Archives: 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000
12/31 Sun
Well 2000 did end up a plus year. But that was by pennies in the overall scheme of things.
Compared with the above I guess it wasn't so bad--but I really'd have to do a lot of rationalizing to come up with that for a premise. At one point I was up almost 80% and blew it!
12/29 Fri Loss: 1.75% Cash 13.7%
B: AMCC 75 23/64 ONXX 13 15/16 S: AMCC 75 9/16 ONXX 14
Was going to play the S&P add on AMCC and then saw ONXX drop like the other day so I switched to it. Didn't get the pop and sold it for pretty much a wash. The AMCC did worse so that was a good move in hindsight.
The Naz continues to struggle back; can't say it is on a roll but it looks a lot better here. 2530 is the short term trendline support and further support is at just over 2500. That's the most important level today and should hold. If we can rally off yesterday's close and we have a weak futures upside that at least won't drive things down at the start.
Yesterday played a weaker roller coaster with the rally into the close. I had a 2% day at one point that was all taken out at the low and got 2/3rd back late. I'll probably continue to hold the small cash position but may add for a trade if I can get another one that looked like ONXX did the other day.
12/28 Thu Gain: 1.4% Cash 13.4%
Keep wanting to buy something but finally maintaining a bit of discipline. The open looks weak but I expect another day that recovers toward the end with a modest upside result. Probably get the same for the last day of the year. Sitting on everything waiting for the "January effect" which will, I hope, do better than the "fall rally" that killed us all.
12/27 Wed Gain 1.75%
B: ONXX 13 1/8 S: ONXX 14 3/8
The ONXX was trading at low volume and got tanked so I bought some (500 shares) for a trade. Son of a gun; something worked for a change.
Yesterday was almost a non-event. This period between the holidays is usually a strong period. We are not seeing it yet. We need to move back above 2550 to see any real promise.
The number of inside days I'm seeing in the chart this morning is a bit amazing. Lots of promise; but, how often has that been dashed...
I'll probably reduce into that strength. I have the fear that, while the tax loss selling is over, that there will be gain selling after the first of the year as players with profitable positions lock in gains that have been hard to come by. That'd reverse my old thoughts to hold the stronger stocks from the decline--at least for a while. Trades starting today will close in 2001 so we could see early signs of that at once.
12/26 Tue Loss: 1%
B: WFC 55
Got a partial fill in the last seconds in adding to the open position. It worked off the mini-consolidation and I'll play the extra stock into year's end.
Well the question is can we rally here for a second day after the week and a half bloodbath. There is support (15 min chart) at about 4225 and we are close to resistance of the exhaustion gap down that is at 2550. It seems valid to stay long here but I want to see more rally to add to positions. This market needs to start seeing some positives.
This market needs to rally or see massive damage that could take us to below 2000. We are at levels not seen since early 1999. The next support is at 2000--the 1998 high. If that goes the next support is in the mid-1800's--the 1998 high. In reviewing this on a weekly chart it is interesting that the 200-bar average became 200 week on and that is the low we bounced off of last week. Seems a bit of an omen. Enough already here!
The attached chart is my attempt at perspective. I left it big as this diary is about to expire and won't be a difficult load after this week. The blue channel is based on the blue average a 40-bar which translates to a 200 day. The green line is a 200-bar. The gray channel is a Bollanger and the magenta is money flow. The lower area includes volume and a stochastic.
The support of the 200 day coincides with the Bollanger and is a level that was never seen in this bull market. The stochastic has reached a oversold condition that has only been seen on rare occasion and those marked major lows.
12/22 Fri Gain 7%
Went out at the days high; been too long between days where I could write gain. Also managed to move slightly back into being profitable for the year and wondering if it can stand up.
The seven days before yesterday were down days. During that period the market moved 30 billion or so to cash. Was that the year end tax loss selling and is it almost over? That's my hope. I am invested and staying invested with the knowledge that I may have further losses. I think the risk reward here has moved to the high side. If we were to get a huge up move it would seem unsustainable. I'd like to see a few days with modest gains or little volatility on low volume. To me that would signal a buying opportunity and I'd add to the open positions. I have enough (12) position in action but under weighted for the most part.
I have not traded as I should for this year. I kept looking for a rally that never really happened. I was so wrong on intermediate direction as to be a laughingstock. And, I did fairly well at short term calls. I just expected to get modest pullbacks that were always deadly ones that left me set up for taking losses or holding. I held and that was wrong.
