Archives: 10/2001 09/2001 08/2001 07/2001 06/2001 05/2001 04/2001 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoin. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

10/31 Wed 0.6%

Many of the 3-letter stocks look weaker here than many of the 4-letter variety. 1315 support still holds. If we rally here, which seems quite possible, then 350 point to the upside is a distinct possibility. Lots of negatives though with bullish sentiment figures making one nervous. Stochastic for many are in no-mans-land--and could easily move in either direction.

Yesterday would have been a -1% without the OPNW trade. The last half hour brought on big recoveries for a number of stocks and brought me back over .7% and about 2.5% for the day. Another of those cup half-full/empty situations that seem to prevail. My best case scenario would be a weak morning and a good afternoon. That give us the classic 3-day pullback. The other scenario is working back to oversold and that'd be a serious pullback at this point and lead us to the double bottom everyone seems to be pulling for. So, if things have the punies all day I might raise a bit more cash but I'm pretty close to where I want to be.

10/30 Tue 0.5%

B: OPWV 6.53 S: OPWV 7.63 MLNM 24.42 $=55%

Bought the OPWV in the premarket where it was being crushed on its report. Just a trade here. A half-weight trade based on shares--not dollars. Wish I'd bought more but I'll take it...Little later and I left 30 cents on the table right here. Thought the 7.66 level would be resistance that wouldn't get taken out on the first try. I was wrong.

Sold half of a small position in MLNM. They are doing some weird things and I would rather own a different stock here. Sale made late in the day on continuing weakness.

Nasty day yesterday. Close to Naz support here. May reduce position into the close or if it takes out support.

10/27 Mon 2%

Well, I went through things this morning looking at weekly charts. The stochastic certainly looks better on those than on a daily and gives me some hope we can rally here. Looks like an early pullback could continue the late one on Friday. That isn't bullish but it could become that if we can do like last Friday sans the last hour--recover nicely from the early pullback. It wouldn't be unseemly for things to rest here. However, the NDX and DOW took out obvious resistance. So did the BTK. A lot of stock did the same thing. That's just too bullish to ignore. So, it is the old wall of worry. I do know that I'm profitable on a one and two month basis and that in a deadly, general atmosphere of fear and indecision.

Everybody talks about the v-bottoms and if one goes back and looks at October 10,1998 they will see Composite v-bottoms. Smith on RM see v-bottoms when there are pullbacks in a congestion. I'm not saying it is wrong to point out the V's there are plenty around. But it isn't written in stone. Neither is resistance becomes new support and thats been happening too.

10/26 Fri 0.5%

WOW! WoW! Did I mention?...WOWWWWWW! Up until 10:15 it was a glum tape--and I really did consider buying a bit later and wimped out. I'd decided to hold on until 2 or 3 P.M. and hope--which was all it was. And, the ol' tape came through like day's of yore. I wonder how many people looked at today's pin action and thought back a few years to another October? I know it crossed my mind. Today was a bull market standard. At the end of the day the only regret was every stock I've sold of late. Everything was doing well.

So, what about today? I wouldn't complain if it pulled back a bit...as long as it isn't my stocks. Ok, the breakouts could have used better volume and it wouldn't hurt if they setup again for a push. There are chart after chart showing breakouts. Some on great volume--but I didn't own any of those. Some look like they did test the September low and are coming off their base. There are too many good charts here. If this one disappoints us, it will be a major disappointment here.

Futures are off going into the open. JDSU was a negative report. Had thought to pick up some NMTC which I thought may have finished a pullback from the breakout. Might do something late or on Monday if things look good. THOR is another interesting chart for today--tiny company though but a positive looking consolidation it is trying to break out from. (THOR removed from consideration 8M secondary pending.)

