Archives: 11/2001 10/2001 09/2001 08/2001 07/2001 06/2001 05/2001 04/2001 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

11/30 Fri 0%

B: ABC 58.03 $=35%

The ABC was an add at the lower trendline. If it pulls back it will be gone but it is looking good early. ABC is now a full position.

The market seems to be really battling and finding a way to try to keep moving higher. The nasty Wed was followed by a constructive Thu. What today holds is an enigma. I have a tenancy to believe in a continuing rally or reasonable pullback based on time of year. I'm going to look at buying some different stocks today. AMZN and ADM are on my radar.

The A:D was again nicely positive but not to a definitive move and below old levels of strength. New high/low info did nothing to really confirm the rally either. So, thing remain as they were with good but not great and no real confirmation of continuing strength. Things are cloudy.

Again, my CEGE stock was almost the whole story. After a huge Tue, it pulled back sharply into Wed's close. Thu it rallied and took out the high where it had gapped up on huge volume. Volume was not quite as strong as the Wed sell-off but was very strong none-the-less. CEGE has resistance at 25, 30, 33 and is at a long term trendline here. Moving higher would move the trend to a bullish one.

11/29 Thu 1.9%

I was ready for pullback but it got a bit out of hand as the day progressed. That was a bear's day. I was expecting some pullback but it was less orderly than I'd have liked. You don't get everything you hope for. I keep telling myself that all my recent sales were wrong and will try to hang in there and watch the various support levels for a clue.

The REIT and regional banks arena got near the top of my volume sort yesterday. That doesn't make me want to take added risk on the riskier side that I gravitate toward.

11/28 Wed 2.3%

Yesterday's results look good. But, CEGE alone would have caused a 2.2% return. That means the bulk of the portfolio lost 0.7%. That'd be more in line with yesterday's less than auspicious results. We're at resistance levels and this is a good point to get turned back. I could see the Composite losing a couple hundred points here with out damaging the intermediate term outlook. My thought/hope is that we can at least temporarily clear the resistance to weaken it for the next assault. I'd like to see us reach 2150 or so on the composite and see the Dow nicely above 10000 for close. That's fairly optimistic in this overbought market. It wouldn't be a huge disappointment if it failed but it would not weaken the resistance as much. A reasonable pullback could still assault overhead resistance. I'd hate to see a test of the old low from this point but it remains a possibility.

11/27 Tue 1.5%

Interesting: SHPGY is a real loser but at an interesting point. It appears to have come to a W-bottom on what is possibly exhaustion volume. If it opens up it could be a short term trade but I wouldn't trust it for long. It is one to revisit in a few weeks to see if it is going to consolidate or crash further. It has been halved from it 2-year high. It has a 100 P/E that doesn't make me think it deserves much consideration--beyond a trade--unless it hides a secret.

XLY us the cyc/trans spyder. It got huge volume and closed at its high--which is its short term resistance formed on an 8-day consolidation from its gap up. It is interesting here and one of the spyders priced in a buyable price range. But the risk:reward just doesn't make me want to own this one.

The A:D line produced great breadth. The new high:low ratio was strong. We have a market that won't quit. Many of my own stocks exhibit the same characteristics with stocks breaking through resistance from overbought stochastics. This leads me to think this could actually be a bull market under way.

Funny that CEGE had great volume yesterday on a Needham upgrade and today announces another Phase III trial. Gotta think that news leaked.

It is only a Phase I trial announcement by MLNM/ABT but the drug addresses obesity and could be huge in time. Something to keep an eye on.

11/26 Mon 1.4%

Not sure just what the week will be. So many reports about now being the time to buy. The contrarian side of me want me to do my ostrich act. Instead of a steady up I'm expecting some volitility as we struggle here. And that'd be bullish for me as the Comp has a chance to digest and play trading range for a while would give it the base it needs to continue its upward move.

11/23 Fri 0.9%

11/22 Thur Thanksgiving

11/21 Wed 0.5%

B: ABC 58.40 UHS 43.44 AET 30.71$=42%

Bought the open. With the futures all over the place and the addition to the Midcap and the upgrade, it seemed less a worry than normal. AET bought about 2:45 on a solid daily chart and nice volume.

Yesterday was as bearish a one as the day before was bullish. Futures are better this morning and we have a short day of trading.

HGSI was a sick puppy and then had big volume after hours that got back most of the loss. It had been the worst looking of the day's pullback. It is probably just after hours weirdness though.