12/21 Thu Loss 2.9% Cash: 23%
S: BFRE 1 31/32
Sold the BFRE I bought Tuesday; still have large position. As soon as it sold the darn thing on a limit sell and it then ran up. That's the kind of luck I've had of late.
Sick day: the market and me. Yesterday my year went from green to red. Couldn't stand success.
12/20 Wed Loss 8.2%
The Fed was better or as good as was expected but that wasn't good enough and it tanked the market big time. I bought the decline; thought that the overreaction would come back into line. Just kept going down. At this point, I concede. It is impossible to game this market. I should go to bonds. That is about my return for 2000 but I wouldn't of had all this "fun" in my life.
So, for now, I just give up on trying to figure out anything. Take HGSI. Fundamentals to kill for: Cash; production facilities; patents; product. If there is one survivor here, you'd have to say they are it. And, it can't get out of it's own way.
12/19 Tue Loss 5.5% Cash 7%
B: YHOO 28 1/8 BFRE 1 31/32 MLNM 64 1/8 QQQ 64.117
Hey, was I right yesterday or what? Well, it is or what. I did warn in one part and I played bull in another. Today is no major change. The only change is we will know the will of the FOMC at 2 P.M. or so. I expect a messy market and some resolution to the (insert direction here) side.
Bought nothing but that's due to Datek not taking my orders at about 10:30 or thereabouts. I wanted to buy back the MLNM and HGSI that I'd sold and did get the lows right for the day. It cost me about 4 bucks on the MLNM and a buck and change on the HGSI. But, they will probably be able to be bought cheaper than that today sometime. So, what the heck...
12/18 Mon Loss 1%
Well, futures are nearly limit up. If we succeed and rally I would say the rally is intact. That would give us a higher low and the infant start of the upward trend would remain operative. I will reposition my MLNM and HGSI position on the pullback that should happen from their entry into the N100. I still have half of those positions in the portfolio. I don't intend to replace the SUNW; although, it did look like it was trying to repair the damage it received.
This is an important junction point in the market and could give us our fall rally starting late and extending into the rate declines that we might anticipate from the FOMC. This could make for a multiple month rally and I say a good rally here would make that better than 50% after this long cycle of trading ranges and declines. Don't think a huge move is what we really need or want. But one day after Tues or Wed we should have a good up day on high volume that would help confirm. The next couple of days could be a head fake and a bit of cash wouldn't be horrid to hold back. If this is 'the rally' there will be more opportunity with less risk.
If we slide here, the support drops in 200 point increments and breaking the old low could mean we see 2300. While I expect a Fed reduction no later than Jan, earnings reports could be the negative that makes us continue to fail for a time. So a rally today could be little more than short covering going into tomorrow's meeting.
The action in my WFC stock on Friday was very promising and may be an add-to here.
12/16-17 Weekender
As the days dwindle down to a precious few, we are faced with a losing year for the Composite. We had a cupped bottom on the daily chart with a last half hour selloff. We made a lower low and a higher high in the short term run based on only the last November pop. So it is a real mixed bag--what else is new. You can draw ascending trend lines off this but they don't yet have any reliability. A bad Monday could cause the downtrend to be confirmed and negate the weak but countable higher high in the chart. Had we rebounded on Friday we'd have had a much cleaner lower trend line that would have looked more reliable. In that it failed, the real look to all the above is more ominous than positive.
If we don't hold the line on Monday above the old lows it would seem that all bets are off for the 3500 level that I was looking for at year end. But, stranger things have happened at these lower lows as we have had some very quick and strong pops off of them. The FOMC is the wild card here. It may be forced (long shot) to lower at this meeting. The capital distruction has been massive and a new lower low could pressure their hand to do more than announce a bias change. I don't know if it could happen but it would let that 3500 level be made into year's end.
12/15 Fri Gain ~1.5% Cash 27%
S: SUNW 29 1/8 MLNM 67 1/2 HGSI 86 3/4
Everything rallied late; SUNW had broken support and was sold "too early" but I'm glad I'm out. The other two sales were half position sales taking advantage of those stocks being introduced to the N100. Such stocks usually pullback the following day and I will probably reenter the stocks on Monday.
Well yesterday wasn't pretty. Another roller coaster for the "better" stocks with sector damage on preannouncements causing hurt. Even with that, I still believe we are poised to have a good move here and still think 3500 a possibility by year's end. Looking at a 15-minute chart we see a triple bottom formed here that could give us a very strong upside. As we approach 2800 from this point, I'm looking for an explosive move. But, first we need to hold at 2700 and the Globex is say we open weak.