10/25 Thu 1.3%

Yesterday was a beautiful day for my portfolio. BFRE made an honest breakout from congestion but could have used more volume. So did CEGE but on good volume. Others were strong and the portfolio was ticking a new high for the day within a minute of the close. Other biotech holdings were working their way toward resistance and the BTK is also approaching resistance at 550. So, do you believe the breakout or look to sell things approaching resistance. I'm thinking the key will be to reduce and be wrong either way but not as wrong as holding or selling everything.

I do think we are getting close to the correction everybody wants. But, I also think we could continue the rally for a bit and get to resistance levels in the indexes before it happens. With both moves being substantial in nature, it isn't a time to jump either direction with both feet. So my thought is to raise another 10-15% cash and take a lower beating or reward--regardless.

Old/big tech really lead the market yesterday. The sectors were mixed with about half gainers. Volume on the Naz continues to rise. But, I only had a few stocks that exceeded average volume. Fortunately, the two showing breakouts were in that group.

10/24 Wed 1.9%

Well, another "Anthrax Day" confused issues. Yesterday wasn't horrid it just wasn't good either. So, I reduced exposure on the thought that the Anthrax scare isn't going away soon. If it should then the market ramps and I look foolish. You can be foolish though when you are gaming the unknown. And gaming the unknown seems the only play in this market.

Oil slumped to a 2-year low. That has to be bullish. I wonder when the market will start seeing the glass as half full. Earnings reports are as broadly dire as they seemed last month. There has to be a bit of optimism around the corner. We are coming up on what should be the October rally of old. We could do a quick revisit of the lows first. We either need a long consolidation which seems counter productive or a retest. Either would help get us off this oversold to neutral market.

Looking at so many stock where we are right at levels we were at before 9-11. Yes, they tanked in the terror but on a broader sense they have churned. Oversold and overbought don't mean a whole lot under those conditions. If you did it "right" you may have made quite a bit of money. It is a stock picking market that can get set back on any war/terror news. It is also a market that could ramp on good news. Unfortunately, I don't see any instant gratification of that type for the near future.

10/23 Tue 0.3%

S: QQQ 34.302 $=52%

Road the Q's down until 2:30. Broke support a bit earlier but was on longer term support. The idea was to raise cash and I am back to 52% which leaves me as invested as I want to be at this level.

Yesterday's report of two probable deaths due to Anthrax would have destroyed the market last week. Instead there was mild selling followed by a good recovery. That shows a lot more strength than we have a right to expect from this market. But we are overbought and you have to respect the wish of many to retest. Most stochastic are peaking. The best scenario is consolidating to rebuild strength. It is hard to accept that given the world concerns. That said I think we could have a couple of good days left in this move.

What's missing? Volume. New hi/lo improvement.

10/22 Mon 2%

B: CEBC 6.98

Just a partial fill at this point. And it went out as a partial fill. It did get me up to an actual 1/2 position though.

Futures a down a bit and that is good. These exuberant openings are a gut wrencher. We've thrash more than gone down and that's good. We've had more closes above the open of late (8 of 10) and that is promising. But, we continue to mark time and react to the battle with Anthrax and overseas than we are concerned with earnings--which will be a mixed bag at best. If we can make it through the next couple of weeks without a serious decline we could be in better shape than we can imagine here.

10/20-21 Weekend

Well we rebounded for the most part on Friday. The volume was very weak. It was Friday and there was uncertainty ahead so the low volume wasn't unexpected. We're in uncertain times and given that the action still seems constructive for a further upward move. That is not to say it will happen right away. Everyone is talking about testing the low; it seems ingrained in many minds. The second best thing here is to consolidate all week and keeping us confused. That would set us up for the best thing which is still a move upward and not a retest. That isn't to say the retest wouldn't come later. But, we are on the road out of October and there is promise that we can't see a strong rally from a base where we ignore the news driven bottom that everyone points to for a retest. The market isn't always right; the market is always searching. And the V-bottom could be the exhaustion climax which was what we were thinking about earlier. It would be an unusual one and that makes it a lot less likely but it would be something everyone would "understand" in hindsight.

