Archives: 12/2001 11/2001 10/2001 09/2001 08/2001 07/2001 06/2001 05/2001 04/2001 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

12/31 Mon 1.3%

S: BFRE 2.12

Bid came in late I couldn't resist. Runs cash back up to 26%. Wouldn't mind it being more...almost bought the decline in CEGE late with that money but held off... (23.16)

I guess I should was poetic here but I am just glad to see this year behind me. I went away from trading this last year to try longer term trades. I did well with swing trades but always saw those stocks I got out of running away down the road. Dumb way to do things last year but I kept thinking we'd seen a bottom just like all the other idiots. Looked for a rally after the start of the year and lost my tail and spent the rest of the year in recovery mode. And now were at the end of that year as I look for a rally into 2002. I wonder if I have learned anything this last year.

IMCL is down over $10 as it got bad/delay news from the feds on its drug application. Should pressure biotech early. Hopefully, they can recover from the selloff.

The month was pretty close to flat overall going into the last day. The year we won't talk about...

Tax selling seemed way less desperate going into today. We'll see...

12/28 Fri 0.4%

B: ITXC 7.50 C 51.30

Opened a half weight (share basis) on ITXC as it looks to complete a little consolidation and is showing some strong volume. Although, the stock has pullback it is staying above the opening gap up currently. Bought a half position in C at about 1:30 on the base formed and at the bottom of the base. It broke above its consolidation.

My transfer of fund from the trading account reduced cash. This will be used to reduce my mortgage.

Early trading looks very promising and the pullback on my stocks haven't been as substantial as the last couple of days...at least not at 10:45... However, there can be a lot of diverging ideas going into this last full week of trading. Looking foreward to next year!

Biotech (BTK) is consolidating above 600 early. Very promising.

12/27 Thu 0.2%

Interesting: GRIN touted by Kensey on Clearstation.com. A real dog but a tradable one at this point. Looks to gap up on the open. Very volitile and thinly traded. Doubt I'd buy on anything but a pullback from the open as a trade and that isn't my normal practice. Has Potter and Ring action figures in primarily Canadian distribution. As a hold it is a dog. The stock once traded for 100 and has had 3 stock splits sence--all REVERSE splits. They turned 80 shares into 1.

Another day of early rally and then selloff but with a rally into the close. The market didn't sell off as quickly as my comments indicate about my portfolio With volume down, liquidity leads to silly actions. It also makes the crystal ball very cloudy. In other words it is a crap shoot and I'll sit on cash here.

12/26 Wed 0.7%

S: LWIN 20.17

Sold as it pullback into the afternoon with so-so volume support.

Transferred 20% of account toward mortgage. I've had more than that in cash most of the year and it makes sense to run it into something that has a better "return" than a money market rate. Hindsight makes me wish I'd done it earlier.

The half day trading ran me up almost 1% early but the bulls failed to hold the day on the weak volume. VIX and VXN on the low end indicate continuing weakness. Put/Call ratio on equities remains in its midrange and isn't indicating anything. I can't see us seriously assaulting overhead resistance based on the lethargy that seems built-in to this market here. But, it may be a bit promising as a sustained rally is usually based on a lot of indecision and weaker pullbacks and that is intact.

12/24 Mon 0% Half day of trading

I'm looking at charts this morning and seeing good and bad in almost every chart. It is a coin flip here.

12/21 Fri 1.7%

Support broke down yesterday and there is nothing that indicates it is anything but a top on the charts. Yet, it is expirations week and there have been some nice rallies after that takes place. So, I'm going to try to hold things together into next week. I had really thought yesterday would be able to at least hold levels. So, I'm disappointed and wondering if next week will be the positive I think we'll see. I'd like to see today close at least marginally up. I'd settle for 5-10 points.

But, the internals of yesterday's market give no cause for optimism...other than blaming everything on expiration activity.

12/20 Thu 2.1%

B: BFRE 2.02

Just a trade for now. (11:52 A.M.)

Late fade took me way down. It was the volatile Wed that Triple Witch brings about. After hours recovered all my losses. Those wacky after hours usually get corrected the next day but the two that really moved did it on massive volume for after hours. BFRE went out down .02 with 226% volume and after hours gained .15 and volume went to 241%. That is an 8.4% move. LWIN went out down .15 on 169% volume; after hours it went to up.682 and 212% volume. (+4.25% gain) And, I was kicking myself a bit for not getting out of LWIN that day. I guess this is payback for my NTBK stupidity. Of course, these are after hours silliness but they do point toward improvement for both.