C and CMB seem poster children for the concern in banks. If you look beyond the money center stocks you see stocks like WFC continuing to consolidate in a very nice manner.
12/14 Thu Loss .25%
S: AMD 16 9/16 ONXX 15 1/8 Cash 13.5%
Still looking for a rally into the close; sold the whole AMD position on general computer weakness; sold a bit of the ONXX. Thinking a bit of cash might come in handy.
Well, after 36 days the election is over. The waiting destroyed over a trillion dollars of capital. Now I have nothing to excuse my trading.
I'm still playing this like a two day pullback that will continue the advance. I am expecting that to happen today. We will see. The Globex is slightly negative and I don't have a problem. Rallies have been happening from such a scenario. The charts yesterday were horrid. There is nothing in them that calls for a rally. My view is all hope.
The hope is in the PPI numbers adding to the call for a rate reduction. There is also a bullish bias to the triple witch that should play out today.
12/13 Wed
Well, the election seems over; how many times have I thought that? This time it looks like fact; although, But, Gore was still rattling sabers after the announcement. Unbelievable.
Looks like a rally in the futures. Concerned by how strong it will be. We really need to take out 3000 and really attack the 3200 level to depend on this rally beyond being a trade. A lot of stocks look to be changing trend but the negative side of me wonders if they can do it without building some bases. That points to either basing or retesting someplace up the road. But I want to play the rally and hope it can take out the 3200 level and do it's consolidation around the 3500 level but I'd settle for 3200.
I'm also thinking that I should raise cash at the end of the year, regardless of how this plays out. There is always some selling out of years end and the volatility of this market makes me think the risk side will be substantial and I need to quit ignoring the risk side as much as I have.
CSX is an interesting stock. Looks like a massive H&S bottom formed and that the stock is ready to break out. All a H&S bottom is is a cup and handle with another handle leading into the decline and subsequent recovery that is what the cup is. They say that H&S's are important and I often wonder. Little weakness though with the oscillators that makes me a watcher instead of a player. And the whole pattern is 'messy' and not the greatest. But the right side is the 'steeper than the left' kind of pattern you like to see.
12/12 Tue Loss 4.6%
S: HGSI 85 7/16 B: SUNW 35 1/8
Reduced overweight position in HGSI. Bought the SUNW thinking it was oversold and had a climax selloff yesterday.
Pretty steep angle to the move yesterday makes me think today is going to be a day of consolidation with a modest pullback possible. If we can hold above yesterdays triple bottom, I think we'll remain intact for a continuing rally. I'd like to see less and the Fibonaccis are 2914 and 2882. Either would keep me a happy camper here. And the upper one would make me ecstatic. If we break below the lower, I'd have to reconsider things.
I think we got to a point yesterday where the market was discounting a Bush win. We'll get a modest pop if he wins the contest. Gore might cause a retest but it should be a short term one. The two candidates are that much apart to make the market seriously take into account either from here.
Actually, the S&P is looking a bit stronger than the Naz right here and could move against any consolidation today. Dow seems weak.
12/11 Mon Gain 4.8%
S: YHOO 33 9/16 B: WFC 49 3/4
Sold the open on YHOO (good move) and position in a good bank that should benefit from the Fed's less bearish bent.
Well, the futures are limit up but that still is keeping them below fair value. They were negative before the limit down after the market closed. However, I don't see that as much. Today could be whipsawed a bit by politics. But, I see the current position as a HUGE buying opportunity. One could go long at any point where we are rallying with the 2825 level intact, IMO.
Financials could be bought and I intend to rotate a bit toward that end. That depends on how the biotechs are performing as that is the area I wish to reduce in. Not because I don't think they are going to be huge but to get a bit more diversity into the portfolio. Almost all year I have been all or close in biotechs. I think that needs some correction heading toward the new year.
12/9-10 Weekender
Well, the Florida Supreme Court tanked the market. Within minutes after the announcement futures were limit down. My gains for the day were taken down by over a third; 2% in seconds after the decision as people rushed for any stock that was halfway close to the close. Before the day was over I'd lost over a third from my highs--which were ticking my portfolio at its high for the day at the close. Certainly some of that is uncertainty. But, the stock market hates Gore. Doesn't necessarily love Bush; but, it hates Gore.
I can see why. The last several weeks have shown us a very unattractive candidate that may soon be our president. But, worse, he has demonstrated a tenacity to get what he wants that is more important than anything else. He has surrounded himself with some very unattractive people who have a similar morality.