10/19 Fri 0.9%

Well, I held the full QQQ position into today. The N100 (and all others) could be ready to move upward. With everyone yelling about V-bottoms and the need for a test, the minx might have some different ideas. All the indexes could be in a normal pullback and all have reasonable support levels nearby. If you are a pessimist you see a rounded top. But, I see them over weeks not days. Anything can "round" on a normal consolidation/pullback. We've had a lot of bad news that doesn't apply to a single stock that affected every stock. But, the affects seem to have done little to affect the market itself. More companies seem to be saying good things this earnings period than last.

So, if I can make through expiration without getting scared out of a position, I'll hold things over the weekend if the N100 shows any strength anywhere.

All the Anthrax news has whipsawed the market. What would happen if we caught the sucker? Where would the market run to? It'd be an overreaction bigger than 9-17. There are other big positives in the wings. OBL could get taken out. Big military wins could start. Any of those will be huge happening here and in the market. In truth we've absorbed bad news pretty well of late.

10/18 Thu 0.1%

Figured on an afternoon rally yesterday and it didn't happen. Still think the rally isn't over and so I added to the buy at the close to average down. Will probably hold the buy until 2 or so to see if I'm right. Do intend to be out of the trade early Friday at the latest. It is a good size position now.

I am again almost dead on the value of the portfolio that was there on 9-11.

10/17 Wed 3.1

B: QQQ 34.60 33.90

Intel and IBM reported after hours and the news drove futures up substantially and brought along other techs in after hours trading. Looks like a nice day is ahead which is likely to move the Naz toward substantial resistance. Obviously not really interested in adding to stocks that have run here.

10/16 Tue 0.6%

10/15 Mon 0.4%

The stochastic on just about every stock I own is peaked. I should reduce today but have the thought things could run into expirations because the puts are down substantially and traders will be looking to profit from the call side more than past option mix. If this weren't the case I'd be reducing pretty heavily here. Still should pull in a bit of profit and might lightened today and do it on weaker holdings.

10/13-14 Weekend $=54%

Bit disgusted. Not sure if it is with myself but I'm leaning that way. GILD traded down to my stop which was within 25-cents of the low. Should have bought it back in hindsight. Darn thing ran back up and looked good. Now I'm on the sideline and don't own any of the stock. And, I think it might be the strongest one in the sector. Oh well, I guess it is time to hope I can buy it at those levels a few weeks out

Friday day was a weak day--not unexpected. But, it wasn't a breakdown. Lots of inside days on the charts which show a continuation is possible from slightly lower levels. So, do I sell or hold. Well, I tend to hold and will see what happens. I can't say I am terribly optimistic on the longer term. But, I do still see short term potential.

10/12 Fri 1%

S: GILD 60.50 $=53%

Stopped out; should have kept the old stop. Will stay on the sidelines here and look again later. Still like the company.

Got a bit nervous later in the day as things were pretty mixed. The GILD sucked. Happily, it was a good close for just about everything. I satisfied my nerves by dumping the underweight portion in CYGN which has a floundering consolidation going and may want to make a pullback before moving.

I would be surprised if today and Monday were weak. Lot of stocks have moved so well that it wouldn't be out of place. A strong close today would be a great setup for next week's expirations though.

Had a stop at 61.50 on GILD and switched it to 60.50. 61.50 was broken; but it is recovering off its low. Also moved it from a GTC to a day order. Will review if it is still intact tonight.

10/11 Thu 1.5%

B: GILD 64.00 S: CYGN 5.60 $=40%

Got tired of watching CYGN. Closed it out for a mini profit. Watch it run...

With my usual short term brilliance, I bought just moments before the stock dropped 1.50. It is now a full position and on the road (hopefully) to recovery. The stock is trading above it breakout point. It is currently up on the day and that will hopefully last for a while before it has to retest its breakout. The position add is a short term trade. The base buy is one I'd like to keep active for an intermediate term play--which could produce a 50% gain if all goes well.

