Archives: 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

10/31 Tuesday Trick or Treat Gain: 2.5%

S: TRLY 23 5/16 B: TRLY23 15/16 VRTX 90.652 Cash: 54%, 46%, 36%

Today I trailed the BTK which was up over 4%. The new high for the portfolio lit up in the close after last hour weakening.

VRTX did the crash at close scenario and I entered and it went down $2 more before recovring into the close where I'd made about +3%. Looks like it will work for a quick trade in the morning or a possible play if the day looks strong.

The new position in TRLY is about 1/4 the size of the sell. Would add an equal amount later if it should pullback toward the end of the day. The stock can now be sold via the web! See below:

TD Waterhouse sucks! Trying to sell that stock was a nightmare! I will transfer more cash out of that account via wire transfer to a real brokerage.

I owned a bunch of LCOS. I'm still an optimist on the new company. This morning (day after merger) I expected to see TRLY shares in the account. Not so! Called TDW. First person told me it would be 7-10 days before I could trade the stock. You realize what can happen in 7-10 days in this market. The next one said I'd have to go short--which you can't do in an IRA. So, I was panicked; did the right thing and asked for a supervisor. Never got him but they transferred me to a real broker in extended hours trading (??) who put in a sell order at 24 for me. But, I couldn't revise the order so I was stuck making phone calls. Called back and bid was 23 5/8. She canceled my order for me but had to "make sure" it was canceled. On hold another 5 minutes or so. Yes, it was canceled but now it is trading at 23 1/4. Put the sell in and got 23 5/16. That was about 500 lost in 5 minutes. But I was out of the stock. Later saw it trade at 24. Mad but glad I don't have to continue to wander through the bowels of TDW to make a trade. I then requested an account transfer form!

My TRLY (formerly TRRA/LCOS) was up big yesterday and saved the day. I don't see how it can repeat today. There will be a lot of the stock in the hands of arbitragers that are now done with the play. I wouldn't be surprised if they were shorting all day to cover tomorrow though; so I won't say a big pullback is a certainty. But, we should see some kind of a pullback. The trading today just got it up to the TRR.MC price overseas. There was certainly the appearance of volume buying into the close. There is a need to add quite a few shares to the new weighting that TRLY has in the SOXX. Also, many funds cannot hold ADRs and have probably already gotten out. We shall see...

The TRLY is 23% of the portfolio. It made 18% gain. That's over 4% to the portfolio profits. Yet I was up well less than half of that. Not a bragging day; but, better than my overweight biotech positioning should have garnered.

I am worried about the Naz. The more we come near the lows and test the weaker the support will be. It is time for it to ___ or get off the pot. The alternative here is for it to consolidate which isn't a bad scenario; it is just that the current volatility makes me think it would have a hard go at doing a consolidation.

10/30 Mon

The DOW is right at a resistance caused by the congestion of late September that bounces between 10600-800. It looks like pretty strong resistance and just how well the DOW handles it should be an indicator of whether we are ready for a fall rally. The S&P looks iffy with a pennant formation completing. It needs to show recovery today or it won't look promising. The Russell also has a tight pennant that need to resolve itself to the upside to give us some promise. Comp is looking similar and the N100 actually looks a bit weaker. I can't say I'm overly optimistic here. It isn't all bad but it isn't that promising either.

I'm not looking to add to anything today but may try another HGSI style play late if the tape doesn't look bad. Looking for a down opening and hoping we rally off that--which has been a frequent way the market has run of late. Most of my stocks are sitting at the top of their stochastic and are likely to pullback a bit or consolidate. If they can run from here then that'd seem a strong indicator for continuing through at least one layer of resistance.

Dave Nadig at Metamarkets did a nice analysis of HGSI that details why I bought the HGSI and why I held it. Take a look!

10/29-29 Weekend

That was a nice gain for Friday if you consider Biotechs being down for the day. HGSI was responsible for the gain with others generally treading water with loses predominating. MLNM was up also. But the two combined only protected me from half the downside the others provided. Part of the "success" was when I seriously reduced on those that had run up. If I had done a bit more of that and sold the IMGN, I'd have had a nicer Friday. Still-in-all, the week turn a modest profit. I held the HGSI short term trade through the day. Looked iffy at times but went out strong.

Another bad tape day for the most part. Sector rotation and an inability to sustain anything important. Those that did well were lucky or darn good.

I do think the Biotechs will rally (broken record alert) on Monday. I base that on the good movements by HGSI and MLNM which are often the biotech tell. The broader market holding and rallying from the 3000 area seems like another broken record and another run at 3500. I think we need to see Comp 3690 (50 day MA) broken to call this a real recovery.

10/27 Fri Gain: 1% Cash: 30%

Well, I got up early and looked at charts. What a mixed bag; not only sector but individual stocks. There is nothing leading this market higher. The closest sector to something you can invest in for more than a few days is Biotech and the stocks that are that are as selective as can be also.

My method of investing for the intermediate term is not working. I'm not getting killed so much as whipsawed. The stocks that I see trending are oddities that I wouldn't normally look for or find.

I think semis are dead for a year or even more. Where they don't just go down they will flounder in a trading range that takes the heart out of both longs and shorts. Capital expenditure reductions in the telecoms will keep pressure on the broadband crowd for months. That isn't showing up right now because of all those orders placed when supplies had to be fought for. But, I can see a promising earning season for them the next time around.

Many banks will be under pressure from their junk bond type exposure. There was a lot of liquidity thrown at them near the first of the year when many net stocks looked ok and could get financing. A lot of these companies look headed for bankruptcy or pressured restructuring. If there is a bank you can invest in it is probably a regional that is outside the technology belts.