Thinking about some health care buying here. It seems to be the rotate to by the semi sellers.

11/20 Tue 1%

The longer term moving averages are just above the Composite here and could bring the party to an end. Best case scenario is to take it out this week--which is historically one of the better weeks to succeed at it. Others discuss 2000. I'm thinking 2100 might be it. We'd then be in a position to consolidate using the 200 day support. That'd make me think we are out of the bear market woods with the 50 day crossing the 200 day before year's end.

I think we get rotation here that can keep the market afloat. Goodness knows the semis need a rest here after leading this phase of the market to the present level. Healthcare might have that strength. Oil is a long shot helper. Banks are still acting decent. The regional banks are showing up on a lot of my scans. Oil doesn't look quite ready to participate. I'm going to keep my eye out for CVX at 80--which marks a trendline. But 72.50 is long term support with short support at 78.50 and a possible stop under that..

11/19 Mon 1.7%

S: AMAT 38.34 PEP 49.47 $=56%

Stopped out with a penny loss on AMAT and with a .19 gain on PEP.

Futures strong. Looking for a rally here. Good breadth on Friday. Better than the indexes would have you believe. Quite a few stocks made good moves on Friday. Don't mean it was a great day just another one of those foolers...

11/16 Fri 0.3%

Well, seems to be the same old same old as we await the numbers. Futures up as we wait. This is the market that can't make up its mind. It is tired but just won't give up. Some of this is expirations but I have little idea what Monday will bring. I do expect volatility today.

Well, CPI is in and shows the effect of energy prices...duhh. Seems a non-event. With bond prices screaming recovery any other signs could get lost in the crowd. We are too bullish here but there just may be grounds to not play the contrarian side too strongly.

Still own the AMAT. Probably should have sold it at that double top but it could do a couple of bucks extra.

11/15 Thu 0.1%

B: AMAT 38.35 $=46%

Interesting: What I like here about CEGE is the support. It has a ton of support between about 6.82 and 7+. The 50/200 are intertwined as the higher support. Money stream has diverged dramatically. The Stochastic is neutral which has been a rally point for the stock several times. Tuesday it failed on a breakout. Yesterday, it did the pullback from that failure. It has about 6 weeks of consolidation. It is a buy at support and and add to on a breakout, IMO.

Well, I bought a bit of AMAT as a premarket trade. It had a bad report but it isn't as bad as -2.40. I figure there's a buck or two here for the day. Wouldn't be a bad hold in an easier market. If I see fund buying big blocks here I just might keep it. I had that profit in OPNW that I quickly took and it is almost a double here. Don't see that for AMAT but the worst looks behind the sector and it will be among the first to see the light. So, instead of taking a profit here, I'll throw a stop on the buy price and see what happens.

Yesterday, I said I might play the morning pop; didn't; should have. HGSI hi to lo was over 3.

Breadth yesterday was constructive as were the new hi/lo numbers. With indexes breaking out it looks good but when you review the volume you get more pessimistic.

Take PEP; it broke to a new high from consolidation; great! but the volume was 80%. But, late volume was a bit stronger and was loaded with REAL block trades. That the problem with this market it gives something to everyone. The bars around Wall St. must be a riot these days.

Another look at my HGSI. Frankly, at mid-day it looked deadly. It then rallied like a champ. Watching stocks in this market invites ulcers. And, after hours it added .89 on good after hours volume to get almost even. I know only one thing here; everything I sold of late has been the wrong move.

Looking at the Composite: What's not to like? Well, being overbought. But, that is a trendline and one the is ascending for a change. A bull can see that running like that right to the end of the year. Yet even a trending market corrects. I'd sure think about putting more money to work if we could pull back to around 1700.

11/14 Wed 0%

The market had good volume and showed strength in breadth and hi/lo results. But, we are right at the ragged edge here with an overbought market at or near resistances. That makes me think we correct soon. Volume for many biotechs is drying up. Today was really a weak day in that respect for the majority. I think it is time to reduce or close out some positions soon. One thing is sure: you need brass ones to even consider adding here. The month so far has been inconsistent at best.

Futures are again strong--second day. It looks like we get another good day. These have been good selling points for a long time with a reentry coming along later in the day. I've avoided doing those trades and they could have made some very nice money. Maybe I'll give it a try today with the thought that I want to reduce anyway.