One month since the bombing and my portfolio is almost the same value. Quite a ride.

Yesterday, looked like a bull market day of old. Breadth was good. Many stocks marched up for the day. With the markets being lightly overbought, it bodes well. Rallying under overbought conditions is a bull market happening; just like continuing to decline when oversold reinforces bear market conditions.

GILD broke to a new closing high. Thinking about adding to it today. The measured move could lead it to a 50% increase.

10/10 Wed 3.4%

B: CEBC 7.01 PEP 49.28 $=45%

PEP reported good earnings/growth. With that behind it and us going into earnings season, it seemed like a low risk position for the interim.

Arne on Real Money is a value picker with a good record and this is one of his stocks. Very thinly traded stock. And the spread is horrendous; it is really a stock nobody would trade short term. Value has been beat down recently and I thought this a good entry chartwise. Sitting on very solid support and doesn't look like it has much downside. Good cashflow but the best analyst rates it a hold. So the position isn't an aggressive one. It's a smallish bank without the credit card or overseas exposure that could affect it negatively.

I thought about buying the GILD Monday late and didn't. Same for mid-day. Either would have got me in a lot nicer but you can't cry over spilt milk. Lot of nice Biotech action and I was able to outperform the index for a change.

Yesterday was weak. Is it a normal overbought pullback that wants to revisit the low? That could be the signal to put more to work. Or it could be a simple pullback that lets us rally while overbought. We're too V-ish here to think we are going to consolidate our way into the promise land.

10/9 Tue 1.3%

B: GILD 59.00 $=55%

Bought the close as it held up on the consolidation well. Underweight as it may be closing in on overbought.

I think today might see the third leg in the recovery kick in today. This would be a short term recovery play or a chance to reduce into Friday. It could make for an exciting move though. I'm not sold on the idea but might get back into another weak position or two. Cash will still stay at the 50% level if I do. Unless I decide on some REITS here which have great yields and look on the low side of their cycle.

10/8 Mon 1%

B: HGSI 31.48 $=62%

Adding back the HGSI on the prospect of a good presentation at the UBS conference. Also a nice daily chart with raise and consolidation. Looking at ONXX for same reason. (Failed to hold and off a buck from the buy approaching the close.)

After last Wed strength, we've had the punies. Not a surprise after the strong move. The open is looking week looks to confirm a 3-day pullback. In a bull market that's an entry point. Here it is just something to watch. If something does get overdone, I might reenter a position or two. Otherwise, I'll enjoy the limited exposure here and watch rather than participate.

While everybody is mumbling that the market is being affected by the air strikes, I consider it is a non-event. We all knew it would happen and we haven't stubbed our toe in the process. This is more wait-and-see than event. I think our moving ground forces in will be a short term negative.

10/6-7 Weekend

While I seriously reduced Friday, I still have some strong positions in the Biotechs. There wasn't a lot of distribution on Friday and my early selling was very defensive. I'm actually optimistic for next week. But, I have been that before and suffered. So, I have decide on a more conservative tack. I may reenter a few positions if things seems ready to resume a bit. It will be a short term look at favorites though.

I continue to believe I will be able to buy most of these items at a lower price though.

10/5 Fri 0.6%

S: HGSI 32.05 ONXX 4.36 4.09 AMD 8.55 $=65%

Sold half the HGSI for a small profit in the pre-market. The stochastic was still in good shape but yesterday was poor in gapping up and then closing lower. Sold the ONXX I bought the other day; still a good position active. Sold the AMD I bought the other day for a small profit. The idea is to raise some cash here and hope there are some better chance to unload more. Closed the other half of the ONXX out at break even point to raise more cash

Lot of things looking toppy here. Time for a bit of concern and a bit more cash. I can live with less profits if I'm wrong.