Biotechs want to lead but they seem to be in bad hands. That makes them more a trading vehicle that and kills anyone trading longer than a few days. They do seem to have some accumulation by the institutional but that could cause some more rotation as they position for paper losses to help avoid capital gains for their clients. With many underperforming, I think they will really press to avoid much in the way of capital gains. That mean they could dump "good" stocks that they own at higher prices. So, the best play looks to be working the trading ranges until proven otherwise. And that could be a while.

10/26 Thu Are we setting ourselves up for another Friday rally, or...

B:HGSI 81 7/8 Gain: 1.1%

Bios rallied into the close while HGSI tanked. Looking to sell the morning pop on this one. This would be a overweight position if I held it all. I had a small position that I held into the decline that was just underwater on average. MLNM was actually making it's day's high into the close; it'd gotten fast track approval much earlier in the day and laguished on the new that a while back would have caused it to jump 10 bucks.

Pick out your favorite index and look at the long term charts. We 'think' that the market starts up in October and runs for the rest of the year. THAT DOESN'T ALWAYS HAPPEN. Time to be very careful here.

For today, any guess is as good as mine. Biotechs were hurt but not overly hammered. Yet I suspect they could pull back (BTK) to the 702 level. The BBH could see 170 or a test of the gap that started this mini-rally. Should it take out the gap the next support is 157.50. The former would be far more bullish about the next move.

I'd like to have gotten a bit more cash early in the day but that won't happen now. The fiber arena was seriously wounded and could get much worse. More margin calls look to be on the horizon. If I owned any here, I'd get out as the analyst rush in with their soothing words.

Yesterday was deadly. Even with selling off early. I was down 3.8% without including the adjustment from my early selling at profits early inr the day. That offsets the loss by something over half! Would hate to see things without that. My MLNM was the one limit order that didn't get filled. Sure wish that'd been changed to a market order at some time in the day.

VRTX (that I sold lower) went out very well on it's earning report strength. IMGN (still own with a smaller position) went out even and GENE actually was higher. But the rest got pretty well hammered. With such heavy selling we could get a dead cat style bounce today; we could even start another 'real' rally. If that happens I'll use it to reduce further. If this doesn't hold here the next stop could be around 2700.

Almost half my loss was in LCOS; was tempted to buy more for the short term into the Friday merger vote but sucessfully resisted. BFRE was the other big loser. I should have locked in the 8% profit on that one! Especially since my first object was to buy it lower. Looks like I'll get my chance.

I backed off buying some of the opticals. JDSU reports tomorrow and they will find something bad in that if they report they can turn lead into gold.

10/25 Wed

S: HGSI 94 98 CEGE 28 1/2 IMGN 40 VRTX 94 1/2 93 1/2

I am now totally out of VRTX. Probably should have held it--at least into the afternoon's hoped for rally Great run; want to own it again. But cash seemed king. Cash now 41%. I can live with that but would like to pull down a bit more cash--may toward the close. Am getting toasted today but it looks worse than it is by quite a bit due to my profit taking. Most of the daily charts resemble yesterday's poor showing. At least I don't on anything broadband today. I said further down that I might buy some today...don't think so now.

OK, I pulled the semi-panic and right now it looks ok. I have two big losers but the overall portfolio is down from the earlier highs. So, I am comfortable with what I've done. I still own a bunch here and would like to reduce a bit more. I am seeing this as a pullback like the kind I've held through before. The idea here isn't to run from the market; it is to have some cash on hand instead of losses if/when the pullback comes off. I saw charts yesterday like I saw for weeks and let sink. This time I'll try to play a bit more from the other side. I'm not abandoning my favorites I just trying to position better this time around--sort of a 50-50 play on old habits. Approaching mid-day and every sale except CEGE is trading under my sell.

Reduced HGSI by 3/4. 94 was hit at open and 98 later which I'm very grateful to see hit. Still see the strength here as an opportunity to reduce. The other reductions are about 50% and cash is about 35%. I'll look for bargins in broad band later in the day. That seems most damaged. Maybe some NT and JDSU.

BFRE announced huge growth and beat earnings by 50%. It now seems to be a earnings play. I'll do that with half the position. VRTX also seems to have strongly beat earnings and should show strength which will let me reduce. The Amazon numbers look to benefit the broad tech arena.

No getting around it; yesterday was nasty and makes me think the trading range remains intact. I went out down about 2%. That became over 3% after hours. But, the daily charts looked broken almost across my list. This is looking like the short term top is ready. Time to reduce here. Won't sell all but will reduce. BFRE, IMGN and VRTX report earnings and I hope they are strong. I will use them to reduce. It seems prudent to take some profits here and be ready to reenter lower. Lots of toppy look in the biotechs. Its possible to ignore one doji or harami but not when there are this many. Couple them to the look of the daily charts in general and I have to think defense. I'm guessing the pullback won't be lasting but it could be substantial on those that have run up. The overweight positions definately need to go.

Question is do I throw some of the selling into one of those ramping paper stocks? If so, it'd just be a try at a scalp. I've never done all that well with such stocks. Be they have been the ones to run ahead of "the real" rally.

I'd like to see 50% cash and wouldn't complain if it was 60 here. I want to keep in my core biotechs with lighter positions. I won't be unhappy owning the leader stock through a decline if the positions are lighter one that I can add to if they do get nicely lower. But that takes cash and so the need to raise it here while keeping enough of my postions to still be there in case this is just a two day pullback.

I hate these whipsaw markets that whipsaw my brain...