The next couple of weeks could make the right call a lot of money. I think the Composite is capable of 2500 or 1500. And, I can't say which--although both calls are the extreme. My best guess is 2200 and change as a high during the period. The smart move is to look to take some profits--where they exist--by reducing positions and locking in some profit.

I am giving serious thought to adding to my home equity by reducing my account here. That be an effective 7.5% saving on my current debt. I would try to setup a line of credit situation that'd allow me flexibility in investing or maintaining equity. Seems better than owning bonds or letting it set in a money market account as a good deal of it has for the year.

12/19 Wed 0.9%

Nicer day yesterday in blue chips...probably due to GE. Still a decent A/D line in the Naz and ok H/L in both. But there didn't seem to be exuberance that portends a lot. We're in a period that can whipsaw us with expirations and year-end selling. It would probably be wise to play light here.

I'm still beating myself on the NTBK sale. Not because I sold it but because where I sold it. It hadn't broken resistance and the pullback looked too severe to hold. I got a case of the panics and it cost me. The LWIN rallied nice into the close but is still being thought of as a trade. Thinking about adding small position in some downtrodden that look decent here: AMZN RBAK and that type.

Need to leave early today to visit a funeral home; not a fun day regardless of the market.

12/18 Tue 1%

B: LWIN 19.87 10:36 A.M $=42%

Interesting: Regional banks and S & L's

Playing the upgrades on LWIN. Bought the consolidation pullback. Short term trade.

Nice day for my biotechs. BFRE's continuing pullback damaged profits by 0.5%.

Very decent market internals.

12/17 Mon 1.5%

Well, I'm back to an all biotech stock portfolio. 49% cash. Futures are indecisive.

12/15-16 Weekend

Interesting: NOK and PFE which Jim Cramer likes very much here. They both have bearish divergences in just about every indicator you could look at: money stream, stochastic, rsi...take your pick. They may be great stocks; they may rally on Monday like rockets but you couldn't give them to me today.

Sad I sold the NTBK position which came back strongly right after I sold it. It is now back up to my second buy.

I'd have had an OK Friday without the BFRE in the portfolio. But, it was a savior early in the week as others were tanking big. Still it is down big for two days. But, this is a core holding for me and I'll take the pain here with hope ever at hand. It has had a good run and needs some rest. However, support is way lower and it needs to use a Fibonacci for any support.

12/14 Fri 0%

S:NTBK 9.47 9.44 AET 31.00 CYGN 5.22 $=48

NTBK had a cloud cover candle and looks to pullback to around 9 here. I would reenter there and am taking a miniscule profit on the trade. Should have seen it yesterday. I'd been threatening to dump the AET and I took my wondrous 29-cent profit--excluding fees... Well, the morning pullback on NTBK suckered me. It is up on volume after that pullback. I bought the consolidation and low stochastic on the CYGN which I've played before with success.

When I sold the QQQ's right at the break I was thinking that it'd then hold and I'd watch it revive today. Still think that is probably the case but I was feeling overexposed. I feel better with close to 40% cash again. That should kick off the rally, right? Anyway, BFRE retraced and that had to happen sooner or later. It did it on a lot less volume The NTBK stock also pulled back and that was stronger than I liked and put the second buy under water but it was also a low volume pullback. I would have kept the Q's if Friday hadn't been the next day--it'd been to long since a Friday rally. So I'll expect a hummer of a one today that kicks off the Santa rally.

The other stuff for the day was decent in a bad sort of way. That kind of typifies the Biotech action which seems to have arrested its pullback. That's the important thing in my portfolio. Even (or because) of/with the VIX, this market can be more easily pushed down by bad news. That could make the biotechs attractive again and run thing up. Their fall did seem to be arrested as a group and that 'a good thing' for my portfolio.

12/13 Thu 0.9%

S:QQQ 40.04 $=37%

Interesting: AETH is at the high end of a broad uptrending channel. It is approaching resistance and would be a valid buy on a pullback into the area of its 50da MA. Has a good balance sheet.

The weak afternoon and going into a Friday made me ready to get out of my losing QQQ position.

