lagging. The CYGN is down on a secondary that I'd been expecting and is holding up pretty well under the conditions and above yesterday's low again.
It is looking like we've put in the low. The COMP is looking good BTX too. While the market is still down it is showing a recovery that if it can follow through on into the Friday close will be a great sign. It looks like expirations did its number the last couple of days and that a lot of them are unwound here and not pinning stocks as much.
1/17 Thu 2.5%
Nasty day yesterday. Writing this after open and 1.25%+ has come back to my side. The only weak sister this am is GILD which is struggling near its old high.
1/16 Wed 2.2%
B: STMP 4.26 HGSI 28.50 27.95 $=13%
Interesting: STMP is another of those broken internet stocks. It has a franchise to distribute stamps on the internet. It is coming off a very long consolidation with a nice little trend. It looks like a net survivor that could be a long term buy and hold. The little uptrend that it is showing makes me like it. A small position here could build into something nice over the years. It pulled back to previous month highs and then moved up yesterday on a disappointing day otherwise.
Bought a small position in STMP as a LT hold. Bought HGSI at the double bottom. Added to a full position on the continued HGSI weakness.
Lots of INTC chatter this morning that is negative due to reductions in capex. Futures are a strong down. How the SOX reacts today will say a lot about the future. Biotechs were mixed in my portfolio with some solid losses but I saw some rotation into HGSI with heavy bias to the buy side at support. I think the sustained weakness is ready to reverse and the tech weakness could be the catalyst to start lifting biotechs.
I'd have had a pretty nice day yesterday without a couple of stocks. That's seemed the story in the portfolio. I guess that the price of some diversity. GILD surprised me by going up again. It has had amazing strength and I was ready to take a profit if it hadn't reversed yesterday. BFRE also acted well but did it on weak volume. The same could be said for my CYGN position. GENE and CEGE were the dogs of the day.
1/15 Tue 0.2%
Interesting: FLA is poised for a breakout. I will watch the open and buy stop at 24.25 if it pulls back to that area or pick it up if it has an early plateau above that. It has a good money stream divergence and had a good up day on volume on Monday. Although, add a warning that bid/ask are going to be harder to play in this low volume stock and using an actual buy-stop might not be the wisest course.
Hindsite says I should have reduced more at the open. Sadly I didn't. Many of my stocks are at low level support and the overbought condition was certainly reduced yesterday. My feeling is we are going to get a trading rally here but that's all it is going to be. I want to sell the stocks that have outperformed and think about adding to those that have pull back strongly.
1/14 Mon 3.4%
S: KLIC 19.20
Raising cash and taking miniscule profit on KLIC.
Another late fade is making me more suspicious of how this resolves. I'm sitting at about my 6 week value in the portfolio. We have churned and churned. I had thought we'd get an upward resolution and now wonder. I have the feeling that this chrurning has done less good going into earnings than was my earlier hope. With thoughts like that the next thought is to reduce exposure. I'm sitting on only 10% cash and it seems too light here.
1/11 Fri 0.9%
Interesting: CDI is a classic buy. MACD crossing 0,0. Stochastic in lower range. 6 week consolidation. Closed at top of range and breaking out. It is one to look at the daily chart on about an hour in. Hopefully, it can open up and give a nice pullback entry.
Well, another day of promise that faded late for me. I had a great little day going and then things faded into the close. Not a big deal for a day that was range bound. This market will move; you just can't call a direction here. Biotechs are starting to look like they are fininishing their pullback which was greater than I had expected.
1/10 Thu 0.5%
B: GENE 6.85 S:HAL 11.59
Interesting: MATK confirmed its breakout from congestion on a bad day yesterday. A number of biotechs held up fairly well into the selloff. But, not all looked as good. GILD was one that remained strong.
I had "loose change" left in the one account and it was enough to add a piece to my GENE position. The Bollanger band for GENE is very tight here and it will move one way or the other. I'm betting it will resolve to the upside as the selling in biotech seems to have run its course. Locked in the small profit for HAL near the close. If it were a stronger company, I'd have waited on it. As it is, I should be able to find something better to own here.
Well, I was up over 3% yesterday and pulled back a good bit but was still hoping that the day would close out with me up more than that high. Then the panicked shorts started a rumor about Iraq being bombed (CNBC) and there it went. One thing about the shorts they don't get concerned with the truth--at least any on the good side. We'd had great breadth and hi:lo number going into the tank. The market was on a roll and I'm expecting it to restart today. But, I doubt the legs of this rally and see congestion ahead and that could be a volatile version. But, I think the long side is still playable here. Biotech was volatile before the "news" but moving nicely ahead until late. I had a couple of stocks sustain their moves and that kept me in the green. My gains at the close were about 1.5% and, obviously, my losses were also strong and drug me back close to even. The ability of the bears to affect the market this way wouldn't happen or happen as noticeably if we weren't so overbought.
If I had the bullets, I'd buy the open but as a trade.
On the good side my KLIC hit a 52 week high. And, BFRE was again huge on huge volume.
1/9 Wed 0.1%
Nasty day here without my big BFRE position. It did another big day and I'd have been up big if I didn't have those big losers.with one of my favorite stocks--CEGE--pulling back worst. Without the losers it would have been a 2% day But, you can play coulda/shoulda/woulda. CEGE is on important support here and hopefully will hold that and continue the consolidation. Failing here would turn the consolidation into a rounded top and look pretty bad.
The HAL buy blew. It needs to pop back here or go away. Although oil stock have been overdone and, except for the asbestos liability, this is a solid member of that group.
I need to sell more and buy less. I'm almost fully invested and it is making me nervous.