10/24 Tue

S: HHGP 4 13/16 BFRE 4 5/8 4 9/15

Going into last 15 minutes I'm down about 1.5%. IMGN is reporting tonight and one of those holding up which makes me think good news. But some of those daily charts today look very much like bear market charts. So, I'm getting a bent toward profit taking.

Closed out the HHGP which was languishing. Bought BFRE which is trying a breakout. The BFRE is now a 2.5x on share basis and half weight in dollars. Average cost is now 4 19/64. Shortly after: the trade cost profits as they reversed--which means very little at this point. And, the HHGP move is on very weak volume; while BFRE is doing much better volume.

Not a bad Monday! NAZ was marginally down on much reduced volume and a mini-rally into the close. That makes me think we don't do a major pullback here. Looks like we might even see two good weeks in a row. Today is critical though. Although, it could be another day. We need to see moving over the 3500 level on volume to confirm that this is the real deal.

I managed to beat everything but the BTK yesterday--which was huge at 5.6%.

Have to keep telling myself things aren't as bad as the talking heads tell us. Ok, we had a pullback and it is too early to know if it was the pullback. But, we are coming out of earning season fairly intact. The market overreacted to missing forecasts. Many of those down a penny or two earnings were still up double digit over previous year. That isn't the sign of a recession. Yeah, the vote is out still on 4th quarter but it always is this time of year. The wealth effect is supposed to be contracting. Yet the broadest index (Wilshire5K) is up 22%. That isn't contracting wealth for many folks. I embarrassed to think about just how much I'm up from a year ago--it is a 6 figure number and a triple digit percentage.

The BFRE buy was based on a 10 day chart of accumulation/distribution. It has a very bullish divergence in the downturn and the accumulation over the period is 5.78 Million. The chance of this congestion being resolved to the upside seems quite probable.

10/23 Mon over 5%

S: HHGP 4 5/8 B: BFRE 4 1/8

2:15 and I bought the BFRE which doesn't want to retrace. The 2PM bus left the station and things are looking very promising. Up 5.6% at the moment.

It is 1PM and I'm up close to 5%. GENE bottomed just above where I thought early in the day and is rebounding. HGSI looks headed for new highs after the secondary dip. MLNM and VRTX lead the rest. Great day for Biotechs.

Lightened up the HHGP to a full position based on share count. Was very underweight in dollars. The position can be profitable with the current number of shares.

I think the key here is the volume. If we continue the rise on reduced volume, I feel we must revist the lows one more time. If volume can hold while we get stable increases, this may be the breakout we're looking for.

10/21-22 Weekender My profit for the week was about 7.25% Grade: D+

Well, we had a week of it. My trading left a lot to be desired. But, it looks like things could come out for the best. It seems just about every day found at least one stock with a nasty pullback. My best day by far was Monday. The gorgeous Thursday up had me doing ok but trailing all the averages. Friday I managed to beat the averages. I might be a bit to hard on myself based on a single day--Thursday. If that one day were different, I might have thought a C+ was deserved--I did manage to be up every day this week. I went fully invested on Monday and that was the right move--only a bit premature on the LCOS I bought which coupled to a secondary by HGSI that will make it pause at the worst time.

Is this "THE" bottom? Kind of yes; no; maybe on that one. I don't see a serious decline any more. I think the panic stroke we had took care of that in what ended up being a pretty painless (in retrospect) happening. This move is pretty strong and I don't see that able to sustain itself; so we could revisit lower levels on a very temporary basis. Once that has happened my guess is we don't explode but do some of the sector rotation and range bound trading that we've seen but with a definate upward bias. I think some consolidating here has to happen to heal some of the massive damage and that is either a pullback to a nice W-bottom (the wave people would call it an A-B-C recovery move) or a consolidating move where the beaten down can go flat and work off more weak hands. The alternative says that isn't necessary in a "new economy" world and we get a true and immediate 1999 style rally. I give that less a chance than the former but wouldn't be surprised by it.

One possible action is a bit of what I did on Friday. Do some bottom fishing on stocks that look like they are the better piece of the puzzle. The mini buy on BFREE was that kind of a play. RNWK is another of the kind of stocks I'd say were good bottom plays. It is a leader in the field and has to benefit at some point in any serious recovery. Another buck and change and GENE is a Biotech sitting on some strong support. In the Biotechs, GENE is a chart sitting on very strong support at a nasty bottom; but, it could decline another dollar or two to find the bottom of the support range at 12.06.

I think I'd rather own a things like IMGN for the moment. If the pullback that is possible/probable happens it would be a time to position. Why buy the up/down here when you can try to trade with the momentum plays that are working. I told a friend I'd make a serious BFRE buy if it fell back and made a W bottom. I've got a bit here but it is a bookmarker more than a position.

Trades for any scenario would include natural gas and HMOs. Both look very strong here. But the place to be this week was old and beaten-down tech. I was biotech and mine even trailed the broad market.

10/20 Fri Options Expiration

B: BFRE 4

A loose change buy of a stock that made me a lot of money at a lot higher price. The rumor is the ad slowdown is overstated and this is a stock that can benefit, if true. Would like it for real if it pulled back to a double bottom. Was put on a focus list so that might not happen. So, I have a tiny position to keep it in mind.

IMGN has taken out it's old high on volume and has become my new favorite stock. They must be planning a secondary...

I visit the Metamarkets site and participate in the morning chat that begins around 9 AM. Today, I commented on my HGSI 'plight' and was 'talked down' (This was not advise! He can't do that.) by Dave Nadig. It was his 'comment' that made me hold all the stock into all that bad news--a very wise opinion as it is turning out. If you want to talk to professionals as a friend, visit the site and take a look at their fund too. It is a great place! If you do visit the chat, say hi to 'kenp'...that's me...