The only thing that kept my portfolio from looking like Fido's backside was BFRE which had a huge day again on solid volume again. Next mini-resistance on it is 2.36 (+.16) and it does look on track to find a new annual high soon. But, at this point you have to look at it as a buy on the dip. It meant more than 1% upside to the portfolio gross.

Futures blow--even with the strong last hour it looks like a wild open. Biotech remains weak and looks to have little recovery in sight. Several are at or near support in the portfolio and others ( eg. MLNM) have none in sight. I rode all this down so much I hate to dump here but may have to make an offering to the trading gods. But, my thought is we are going to rally off this open and confirm the last hour of yesterday.

12/12 Wed 0.7%

The Fed did its dance and the market was still going up and things looked good. Merck announced some bad news and we faded badly into the close. The question is do we get that back and see the BTK move back above the trend or are we going to have more trouble.

On the good side, NTBK stayed strong on the day and went out at the high on good volume. BFRE also had a great day and is at overhead resistance. Hopefully the strength it has shown recently will follow through. On the ugly side was MLNM which really sold off late and early. At 3PM it was looking strong.

I was tempted to buy some stuff temporarily on the tanking. It just seemed like too good a day to allow Merck to create such damage to the market. Still a lot of mixed signals. VIX etc say more pullback. We could see things weaken further.

12/11 Tue 0.5%

It is almost 11 and the selloff has reversed but remains iffy. The BTK broke support yesterday and needs to rebound today to allow the trend to continue. It seems to be doing that but is still a bit underwater and going flat. I will try to reduce if it can't recover late in the day. Biotech should be a high beta buy for the funds that need momentum. A reversal here could be very strong and I'd hate to have reduced if it does come up.

Should have sold the AET the other day and its performance is suspect here. It is a good takeout candidate. But, I'm tiring of it. It isn't bad just boring.

12/10 Mon 1.1%

B: NTBK 9.80

Bought the NTBK on the breakout on volume. This was an add to on a 3/4 position that is now a 1.25 position with an average cost of 9.42. Nice blocks were being bought at the level.

I'd like to reenter the AMD on any pullback. I don't think it is going to do a whole lot through the end of the year though. But it has decent support in the 14-15.25 range and I'll buy some there. The position was an underweight one and the reentry would be the same.

I'd buy the CEBC back around 7. However, regional banks have been strong and this one might be one of the better in that lot and could break out. But, I don't see it as much more than a trade at this point. 2 of the last 3 trading days were distribution days. That would seem to indicate a solid pullback is in the offing. Pays a .03 quarterly dividend.

We are in an interesting period. It looks like we find out fairly soon if this is "the" rally or just another correction. How far we pullback is obviously the key. If we can do it with weak volume and see stocks holding their stronger support levels, we have a real chance for that being the case. Everything still makes me think it is a real rally but we can correct here and stay alive.

I like biotech more than any other sector as it is pulling back. But the HGSI and MLNM stocks which should be leaders are showing the clay feet associated with developing drug companies and bad news. I don't understand the premium on CORR that MLNM forked over. It just may not be as strong a biotech as their cash holdings would indicate. They don't seem to be spending it well. HGSI has spent well to this point and I like their commitment to manufacturing facilities.

12/8-9 Weekend

Well, Friday did away with the month's profits and a wee bit more. I expected a draw down for the last two days as I said on Wed. I just didn't expect it to get so serious on Friday. On the good side the Naz is holding above the gap and can put in a weak Mon and still succeed. Recovery off this pullback with that support intact would be a big plus. We're keeping that intermediate trend going still. We've made two steps of what is typically a three step move. Each is in the area of 300 points. That could carry us to the area of the 2066 resistance by the end of the month.

12/7 Fri 2.6%

S: AMD 18.16 %=29%

Interesting: ULGX (Urologic, Inc) which may make bed pans for all I know had a nice day on heavy volume. You can draw an ascending/bullish wedge and it's gap up held nicely during the day. But it bounced solidly off the 200 day. It has been a nice stock to own for the last two years. As a development company, that does shock me a bit. There could be a nice story in the fundamentals. It could be played today if it continues up with a stop under yesterdays open. If it can get to the old 52 wk high that gives a 5:1 ratio. But that October high is still intact and that is too close overhead. One you can watch but I'd like it better with some consolidation and a better stochastic.

Sell the news, right? Well, I sold the AMD for a 5% profit as it pulled back. It is bumping against its 200 day and looks to correct. Also trying to get the small CEBC position closed at 7.67 as it approaches resistance.