If you didn't see the PBS special on the youth of the two candidates, you should. Look at it closely and it will scare the crap out of you. Gore:
There is more; but, see it for yourself and make up your own mind. Neither one came out of the special with a lot of pluses but Gore is a terrifying item. Why do I say so? Because he must have his way and even the President of the United States can't always have his way. I fear his misguided feeling of intellectual and moral superiority will couple to his need to have his way to place the country in dire strait.
We have survived mediocre presidents; I don't think this is the time to see if we can survive a megalomaniac.
12/8 Fri Gain 8.8%
Well, the Naz futures are limit up as I write so it looks like we get the ol' Friday rally. Today is going to go the way the courts go. If we resolve this today, it could make Tuesday look like a mild move. The uncertain part is that that move could be in either direction and the courts control that. If the give Gore the win, I don't think "resolution" will be a positive; it will lead back to the US Supreme court. If Bush gets the judges he should get the Gore white flag and we rumble into year end.
This is not a time to brag about being fully invested and I am not bragging. The risk reward here is huge and I'll end up with a losing year if it moves strongly to the downside.
My Tuesday investments that brought me to fully invested were a dumb move--in hindsight. The only winner going into today is GLW.
12/7 Thu Loss 2.9% A day that will live in infamy--but hopefully not in today's Nasdaq!
The pullback I talked about yesterday got a bit overdone. I don't think it turned off the uptrend though. The BoA warning and the Intel rumors seem to have caused a lot of disruption. The Florida courts didn't help. We could pull back to make a double bottom here or touch the gap up and set up for another Friday rally. Don't like that scenario; it would keep a lot of fund buyers on the sideline. This market has to be strong enough to force in the weak sisters.
My buying since the big rally started is pretty much under water. And, I'm fully invested. Would really like to add some WFC here. The stock broke out of congestion interday yesterday and pullback right to a close above the resistance of the congestion. It is prime and should do 14 or so above the breakout.
3013 area would take out the short term resistance at the November spike into the November gap down. 3200 and change would be the next resistance and set us up for an assault on the October spike. You could add several more resistance levels. So, we have a lot of resistance and I don't see us overcoming all of it in this try. The 64-dollar question is what's reasonable to think about. I think the year could end around 3600 at best.
The BTK seems one of the strongest indexes still. It is approaching the resistance of the Nnovember spikes on a short trendline. It is well off the lower trendline of that pennant and does look poised to attack that level on any overall market strength. Don at Metamart talks about attacking the old high. I think we could see the 715 level at best. But that a pretty nice move.
12/6 Wed
S: IVX 40.42 NT 41 13/16
IVX another "safety stock" that I can do without today. Trying to get it swapped into NT. With no cash extra to speak of I'm limited to a price or reduced quantity.
Well, it was hard yesterday to not buy and this morning my cash position is a few hundred dollars. I closed the defensive positions and rotated into the old high flyers. The only "bad" buy yesterday was AMD--the one stock that closed the day below my purchase price.
Today we need to have a good day and see some confirmation that the funds are in there buying. That doesn't mean we have to have an up day. A very modest pullback would be a plus rather than a concern. A weak down day that went out strong would be ideal to my thinking.
I think that we will get the Santa Clause rally this year. Many funds had been raising even more cash toward expected redemptions. Those redemptions just moved to the sideline. Just like those who couldn't give up their bullish views early enough, there still should be some bears out there that haven't unwound their shorts. The Fed meets on the 19th and we should rally to there on the Greenspan speech of yesterday. I am looking for the fund managers to really climb on board to try to beat the S&P for the year. With so many down more than we dumb investors that will mean they will pick favorites and make them do it in spades. If we can find a few of those now for our portfolio, we will get a free ride right into the last day of trading for the year. Won't be surprised if I go all cash on the last day of the year.
The bearish side of me says this isn't over yet and it is very possible the lows have not been reached. A bit of a recession is possible here as the Fed unwinds things slower than it should. But that doesn't mean we won't have a solid bull market come back next year. The promised Bush tax cut should be watered down by the 50:50 congress. That is a good thing. He should get some of his "private SS" program done. Things like that are hard to torpedo in their entirety. And they will have a large, positive impact on the market. Both side will start on the first day of congress running for 2002. That means less gridlock than the past. Neither side is going to want to be the grinch. And the publicity of a Bush presidency will pressure both side to perform better. While Bush isn't likely to see the "honeymoon" of past presidents, (a function of the media as much as politics) he will be position to gain a lot more consensus than his predecessor.