The old high for HGSI was 93.75. That was taken out twice in the last two day with a peak at 106. The stock is now trading at 94 1/2. That's above that old high resistance. I am not claiming we move to the old high without a struggle but the stock does seem intact here after all that bad news and that is quite optimistic in my book.

I didn't sell the HGSI. Looked like a fool's play after more thought. Right now it is looking like the right call at 9 2 1/4. About +5 from the open.

One of the scans I use is the crossover happening with two very short term moving averages. This can point out stocks that are reversing up or starting to move. It is a real mixed bag of stocks. The wild thing today is the number of old economy stocks that acted like internets of bygone times. e.g. IP KNT WCOM G With the horrid breadth yesterday, they are a shock. OK, G got a new CEO; but, 16%? Not only must he be able to walk on water; he must be able to teach it.

Anybody know what today will bring. I can't even guess at today. I'd have to go with up until proven otherwise. If I had money to buy with today, I'd be thinking about doing it late in the day where the weakend and out crowd dump their inventory. That'll be hard to game with options expiration happening. I'd look for things down for no good reason.

I am gaming my HGSI buy as it was really getting wacked. Due to options expiration? The post 4 P.M. cleanup was block trade on block trade and a few seemed buys--although the price really meant nothing at that point. I plan to hold here. Ouch, Downgrade, Failed breakout, secondary offering. Looks like the real deal!!!!! Time to sell? Right now (8AM) the bid/ask is 89 and the last is 90. Throwing 25% out on the open. Might raise to 50%

LCOS looks like it is doing what I projected it to do the other day.

10/19 Thu 1987 Crash Anniversary

S: BBH 176 1/8 B: HGSI 98 HHGP4 1/4

That HGSI weighed like a stone on things. Even without it I would have come out below the great day that others enjoyed. After hours the block buying (including 1 100K one) showed on the tape. I am hoping that was a run at the weak holders and not the portend of worse to come. I ended up about 3% for the day though.

With HHGP below it's NAV it look like a good play. Went lower by 1/8 though.

Traded out of the BBH on the SEPR tank and figured that I was better off in a stock I thought would outperform and that is HGSI. I would have handled the trade a bit better if the TD Waterhouse webbroker had been working. As it was I had to use the phone and did market orders to be able to confirm the action. This HGSI position is overweight at 2x after the buy. I use Waterhouse for what I consider core holdings; normally that isn't a problem when they show their clay feet in a busy market.

Nice overnight action in LCOS. Don't know if it will hold. The spread reduced to about $5 as we get closer to the merger. TRRA put in a spike reversal low yesterday; but, what stock didn't?

HGSI is really confirming here in spades. 140 is a conceivable goal. The BBH isn't quite confirming things as well. The volume there gets an iffy ok. VTRX looks like it could hit 120 if it quits struggling; it had the volume to do a bit better.

Things looked good going into the last hour but didn't hold that well. I still ended up 500 for the day and that makes for an 11K swing. It sure was the hard way to find a small profit.

I've been a LCOS bull and remain so; it went out a loser but TRRA managed to close even with yesterday after being down a bunch. It is still the top rated BOP rating in my portfolio. And LCOS put in a nice double bottom.

The DOW isn't as bad off as it might look. Take away IBM and JPM and it would have ended up for the day.

I don't like the semis for anything more than a marginal trading bounce. I love the biotechs more than I ever have! This looks like the real deal this time. How many times have I said that to myself?

10/18 Wed

It is 10:45 and things are in rally mode with the biotechs. A lot are still down but well off their earlier lows. HGSI, MLNM and BBH ramping and that's my tells. I am feeling much better here. But, all is not out of the woods. Even poor old YHOO is up and so is INTC. That looks better. But the DOW is trashed and the S&P isn't doing a whole lot better. The Naz looks marginally better and could actually show a profit one of these days. This sure isn't a market for the weak of heart! I was down 10g's almost at the git-go and am down less than a thou now.

Well, the Naz100 for all it's problems fired one of my buy signals today. After all the weak leaders that comes as a shock. If INTC results are met with acceptance and MSFT does the same tonight, we may be out of the woods for a bit. Looked at the TRRA chart to consider with my LCOS fiasco. It ramped the BOP indicator and is ranked in the 98th percentile. Believe it or not I still am sold on the play--although I sure wish that buy of yesterday was today instead.

One of my indicators fired yesterday on the BBH. The secondary buy signal will fire if it is up today. I feel this could go to 200 and the mid to upper teens. The BTK has already fired both of those short term trade indicators.

The oil driller sale is looking better to have done. They both fell through their 50 day yesterday and it is now looking like they will pull back further on the general oil weakening. Sad because they will probably have improved earnings and advise higher.

We are in headfake season with the option expirations pending. Want to stay lose until that plays out. I may reduce biotech exposure if it is going out too strong on Friday. Maybe 1/3rds...

ONXX is a stock to watch. If it starts to rally here it could be a double and the nastiest of downside risk is about 2 bucks. And, should it actually double it'd be at the point of taking out the old high and making a further run. There's a good stop at 14.75 and I'd wait until is shows it can move. Great Stochastics for a nice bounce. It's been a hot stock with a lot of good press.

10/17 Tue

B: LCOS 43 IMGN 31 1/8 S: PKD 6 1/2 GW 5 1/8

Well, it ended up being one bad buy--LCOS. That turned a ok profit into not much of a profit. But, the biotechs saved the day. The BBH even managed to go out at the high of the day. That bodes well for tomorrow. Regarding the carnage. This could still be a two day pullback from the Great Friday and could resume. Hard to do that with so many former leaders in the crapper but it is looking like they are not going to be this falls leader and we'll have to find others. There was a late buy program that supported the market and should carry over into the morning futures. The Naz need to move above 3240 level and the QQQ needs to hold 96.