My disappointing stock was CEGE which was huge out of the gate and then sold off the rest of the day to close down. A number were back in that mediocre volume category that adds to the worry here. We could have a couple more good days but we've come quite a ways and need a bit of correction but we could just as easily thrash or see some climax buying. The stochastic keep indicating its time to rest.

11/13 Tue 1.3%

Interesting: WSM reports today. It has 8 green bars in a row. But, only one of those bars has good volume. Really looks ripe to pullback here. Resistance is in the area of 35 and 39. RSI and Stoc are peaking. If this pops to the first resistance or so on the news, it'd seem to be poised for a short--even if it has strong volume.

It was a happier afternoon than they've been for a while. Not that many sectors were gainers but many losers looked strong on their daily chart with volume coming as they recovered. Even some of the stocks with below average volume saw better buying than selling volume. So, I see the day as being more constructive than it might have appeared. The Naz was the stronger index. Safety stocks got an early pop and then sold off while the techs sold heavy and then came back strong.

One really has to wonder what yesterday could have been without the AA crash. Lot of my stocks show heavy tails which gives the impression the pullback has bottomed. Many of the red bars for yesterday should be pale pink.

Nazdaq futures strong early.

11/12 Mon 0.4% Airplane Crash in NY

Futures are weak but not extreme. The pullback hasn't gotten nasty yet and money stream remains slightly positive on most issues. We are in purgatory. And, if it can consolidate here, I could see us approaching 2500 for year's end. That's very optimistic and the high side by a bunch. The Afghan news is solid and could give us a reason to think that the market should at least hold here. Today may give a clue as to where this market want to move. It has wanted to move lower for some time but hasn't done so with any conviction. We need to consolidate and we seem to be trying to do that. If something really nasty doesn't happen, we stand a fair chance for that to occur.

11/10-11 Weekend

Friday was a yawner with low volume. That let them move them down in the last hour on almost non-existent volume. There was late buying in some of my stocks (biotech area) showing volume but even that was taken down at the close. The selloff in biotech was at higher than normal volume though.. Although most of the day was recovery on these stocks after the early damage.

MLNM was the stock responsible for a big portion of my loss for Friday. It is now sitting on a couple of support levels and any down move takes it below that support. A number of other bio charts looks similar and could put in trend line breaks. So I have some questions here. A breakdown would seem to indicate that "the test" is at hand for the sector. Yet, they are still on trend and it could be the normal pullback one would expect from this nice move. Everything, up until now, that I sold was wrong. That makes me want to hang on but that's a dangerous thought here.

The Dow seems to be willing to continue a consolidation--the retest looks less likely. The Naz is stretched and could pull back to 1400 here and still be trending. The S&P is a combination of both. It is a weak trend that also looks like a consolidation. Its breakout of three days ago is trying to hold but looks ripe to retest--but I don't see that one retesting the October low either.

11/9 Fri 0.4%

Well, we all know yesterday sucked. But! the A:D for the day was superior to the previous day. So the market did retain some strength that isn't reflected in the averages or in my portfolio. Next week brings us back to option expirations. And, I have no idea yet what any of this means. It did look like a bear market day though. And that hasn't appeared of late.

11/8 Thu 1.4%

Wed had the punies. Again, the 3-letter group strongly outdid the Nazdaq--even if the averages say otherwise. Better breadth and better hi/lo results.

There is a lot of talk about v-bottoms and I've talked about that in my diary before and most of this is restatement.

The chart is everything I can bring up on the Composite. You can yell about v-bottoms like the one 10/9/98 that started the super bull. You can also make a case that this is a successful test of that low. In spreading a chart to this long period it is hard to scream support or resistance. I can see 2--maybe 3--points of resistance between the low and a new all time high on this 7-day chart. Now that's ridiculous. If you look at a daily chart you can find a lot of resistance levels. But, are there as many as we think? I really don't know. I don't think anyone else does either. One can say the tanking after 9/11 was an anomaly on the chart and prove it by the rapid recovery to the old level. Or he can say it was a successful test of the 1/98 lows. Or...or...or

How much does one believe or want to believe whatever. The Bollanger bands on this chart (30, 1.5) are a 210 day average. The 00-01 timeframe is the first real decline on the chart. That 210 SMA never faltered for almost 10 years. Now it has faltered and everything we knew is out the door. Is/was this the end of the pullback? Maybe. You can make that case. And you can as easily make the other case. If you like Fibonacci, you are in no-man's-land. There is no clear picture here but there is always one in hindsight. And which ever way it goes we'll all figure out it was the right thing to happen. I think this may really be a double bottom already. But, I am not going to back it by going fully invested. I look at the top of the Bollanger and realize it is a possibility but I also think that if that's the case there is still plenty of opportunity to get fully invested again. And I know that if this were a 2-month chart, I'd be thinking about jumping back in on this bounce off of support.