1/8 Tue 0.8%
B: HAL 11.30 $=4.2%
Bottom fishing in the oil sector. Seems a good risk:reward at this point. They are denying rumors that have affected the sector since Enron debacle.
Disappointing Biotech day. Now resting on double support in the BTK. The broad market looks much better but yesterday did it no real favor. It is consolidation land and consolidations can complete in either direction. So is the cup half full or empty? I look for sales and then look at the stocks I sold on pullbacks that were bad moves of late. Its getting hard to do much of anything here and I'd hate to not add back cash at this time and hate to give up gains that I've received. Catch 22 land...
1/7 Mon 1.2%
Lots of good Biotech news this morning going into the road show for biotechs. Lots of upgrades. Coupled to the afternoon recovery in biotechs give me a lot of optimism for this week. GILD and MLNM are up almost 3% in pre-market and HGSI is up over 1%. with active trading going into the pre. Also C is back to positive from the buy with improving volume. The KLIC spent Friday consolidating nicely but in a fairly broad channel. I good market today could cause a nice run in my stuff. Fingers crossed!
1/4 Fri 0%
Well, I under performed again yesterday against the broad market. But with the serious pullback by the BTK yesterday I'm pretty happy with the outcome. I still think that the strength of biotech late in the year has lead to this selloff and that it will quickly rally. That said, after hours trading lambasted my portfolio and it is down a bunch due to biotech stock getting hit worse. You can't trust after hours though but I'm expecting an early selloff today with the hope it can rally and stop the declines encountered this week. All in all I think biotech is a buy on the dip here. The "pig news" could be the catalyst.
I'd thought about buying AMD a day or two ago. It look pretty decent on the pullback but I didn't and missed the huge move yesterday. The chart shows it is a stepper and my white paper html discusses them. It has made three steps already and the fourth is usually a failing point for the stock. So, it looks like a possible very short term trade but not a stock to buy for a trend.
The KLIC trade worked very well. I'm up 6.56% on the average cost of 19.05 from the two buys of yesterday. That grabbed more than half of the move from yesterday. Could move to the 25-27 area at the best hope. I'm hoping to walk the stops successfully on this one. I needed a good trade. I was suspicious of every chart pattern of late and had a strong case of the insecures...
1/3 Thu 1.2%
B: KLIC 18.92 19.18 GILD 58.929
Interesting: KLIC has a 2 month consolidation. It has a stochastic and TSV crossover. (TSV proprietary Worden) The TSV has stayed positive during the consolidation. The stochastic is the weaker indicator with a lower high. MACD is showing a 0,0 crossover buy signal. It also shows a reverse head & shoulder pattern and a bullish wedge. The stock appeared to make an exhaustion gap up but consolidated which could mean it has become the intermediate gap. That'd indicate an 8-10 upside goal. Volume isn't confirming anything. It is a buy if it can close above about 18.50 on decent volume or show very strong interday volume in the breakout. I just might take an underweight position here.
Waiting for the early pullback that didn't happen. Broke above resistance on good volume so bought 1/3rd position with the thought to add later today if it looks right. Added at noon as it had built a nice shelf since 10:15. Now 2/3rd position. Probably will leave it there. Was going to play the AMD at the close as a mo-mo play. While I was waiting my GILD alert came up and I saw it on support as it tanked. So do you buy the so-so support or the mo-mo. Hope I get it right; the late serious tanking of GILD sucked me in. Biotech has blown the last couple of days which isn't unusual on something that ran up to sell off strong after the first of the year. Like the GILD play better and so I picked up a half-weight position in it.
One the 31st I sold some BFRE at the high/resistance @ 2.12. It was 2.38 yesterday. GRRRRRR! But, that was the trading buy and I still have the core position intact.
We keep having these days that make both bull and bear happy. The biotechs were really rapped yesterday but managed to show signs of struggling back. The BTK held resistance though. The stochastic on the BBH is in no-man's-land and needs to rally here and not make a lower high which would look deadly. Both the holder and the index really need to rally here to break the back of the bear. The selloff here is weaker volume than earlier. Resistance is above and support is below. It looks like time for something to happen in biotech land. I think/hope it will find major buyers. I've seen some of that on the tape but there's also been some block selling. I can't see adding here and I can't see selling. And one of those views is going to be wrong big, IMO.
This was the first day that the A/D line was better for the Naz with an 8:1 Hi/Lo for the Naz also helping.
1/2 Wed 0.8%
Well we have the media yelling year-end-selling behind us. But, nobody is talking about the selling we should see here as people unwind profitable position the next 10-days or whatever that they didn't want to see taxed in 01. And that has been stronger over the time I've followed the market than the yr/end B.S. We've some good support in that 1900 area which is close to the 50 day MA that's just below that level. We are managing to stay above the 200 day MA by a scosh and that's a support level that has flattened and wants to turn up. I'd really love to see that 200 day go positive! My guess is that new year profit taking is going to be light--people seem optimistic enough to not be ready to really unwind thing here. But that is a guess!
The moving averages I mentioned were simple. If you go with exponential, there's a whole other scenario. That 200 day was the resistance that the recent high bounced off of and we remain under it. The 50 day is dead on 1900. Under that setup we could be bullish with a pullback to 1900 in readiness to take out the 200 day and act truly bullish. If that happens, I just can't see a big move happening. We could see 2250...maybe... That area is a make or break and how we act there could be crucial. I don't see a full retest but the 1700 area is the test that can still keep bullish ideas alive.
1/1/2002 New Years Day
35 of the N100 stocks were up for the year--lead by NVDA. Almost 2/3rds of the R1000 and R3000 were ahead for the year. 9 of the Dow 30 were up. 231 of the SP500 were ahead for the year Even with the recent strength of the NYSE, the broader market seems to be the place to be for 2002.