Wow! what a bum set of buys. Wow! what a bum tape. Wow! does it look like I'm wrong. Part of this could be options expiration coming up. That did the longs no good in the last one! Looks like it could be a revisit the lows time. I did say the key was probably out around Wed and the Nazdaq isn't quite on the destruction list. "Old Tech" seems to be responsible for much of the holocaust. HGSI as continue up all day and is often a tell on biotechs--so all is not yet lost. But the banks are rolling over and the SOX already had. So the view of a broad rally seems out. If we make money long it will be in selected sectors. There is no broad rally in the forseeable future.

Bought LCOS at the open with the thought I was probably overpaying but would be whole soon after. Sold the oil stocks as they flounder here. Looking to add to IMGN--even though it is doing a secondary. Has some conference coming up and a good story on it's candidate. Was rallying about 11:30 so made the buy. Now fully invested.

Looking at the biotech stocks here and things really look ready. Lot of cup & handles and for the better stocks those are near their 52wk high. I've been of the opinion that the rest of the year will be a trading range. I don't see how the coiled power of these consolidations can mean these stocks don't find new all time highs. We know they can and will experience fallbacks too but the risk reward here is great if you can live with the risk. Sounds like conflicting statements in that sentence but it is not. There's always risk and we've seen the volatile downside risk that could kick in again; but the gains seem poised to do the same thing they did in Jan-Mar. I'd rather we see a more sustainable upside path but it might not happen that way.

I say that and then say I will put the rest of my money to work in what is already an overweight position. And, I will probably buy close to the open. This is all based on yesterdays action in TRRA. The stock was up $1 (5%) to 20 1/16 on 565% volume. They announced yesterday that the merger should close by the end of the month. The conversion will be 2.15 shares. If it doesn't even go up, LCOS is worth 50.45 and that 20% in two weeks if a stock that shows a very strong spike reversal doesn't go up a cent. A 50% recovery--which seems very doable-- would move the stock to 32 5/8 and that $70+ to LCOS. It is certainly possible that LCOS doubles from yesterday's close. IF we rally here, this buy looks like as close to a sure thing as there is. The high side potential seems the mid-80 and that'd be a double in two weeks. The negative here is that TRRA sits close to it's all-time low. There's no way to truly evaluate the downside risk. The mental stop would have to be Friday's low for TRRA and a bit more. ($19) Given the volatility that's a real possibility. I see the likely risk reward as 3:10. That's a great number for the high side.

This buy will move my LCOS position to above 20% of the portfolio. And every indicator I looked at is screaming way oversold. When one is really strong on a stock, having a 25% position is a viable trade. One should reduce if it reaches 1/3. This is still a conservative approach with the proper money management. But, the time to sell or seriously reduce will be just after the day they announce the date it will close.

I have 11 open positions. That's right at the maximum number that I want. I'd be more comfortable with a couple less but could live with one more. A fellow in the Metamarket chats said he had 100 open positions recently. I don't think any individual can do that. I like 8 to 12 open positions and favor the lower side of that range. That works well if you honor your money management and that is something I have been very bad at of late.

10/16 Mon

B: HHGP 4 13/16

Last hour had most of my stocks weakening. But, I'm up 5.4%.

Trading right at NAV. Looks like a safe entry if we can continue this rally. Lots of upside available on this one, I think. Not a lot of volume on this one though. Still have 10% cash which I'm not in a hurry to invest.

A half hour in and things are looking strong. Maybe a bit too strong but it does look like there is a real rally underway.

Well, lets hope the second half of the month isn't as deadly as the first half was. The oil market is being a lot more friendly today. That's a plus. If BAC's report today is good it should be a big help to the market. Normally, Financials need to participate in advances to think they could sustain themselves. We've got a lot of earnings coming up and good reports will allow a rally to work better than what we've seen. I am hoping for good but not exagerated volume without a big volitility increase.

After hour activity for my stocks was very positive and added over 1% to the day's profits to 4.5%. I will probably put the remaining 14% cash to work today.

10/14-15 Weekender

It is after hours and I'm making new highs. Friday made back 2/3rds of Thursday's gassing. I sure didn't expect today's action but it was most welcome. 3 of my 10 stocks are sitting on their days high as I write.

The market is very news driven here. We've seen that in the bull/bear traps springing on many stocks.

The LCOS spread is about $8. That means that if TRRA can hold there's a very nice little profit on the deal here which closes this month. The IF is the gasser here but the TRRA selloff is overdone and should see some analyst support.

Lot of talk about Friday being a dead cat bounce. I don't think it was but we won't really know until Wednesday or so. Something really nasty could postpone the rally--that a fact. But, barring some kind of melt-down I really don't expect. The panic on Thursday over the middle east etc. was pandemic. And the buying on Friday was very strong right into the close. Only invest if you have a strong feeling here. The confirmation is two to three days in the future if you are risk adverse. Looking at my stocks I see very substantial volume going into the close which I have to see as very bullish.

The lower volume issue will get a lot of play but it isn't as negative here as one might think. If this market can now move gently on this lower volume it is contrary to bear market rally, if the volume arrives a few days from now. Fred (derfnamdoog) on Metamarkets makes this point and I believe the data.