Thu had something for either bull or bear again. In other words, the day was mostly a non-event. It was a trader's market.

MLNM continued down after my buy. The market really hated the price they paid for CORR. I have to think (hope?) that the management was smart enough to not have paid a really stupid price--like the market thinks. That may be too optimistic when you think that management has PH.D after their names. Common sense isn't always a long in such a crowd. The big seller of HGSI looks done and that was a nice rally and one of the stocks that isn't so overbought.

The Naz did a decent job staying comfortably above the resistance/support which is also around the 200 day. If it can hold that I have to think we remain in good shape--even with the market getting heavily oversold. If it fails, I'll reduce some but expect a "reasonable" pullback instead of a major retrace. We do need to relieve the overbought condition fairly soon. But, I think we could still pull far enough away from the close support to be able to use that as the next rally point.

BFRE was wild with a huge early move on massive volume that tends to make one think of a blowoff top. But, it did enter the congestion area of the Aug-Sep move and that gives puts it in the middle of that congestion. That has its congestion between 1.75 and 1.85. The 1.79 close has it pretty much in the middle of that and the open/close was at that. So we have a doji and if it opens down and has a black candle it will look like a solid reversal. The question the is can it hold the support from the October high or does it go back to the longer term support. It might still do something major and it has a peaking stochastic to try to overcome. Not hard to guess on failure. Add to that the typical daily is anything but a trending chart and builds bouncy plateaus off the low price it carries.

12/6 Thu 0.3%

B: MLNM 30.50 S: ABC 60.39 59.35 UHS 43.80 $=19%

Sold half the ABC position which has been flopping around to buy some MLNM that is down a bunch on the acquisition. The MLNM had been an underweight position and is now a full one. The ABC had been slightly overweight and is now a 2/3rds position. Got rid of the UHS with a tiny profit. Datek is having problems today and I thought the sell order didn't get through. Fortunately it did and I'm looking at 43.05 currently. I kept trying to sell right up to this point and finally got a report of the sale. Might have done some other trades differently if it didn't look like trading could go completely down at any time. Datek is usually very good but today is having real problems. Moved the rest of the ABC on its continuing weakness for just over a buck profit. Should have sold it all early--hindsight...

The market continues to outperform me. So, I bought some QQQ's late. (Resistance at 44.12, 46.50, 51.30 with the weekly showing one in the 48 area and then it runs all the way to the mid-60's) Should have bought earlier but I kept waiting for a little better pullback and the daily chart didn't correct all that much. I watched that 1:30 little drop and waited too long. My hope here is for another good day and then a pullback on Friday--Monday to support. So, the QQQ trade is good in my mind for a day to day and a half. Such a pullback would be very bullish in my mind. The thing is that "my mind" is a collective thought and such group thoughts have a way of being thwarted. With all the money that is supposed to be on-the-sideline, we could play scalded rabbit instead and that could run any thought of correction well into next week.

Yesterday was definitely what O'Neil called a follow-thru-day. It was solid in all respects and is supposed to be over 80% correct in calling bottoms or breakouts from consolidation or correction.

The "safety stocks" in my portfolio and GENE weighed on a super day for my portfolio HGSI still had the big seller weighing on the tape at the close. The amount of HGSI that sold without touching the BID/ASK on the LII screen was amazing. There was huge buying sprees in HGSI that lasted for minutes where the LII never ticked. In that time the stock worked a fairly narrow range of about 0.20. At least he wasn't heavy handed like many of the institutionals are. With that being done so cleverly, I am starting to wonder what he knows that the rest of the world doesn't. HGSI had been pretty snappy until he showed up.

I'd long thought that the drop from 9/11 might be treated as an anomaly. Many chart came right back to old levels and consolidated. Many of those charts were consolidating before 9/11. I am seeing similar mumblings all around. That makes me more dubious that such a thought is the right one--but it does ax the V-bottom charge. BTW, we've had V-bottoms before and the bear market proved we can correct back to them. But, they had some great runs in between. The 1998 rally was based on another V and the current V comes off as a successful test of that bottom.

Overnight "things happened" and MLNM bought CORR and is down $5 and change in the pre-market. And I was regretting not getting MLNM yesterday instead of that HGSI buy. It does give a buying opportunity though that I might grab. On the plus side, I'd been talking about the possibility of my BFRE breaking out. Well, it did and made it to 1.70. Overnight it is up another .40 and the LII list shows heavy bids between the close and that 2.10 overbid. No news but something is going on. It'd make a good acquisition candidate.