10/4 Thu 1%

S: GILD 58 23/64 58.49 $=49%

Interesting: IMNX broke off a very strong base that goes back to at least May. One could enter on any weakness. I'm think it is ready for a small pullback but if the market stays strong it could do 30% before that happens. Pretty good gap between the current price and resistance.

Sold all GILD in the last 10 minutes. Bulk at lower price. Will look to scale back into full position later.

Great day. Some late weakness but those were bull market daily charts. In the broad market everything was outstanding. Bear markets give strong rebounds though. Lots of overhead resistance above us on a lot of stocks. Great volume on the Nazdaq which did build a base. While it exceeded the normal parameters that would define a successful test of the March lows it did awfully well in relation to the news we've all lived through. One has to at least admit that it was set up for a sucessfull test going into 9-11.

Huge gap up volumes aren't the cure here. I'd like to see a struggle to advance. But, there are a lot of shorts out there that are getting nauseous and that may not be possible sometime this week. or the start of next.

Yesterday's gain was great. Especially with GILD not trading. That and cash represent 48% of my portfolio. In the pre-market GILD is up 4+ (7%) on very strong volume. It is trading like the market was already open. It goes into the N100 at tomorrow's open. By then I intend to be underweight or out. With the thought of reentry to a normal position on the inevitable pullback.

CSCO was yesterday's king of the hill and responsible for a lot of the overall exuberance. It said it was comfortable with estimates and previously had become optimistic about the future; so the remark was a strong indicator that we might start seeing the light at the end of the forest.

10/3 Wed 3.8%

Well it is almost 10 AM and I'm up nicely and that's with GILD not trading again today and it goes into the N100 on Friday morning. Should make for an interesting time. The FDA report on their HIV drug was very positive. I am double weight on the stock and plan to be around half weight after tomorrow evening. Like the stock long term and would reposition to a full one after the N100 silliness is over.

Yesterday was an ok day where I was able to almost match the BTK gain. Today the SOX is showing a bit of recovery as are the banks. Things are looking promising for the short term. The oversold is shrinking but not quite done in.

10/2 Tue 1.6%

B: ONXX 3.64

Interesting: IMNX is breaking out of a very nice consolidation on fair volume with a leading money stream.

Added to the ONXX which had a nice consolidation at this level--immediately dropped a dime on selling but is coming back

GILD not trading on news. Looks like it may not trade until after tomorrow's meeting.

If there is anything working it seems to be failed rallies here. Maybe it is the waiting for the Fed's shoe to drop. We'll know soon enough.

CYGN continued to sour late. Not a horrid looking chart and my sell was more conjecture than fact. And, if it was a short seller, there was a pretty good buyer on the other side. But the buyer ran out of gas before the seller and late support was non-existent. So I'm thinking I'm bright and then there's a block trade at the close at a premium to the ask. I still have half the position but it was a half position to start. I'll be disappointed with any outcome it would seem.

10/1 Mon 0.5%

S: CYGN 5.46

Halved the CYGN. Major sellers. Someone on ISLD was working 1500 pieces every time he was filled at the bid. Could be a short seller. Other big pieces with little showing up on the bid side. Figured discretion the better part of valor.

VIX and VXN still high but coming down fairly quickly. The bull/bear ratio is dramatically bearish. Both are contrary indicators and indicate we should rally here. But the market is so news driven you can't really count on anything. If we should have "a win" the market could really run up. The breadth Friday was great. It was even better than the indices.A lot of stocks are still building bases. My thought is this is a trading rally but it is starting to give a bit more promise.

The duel over the direction for the market is pretty intense here. Gurus are very opinionated. That is making me want to reduce exposure into any ramp up. My thought is that a strong up move will still give me good participation. And a lot of cash will keep me alive if it goes the other way.

Lots to happen this week with the NAPM numbers today; FOMC tomorrow; and it is the kickoff of earnings season. On the earnings front, a lot of the negativity of late has been met with a yawn. Anything remotely resembling a good report should be met with enthusiasm.