PBSC is a provider of lab supplies to the Biotech industry. It is at support after the runup/tank of many stocks in the category. It is on good support with a good money stream divergence and stochastics on the bottom across the board. It could be a buy if there is an up market and biotech support next week. I see it with doubling potential.

It is my bent to stay invested and ride things farther than many would. That was deadly in this decline. Yet, I feel that right now the potential for a trading gain is substantial and worth going to 100% invested. I am still profitable for the year to date.

And don't worry about Friday the 13th. This grand bull market began on Friday, August 13, 1982 with an eleven-point advance by the Dow to 788. On Monday it was up four points and the next day 38 points. - D. Worden

10/13 Friday GENE reports today

B: IMGN 28 3/16

To explain myself after buying when I said I wouldn't...that was a "petty cash" buy. I didn't have enough cash left in that account (I have Datek and Waterhouse) The buy fitted available funds for the addition and it was on a mini pullback. Avg Cost now 29 7/8.

If I do any buying today it would be at or near the close as the "out-for-the-weekend" crowd do their selling. I suspect that I won't add anything until Monday shows us if this was another one-day recovery.

I can remember the "oil crisis" associated with Desert Storm. It was one of the all-time buying opportunities!

Just before noon: looks like some panicy buying is showing up. If that can hold up, we may have that strangest of all beasts: A Good Friday the 13th.

Looking/hoping for a falloff in volume here to help signal the impending rally. It should be the tell that says the water has fewer sharks and it is safe to swim.

So what will Friday the 13th portend? If it weren't a Friday, I be more positive on a start for the rally today off of the panic selling of yesterday. As it sit though we probably flounder. I still say we get a major trading rally but that's probably Monday now.

I put half my cash, errantly, in play today. I will not consider adding to positions before Monday unless a very different day from what I have in mind transpires.

10/12 Thu

B: GW 5 7/16 IMGN 30 7/16 HGSI 79 7/8 PKD 6 13/16 VRTX 74 1/2(underweight positions)

The "weak holders" are being shaken not stirred here. If I'm right and there's nothing to confirm that, the market recovery benefits from today's action. In the meantime, color me stupid. It is 1:10 and I am coming back here but in a very damaged and embarrassed state.

The Oil stocks are doing ok...duhh..but that's about it. Should have stuck with my plan to buy later in the day and I probably wouldn't have. But, will wait to see what happens. GENE reports tomorrow which could lead to a spike reversal--getting desperate when you try to game tomorrow like that. But, it has been crushed so bad that any decent news should give it some fuel...well tinder anyway...

With all the nasty middle-east news, you'd think it'd have a much worse effect on the market. It appears to be holding up pretty well--sans DOW--under all that.

Stocks under review for a buy today: GW PKD GRL IMGN ATRX VRTX GELX I won't be looking to buy early unless the trend is very obvious. This could easily stretch into tomorrow. I won't be buying all. And, none will be a full vest.

Well, I put it in now. The positions seemed right at the time. I'm down to 20% cash. Let's see what the afternoon brings. Nasty risk but really nice reward...

Drop GELX from the list; it is being acquired by Genzyme. And drop GRL on stochastic problems.

The VIX and McCellan are now screaming rally. Late strengthening Wednesday seems to confirm. I believe that tomorrow at the latest we will see the start of a rally or the bottom formed. This is a strong position for a rally of 4 to 6 weeks duration that will carry us through the election. I think a lot of this will be in the bigger cap stocks. That's not to say there won't be good plays in the mid and small

I miscalled the recovery that I looked for this last week. I thought the strong stocks would be biotech and related drugs. I still think they are leaders and could be for the rest of the year. They have the best money flow of any sector. Search for strong money flow in them; lots of quiet accumulation seems present. An example of a stock not to buy is one I own...GENE. Although, I still have hope there. It pulled back too much. I think the BTK can hit the mid 880's.

I don't think the SOX will participate strongly and be one to avoid. I think that technology is in the same boat.

Crude will head higher and make you some money in the oil support stocks--there are some leaders that haven't participated well and others with decent consolidations that could be nice winners.

10/11 Wed

S: BGEN 47 11/16 ABSC 45 21/32 QQQ 76 5/16 (Cash: 41%)

The VIX is over 30 and the put buyers are ramping up. Looks like a bottom approaches.

Sold the QQQ and ABSC at the worst time of the day but worried about going worse instead of better. Got better... Figured it was time to sacrifice to the trading gods.

Sold BGEN at the open. Traded up a bit. Thank goodness it was a small position. Open was overdone. Biotech trying to rally. We'll see; I still have hopes.

Darn market can break your heart. On Tuesday I was up 3% early and ended up down .25%. That continues the bear market trend. I wonder if any of that fund money that is supposed to be on the sidelines will start showing up. I fear it may be a month away. The Naz is at a very critical point here. Using the QQQ as the proxy, it is on it's 2x 21 week envelope which is near the tight Bollanger band that is now expanding. This could get ominous and send the QQQ toward its 200 day when you translate the above to the daily chart and 21 day info that is in a definite downtrend--duhh. The 21-day channel is at 70 and we could hit that. Somehow I can't see the QQQ moving back above it's 200 day--which is at 95--in any recovery. Things are just too gloomy as the oversold condition holds so solidly.

I have lowered my trading report card to a D- here. I've had a lot of all this right but didn't follow my own views and stayed overexposed to the long side.

The BGEN buy looks like it will get kicked out this morning. Got some analyst downgrades. Still looks good for the long haul to me. But, now is not the time to position core holdings.