12/5 Wed 1.5%

B: GENE 7.41 NTBK 9.25 QQQ 42.67 $=10%

Should have filled on the open on the NMTC and it got away. Added to the GENE at 8-cents above the consolidation. Bought NTBK which I'd been watching for a while and could resist no longer. Hopefully it will do better here than the regional banks which have been strong. The big seller of HGSI is back again today. Hopefully, he's about cleaned out. To his credit he worked the tape pretty well and the stock price held up better than one would have thought. Added the QQQ trade in the last 5 minutes with the view we could also pullback tomorrow and test which I would add to at those levels.

Well, the futures are in good shape again and we are poised at a breakout point that makes me want to blow out the cash. Both the SOX and NDX are at resistance levels and the next day or two could confirm the breakouts.

Yesterday's late buy on HGSI is looking good as it is up .99 in the pre-market. Regional banks look strong still and I'm tempted to add another one like BVC to the existing CEBC position. NTBK is another I've watched for a few days and it might be right. NMTC is a nice tech with the right product strength to prosper and riding a decent ST trend line.

12/4 Tue 0.8%

B: HGSI 38.66 QQQQ 1.00 $=30%

Added to the HGSI as I thought it bottomed with a fibonacci pullback. It then went a quarter lower. Damn. We'll see tomorrow. Last buy was at 31.48 so the avg cost on the position is 35.07. The big question is was this blow off volume or a portent of things to come. The QQQQ was an add to from a miniscule position that is still a miniscule position because it trades so thin. It is my long shot play in the penny arena. Interesting medical equipment play. Needs cash badly and will have to dilute big time or get taken out.

The bias yesterday was down but again it didn't have great conviction. Oil was strong and so were regional banks. They are tempting me here. UDS is trying to complete a pennant and had decent volume as it rebounded from the lower short-term trend.

The last hour was wild for my stocks and I was actually up as much as I ended down for the day. My stocks were seeing good upside from the early selloff. But the market, for all the moving around did it in a trading channel again. The biotech area is typical of those that have run. It is on the downtrend line and will either move into an uptrend or fail and remain in the downtrend. There is enough upside discussion about the economy that we have that going for us. But, the bull:bear ratio is starting to get silly again and there is a need to scare a few folks...and maybe that includes me. Breadth and volume were mediocre. As a positive, we seem able to consolidate here and work off the overbought situation.

ABC had a successful breakout and closed on its high. Did slightly above average volume. 52 week high is about $11 above. BFRE is trying to struggle through resistance and decent volume should put it across.

12/3 Mon 0.5%

Welcome to the Santa Claus rally, right? Well, you can't discount it although a mild correction would help along the way. The hard 8 roll would be taking out a resistance level and then using it for support/consolidation. Getting Osama or the Anthrax person would be an example of something that could cause such a move.

12/1-2 Weekend

The breadth was about flat Friday and that pretty much described the day. My stuff did try to rally nicely late but then we got the last half-hour selloff that took me slightly negative for the day. All the markets outperformed me for last month--even factoring in my strong cash position I was outperformed somewhat. The semi/tech run caught me with my pants down and I was reluctant to chase. It looks like I made close to 6% for the month.

BFRE closed above the Oct high on strong volume. Next week should be interesting. I like this company long run and it is a large position. It is also still under water and one of those stocks I rode too long. But, it keeps performing and could be a real long term winner.

I'm at war with TD Waterhouse. I've had a miniscule position in QQQQ and it is revisiting its lows. Thought I'd pick up a few shares. It is a BB stock with horrid volume and not worth a real position. Anyway, I put in a good 'til canceled order in at a buck. For the last two days the bid has been .99 and my offer is not being shown. I got a hundred share fill and then it has just sat there. Friday there was a trade at .99. I should have got my fill and didn't. If it never fills it isn't a crisis but it has me P.O. at TDW...again. TDW is not an online account I would recommend--even to an enemy. On top of that, they raised their fees this year. The only thing I like about them is access to Goldman research and the fact it is an IRA with checkbook capability that I can use in an emergency. But for making actual trades, Datek runs circles around them. I get better and quicker fills for a lower price. The cash there is the last accessed in my trading and I've pretty much run without trading the TDW account for many months.