Last year most of my profit came in the last weeks of the year. This is later--we only have 17 trading days left in the year--but I think I can get this profit up to respectable levels for the year. And I am playing toward that happening. But, I do plan to start booking those expected profits earlier than I did last year. Won't get out of everything but I'll rotate more to the defensive plays after the fed meets and gives it more promise. Probably after the normal 1st of the year pullback that is a pretty consistent happening.
12/5 Tue Gain 10.6% Record Nazdaq gains on large volume
S: AA 29 11/16 MEA 30 1/8B: MEA 29 3/4 GLW AMD 68 16 3/8 YHOO 41 40 7/8
AA opened down; recovered after I sold; wanted to rotate into higher beta stocks--AMD GLW. Sold my defensive buy on MEA for a small profit and bought YHOO.
Most of yesterday's loss was taken out in the after hours trading! Ended up down next to nothing.
Well, we continue a divergence between the listed and OTC stocks. I am going to add a stock today. MEA looks very attractive here. It is breaking out of it's decline and is green on just about any indicator you could pick on both a weekly and daily basis.
Biotechs just can't get out of their recent rut and are marginally below their BTK 200 day. Any further weakness could be quite damaging but their support at the recent low which would make for a double bottom at 555. Its upside potential is at 763 with resistance at 665.
I am starting to think that the listed stocks may have an advantage through the end of the year if Greenspan should make a conciliatory speech today that points toward lowered interest rates. The cyclicals are stronger here than the banks seem to be. But that may reverse shortly.
Yesterday the Florida courts smacked Gore and the market rallied. It would seem his last reasonable chance to win is if the Bush ballots are struck by a meteor. And, it looks like he'll wait another week for that to happen.
12/4 Mon Loss 2.6% (after hours reduced to .3%)
Looks optimistic going into the open. I am still biased toward seeing this as a trading rally. But, I do think it is very possible this will be one that can sustain itself for a while and do a lot toward healing the damage seen of late. I could live with another trading range that is higher and gives us some consolidation to work from toward a real recovery.
Probably will sell the AA today; reaching resistance with an overbought stochastic (very short term one) that is rolling over. However it does have a bullish wedge outside the short term pennant that it took out. Under normal conditions I be really enthused with this stock here. And, it is one of those that'd really benefit from a rate reduction. If it could take out 29.50 today on good volume, I would reconsider and move to the intermediate term stochastic. It is a strong stock; the problem is general market tenor. The AA made a breakout early in the day that it sustained and will be held.
Also would like to get the ONXX down to a full position. It is approaching it's upper Bollanger band and looks more iffy. Like the company but owning a 1.5x position here is not a comfortable situation.
12/01/2000 Fri Gain 5%
S: AHP 59 3/8 B:ONXX 15 3/4
Took the ONXX from an underweight position to an overweight one
If this is the rally, then a marginal safety stock is not something I want to hold.
This market went through another day of foot shooting. It didn't miss it's foot but again it grazed it and just limps a little worse. What looked early and to many like capitulation ended up just another ugly day. So, the new month is at hand and the futures are pointing up. So, we may just get the ol' Friday rally and start another recovery. We sure are oversold enough to get a nice pop. So, I'll hold here and see what things look like later in the day.
Have to think it doesn't end until we finally hit that 2300. Yesterday, I thought it could happen in the next couple of weeks. Given the nature of this market a move up/down in that timeframe would seem normal in the same way it did to the inmates in One flew over the cuckoo's nest. And the market does resemble Nurse Ratchet. So we could see 3000 before we see 2300. With the saucer bottom that formed at the end of yesterday I do see promise. On the upside 3200 is the first goal. Then the lower trendline on the 3600 wedge that is just under 3400 and finally the 3600 resistance itself. Really need to watch those points closely if we get a rally.
The VIX ran up further but didn't violate its Bollanger band with the authority of the last couple of days. It kind of says the rally won't come until another bad day but it does qualify for a reversal signal to start a rally. A lot of those I follow looked strong late. Even those you'd say got really toasted (like CSCO) showed late strength that makes it look like a lot of weak holders were dumped and the stock is actually stronger here. That's been the problem; you get signals that diverge from each other. Strong signals that should mean something are false tells. Lot of smart folks think we get a rally and I could sure use one!
Maybe I should just take the $29.95 for this month' data and plunk it down on a Oija board. My last month end comments hoped for a better November than my October. Didn't happen. Down about 20% from those closing values.