It is stocks like HGSI that are keeping me from all cash. The chart shows about 6-weeks of consolidation here with a shallow cup & handle. But if you move back you it becomes a 3 month handle on a deeper cup. This stock looks really poised for a dramatic breakout. How can you NOT be in such a stock? Well, there's a simple answer: wait for the real breakout and quit riding the consolidation. But, that doesn't seem to be my style. Time to review style.

10/10 Tue

B: ABSC 46 1/8 S: 46 3/4 B: BGEN 53 1/2 (Cash 25.6%)

Bought a small BGEN position after hours. Liked the info in the conference call stock is on a double bottom here and looks like it has limited downside. I might add to it in the real market tomorrow as it shows where it will trade. This is a 1/4 weight position. I don't usually trade in the after market but really thought a lot of the pipeline they detailed on the call.

Tried to find a bottom for a trade on this one. The Bios are showing their 3rd reversal and I'm hoping third time's the charm. Might as well use the Oija board instead of charts these days. Sold at 2:45 to avoid overnight exposure on quick trade. Ended at 45 3/8--good move for a change.

Today is Yahoo! day and that should color things. I have hopes for my biotech plays but only to reduce positions. I finally had my buy of the day go out higher. That puts a checkmark in the good column. Been a while since I collected one of those.

Tried to time the market here and it hasn't worked. The problem now is bailing to avoid more losses just before a nice rally. Bullish sentiment is way down. I smell a rally but I've smelled that sucker better than a bird dog working up wind. Bird dogs occasionally point skunks. But I have hopes old Buck is going to explode a covey here.

Bush is supposed to have gone up 8 points on Gore and that should help the drug stocks.

Might pick up some PALM here that has pulled back to it 50 day and Bollinger Band. It is acting like a momentum stock since the bottom and looks like it could make a good run.

10/9 Mon

B:CEGE 25 31/64 (Cash: 27 1/2%)

In for a penny; in for a pound. Should have bought the HGSI early but it was too iffy. CEGE is a favorite and an average down. Now 3/4 weight.

Well, I don't think I'll buy any HGSI but I am looking at an underweight position in HHGP. It is an interesting company, a mini-venture fund that is a lot more conservative than those that are probably responsible for some of the tanking because of the category. It is getting pretty close to it's NAV. The stock is volatile! It could drop another buck without much difficulty. But, a look at the chart says it could move up a bunch. So, if the market is weak and carries it down, I'll do a partial vest as a long term play. The buy would be less than the decline I experienced on Friday. They have one of their ventures poised to IPO and that should give them some added strength. Although this market makes it look like that won't happen soon.

HGSI got a bit over hyped as a small cap stock by being mention on the old The Street TV show on Fox. I made some good money on it then. Got the reports. Decent management directed to the financing of University discoveries. It also has a declared .02 dividend to those of record on tomorrow. Not a reason to buy but a mini-bonus. This is in the broken category and trading below all it's moving averages.

There are a lot of broken stocks and a lot that are anything but. I am following the 50 and 200 day moving averages here to try to identify the strong stocks that could see a bounce off them in a few weeks and still be doing unbroken long term trends. HGSI is one of the nicer in that regard with even the 13 day trending higher over the period and having touched its 50 day on Friday and rebounded. I just may buy them both today. I am really worried about just how dumb that could be though.

10/7-8 Weekender

Well, Friday was down just over 4%. Nasty! 2/3rds was due to LCOS. TRRA tanked too so there is a lot of weakness there as a merger play. I am looking for a down Monday. And I am seriously thinking about buying some HGSI if it is. That is subject to change without notice.

The old saw about buy and then selling on Yom Kipur seems seriously damaged. It is one of those old saws that's been done away with for all but the most orthodox, anyway.

We have had two rally indicators fail in 6 trading days. That's not the best reason to be long here. But, it does give more reasons to sell into any rally.

10/6 Fri

This much panic is going to cause sever overhead resistance. I fear I'm had! I am still up for the year--little solice here. A bad Friday is often followed by a bad Monday! I think that will probably happen.

Quiz: What do BGEN and GENZ have in common?

Answer: They are the only two stocks in the BBH that are up for the day. (11:15AM)

P.S. GENE is my only green stock. If I had more guts, I'd be a buyer here.

Looked at the charts and can actually see some positives. That's a stretch but things like the BBH are sitting on a nice double bottom here that is a great spot to rally and the stochastics point to that being oversold across the board. I guess there is a possibility for some buy programs late--although, that isn't something to even think about counting on. Things do seem to be stabilizing at these levels. I don't know how much of this is wistful thinking. I do know that Helene (The Street) has been calling for a blow-off to form the bottom here. This sure looks like it. So, am keeping the faith for the moment and looking for more cash in the account A.S.A.P. which may not be soon enough.

Thank goodness I quashed that buy. That'd have been deadly. I have no idea what happened about 10:30 but it was a falling knife. And you don't try to catch those. I was away for a bit when it all happened. Things were looking pretty good when I left. When I looked in later it was deadly. The support taken out here may not be recoverable on this move. This recovery rally is looking like a nothing/none event. Can we tank from oversold...you bet! Another negative is the overhead. How many longs are saying what I am? Just make me a bit whole and I'll get out. That isn't what you look for ahead of a real run.

With yesterday's nothing tape you could be a bull or a bear. It's obvious I selected bull. Now to pray for some follow-through. Anybody remember what that looks like? I think we can do 200 to 250 on the Naz100. I think the BTK could take out the old high. I think I am overinvested. Make that know. But, there just has to be a pop with the oversold sitting where it is.

The long N100 position has about 3 days to prove itself. If we don't get an oversold rally the outcome could be quite dire. 2900? Lower? I think that will happen but not without a rally.