11/7 Wed 0.3%

Well, ol' Greenie managed to move the market higher for a change. Other than the interim reductions, I can't recall a response like we got yesterday. In the next day or so we'll all get a note from our broker placing our money account below 2%. That means it is at the level of passbook savings. No wonder the bigger players don't see much reason for cash here.

I should have bought yesterday on the announcement but I was lethargic about adding. I'm looking for something good to buy and not finding it. I'll let this shake out a bit--even though the close was very strong and I think we have a couple more days of strength ahead of us. And if that happens the Nazdaq will be in breakout mode. Lots of cross currents here...

Lets take HGSI as an example of stocks in general. Doing a great breakout. Did it on nice volume. What's not to like? Well, it is approaching the 200 day which is sitting right on a resistance point. And the stochastic has trended at the oversold point since mid-October. Hard to believe it takes out 49.30 on its first try. But, it is a possibility. Next resistance is about 10% over that and that get to be really big. If you compare it to 99, you can see the stochastic isn't a problem on a trending stock. But, there wasn't any overhead resistance on that run. Can it happen again? Sure, but don't ask about odds!

Now look at a weekly of the same stock. The stochastic isn't anywhere near overbought. And the RSI is bullish too. The weekly says all-systems-go. So, which do you believe and how much of that is emotion? For me all this translates to still being as invested as I want to be at this point.

There were some great buying points but I watched them pass in the face of all the horrid news. Now isn't the point to buy or add, IMO. There are two classes of stock around. Those trading above and below their MA's. I'd be happy to try to buy some of the strong ones that pulled back to their 50 day or thereabout. IMNX and GILD are such stocks. But, how much more Biotech should I own? NMTC is a similar stock and in a different sector. But, how much can semis move up here. They've had a good run and need to consolidate for 6 weeks or so to be strong again.

11/6 Tue 1.2% $=53%

Well, yesterday was a good one on the tube. Breadth on the NYSE was very good. Volume was again so-so. Naz breadth wasn't really great.

Looks like we open to the upside again. But, with the Fed doing its thing today I'm not expecting much. All the talk is about 25 or 50 and 25 should, at least temporarily, have a negative effect. 50 might set off a continuation rally with volume. But, the real "secret" at the Fed seems to be their insertion of liquidity on a massive scale. There has to be a response to that kind of liquidity.

But, I just might trade a bit on the day. If anything really ramps, I might trade a portion of some stock with the thought that the Fed response would allow a profitable repurchase. I'm not the trader type so I may not. But, it seems the logical trade.

11/5 Mon 0.9%

Futures are positive which seems little solace here. I'd rather see an early sell off. The market is really holding up pretty well--all things considered. I don't think we get the major correction but a modest one wouldn't hurt. The market is churning here between buying levels and doesn't look like a major up move is possible. The best thing ahead seems to be struggle.

11/3-4 Weekend

The Naz seems to be rolling over and in trouble. Breadth, volume and hi/lo were poor Friday. It could be a normal pullback but it seems less likely. We are too optimistic here.

11/2 Fri 0.7%

NYSE breadth was much stronger than the Nazdaq. Kind of a shock to me but that's what make the market these days. I think we can rally into the Fed meeting. Expectations are for a 50 point move.

I've been a Greenspan basher for some time. My reasoning is the Adjusted Monetary Supply that is reported on the St. Louis Fed site. I am going to reproduce it here:

You can see that it fluctuated above the 0 line for several years. The liquidity put in for things like Russia and LTC increased it temporarily but there were no spikes. Then Al believed the Y2K BS and he put in enormous liquidity. At that point the AMB spiked to reflect an annual increase in Money supply in excess of 50%. That's "the bubble" that we all know all about. What most don't recognize is that Big Al was its godfather. And, like god: What Al givith Al taketh away. And we know all about that too. The "end of the bubble".

11/01 Thu 1.1%

Net connection down all day.