I chickened out and canceled the RYVYX buy. My thoughts on the reason for the buy follow:

I reversed my bias to cash based on all the charts I've been looking at. The Biotech is on a double bottom here with a great stochastic oversold. A lot of stocks are in similar shape. I am looking for a strong, several day move. I think it has to happen. The Biotech could move longer and further but the RYVYX is 2x weight so gives me a bit more diversity and a strong upside potential.

I decided to play the move without using leverage and the delay in trading by going to the QQQ instead. That is an option and I'm not adding to the position until Monday at the earliest.

If I still didn't own a decent 2000 profit, I would be mostly cash here. This is quite risky. I recognize that but I think the rewards here could be substantial on the annualized basis. This is short term exposure.

10/5 Thu

B: RYVYX ?? This order was canceled before it could execute

This fund is a 2x weighted long of the Nazdaq. I am 1.5 weight on this buy with a target of 32.50. Rather than play particular stocks to this rally I am playing this fund. This is helping me somewhat limit my overweighting toward Biotechs and playing the recovery on a broader base. The SOX must participate as it is a strong component. I think it will. Yes, I am going against my better judgment. But am playing this for a recovery rally only. 3700 and I'm ready to fold `em.

Utilities are at a double top which is typically a failure rally that leads such an action on the regular market by current to one and one half months.

Well I had a loser of a day--down 2/3rd of a percent. (The overnight brought me back to a small--$29--profit.)That was pretty much a recovery high to the situation at the down open. But, the Nazdaq made a spike recovery bottom that looked impressive. The last one of those was on the Friday that lead us into this mess. But, that oversold rally has to happen sooner or later. Question is will I be short-term whole enough to truly participate on the profitable side. Regardless, I still see this as a recovery rally that could be followed by worse than this. That could give us a real capitulation bottom to work off of toward a more sustainable recovery.

My thought is to do more vesting on partial positions down the road. Those vest would be larger than my full ones when I started. I'm not keeping things in the perspective I should.

In thinking about the negative action after the FOMC, it is obvious that the market here is still "priced for perfection" and the comparison to just making numbers for an individual stock and how the market reacted is a sign that we could see some major downside during the earnings period that'd be the reason for the serious pullback that I keep thinking is in the cards.

SELL THE RALLY MODE: ON and I'm pounding myself in the head to honor that view. I love being invested too much for my own good at times!

10/4 Wed

Well, it got ugly out there. Another headfake of a day with the FOMC results as expected--and that's had an effect like those just making earnings--punishment. On the good side there appeared to be a lot of capitulation late where people sold in disgust. We are sooooo oversold on the Nazdaq we have to rally at some point, don't we?

If things don't show signs of improvement today, I will raise some more cash. The QQQ is obvious for doing that.

I am still the optimist (a very damaged one) on the Biotechs. They are at very strong support here with the last Mon and previous Friday reversal and the July high. It has to hold here to avoid a trip to the Aug low (100+ points) or the Aug Consolidation (50 points) at best. MLNM and HGSI both had gains for the day and they are often tells that run ahead of the next move.

10/3 Tue

Well, the Fed is out of the way and the rally in the Nazdaq seems pretty weak. Am ahead but far from a bunch.

For the Nasdaq, the August low has failed on a closing basis. That isn't good! I'm still long and wondering why? Well, it is the oversold condition of the market that cries for a rally. But, this is going to be nothing more than an oversold rally. All I am asking here is a chance to get out a bit more whole. That a pretty sad comment.

10/2 Mon

S: ADBE 165 (Cash: 28%)

The Naz is at a critical level and really needs to get back (down 98) some of this loss to keep the believers. The key may be late buying programs that should do something here.

Getting close to my "I'm cash" level. A few more bucks and I go to protection of cash as the primary goal. I'm going to wait and see what the FOMC looks like tomorrow and hope for the rally. MEDI weighs on the bios and I can't see one downgrade keeping the whole sector down.

Any other market I'd be wanting to keep ADBE. I think it goes higher. I think most things will go higher for the day. But, cash looks better here. Made 2% and change. Wrong! sell was the right move.

Deadly October is here. Want out of all the short term plays this week where I can. I traded all last month and got a small drawdown. I guess that's not bad when I hear some other stories. But, I would have been better off in all cash. I need to keep telling myself that and, if I have to trade, do it with small positions. The BBH high last Monday has been followed by consolidation on increasing volume. Volume normally isn't as strong in a normal consolidation and bears watching.

My LCOS position is the truly large one and I'm going to let that ride. It is supposed to close the merger with TRRA this month and that should keep it above water.

I am very tempted to fade the opening today. Probably means I shouldn't...the way things are going...

The market is still very oversold and it should see a rally this week...that and it nickel...

9/30-10/1 Weekender

Well, it was an ugly month. I came out of it down about the amount of yesterdays losses. (2%) Friday was another lousy day with all my decisions wrong. The HGSI buy didn't do that great. Selling the GZTC was early. They did try to rally in the last 45 minutes but the last 15 took me down to the day's lows.

The Naz is looking very weak as is the BBH. I let too much cash out and am bothered by my inability to sustain cash. I normally have no cash and my mind set keeps making me drift back toward that. I have to show some better discipline!

This might have been a good week. I didn't own AAPL or PCLN or the longish list of others that experienced bloodletting on a massive scale. It appears that the fund managers were setting up their losers Friday and selling their trash to get the tax loss and taking their bad quarter. That may mean that we put in a temporary low on Friday. The market (Naz) looks particularly weak. But, going in the direction of the move has been wrong more than right. So, I'll hold (and pray) here. If I'm right we get a down open and then rally. Fading the open has worked almost every day for months.