Archives: 09/2001 08/2001 07/2001 06/2001 05/2001 04/2001 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint in 2001. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

9/29-30 Weekend

Well, it was a constructive week and ended on solid gains with associated volume. What wasn't to like?

Too bad I didn't get the sale off in the premarket. I figured right and the day yesterday was much affected by GILD. However, I think it can be strong going into the N100 add on the 5th.

My CYGN buy continues to trade around my price of 5.55. This stock has consolidated at this level for a week and should break soon--hopefully, up... 7.00 is the gap down and resistance.

Lot of stocks have come back to earlier levels. It should be an interesting start of the week/month on Monday. Word is there are still a lot of shorts that haven't covered.

9/28 Fri 0.5%

S: PFE 39.28 HGSI 30.77 $=26%

Got out of the PFE with a small profit and put half into HGSI buy. Net cash add. Bought the HGSI pullback on a stronger biotech setup. But, kept the play lower to add to cash.

Nice broad movement yesterday--outside the techs. GILD added to the N100 and is running up on volume in the pre-market. Trying to sell half in the silliness @ 28.65. I'll cancell it if it doesn't fill in the premarket and work it into the close on the 5th. Cancelled the stop but will reinstitute it down the road. It was at 52.38 which seems unlikely at this point. (Cancelled sell and trading above going into open.)

BFRE was very weak yesterday and kept me from a 1.5% gain.

9/27 Thu 0.8%

The selling yesterday is partially attributable to the Jewish Holiday. Many did not wish to carry stock into a period where they would not wish to trade. If that was the case, we could see a nice move today.

My GILD buy is looking strong as the move was made on good volume. While pulling back from earlier levels it remains above average. If (big if) it can break the congestion, it has the potential to hit 75 or so. Hard to think of that happening in the current turmoil though.

9/26 Wed 1%

B: GILD 53.02 AMD 8.40 $=22%

Interesting: RA is a REIT with rental properties in the Wall Street area. Got to guess they'll be able to rent the broom closet for the next year. It pays a 6.5% rate and could get to the 30's which might make a superior return over the timeframe. Trading at the high side of a trading channel consolidation. Heard about it on the radio and also a remark from my data supplier--Worden. That means you aren't getting in before any news. But it hasn't run up to make it a momentum play either. It is the pullback that makes it a decent entry as a short or long term play. Not a stock to look for a double with but it should beat a bond or having cash. Safety play with a good return. Trading with a P/E of 78% of its historic average.

Doubled up on GILD to a double weight position. New average cost is 51.90 and a GTC stop was entered at 52. Gives me a play on the good news from yesterday without risk. Hopefully, I can move it up at the end of the day to 52.38 which was where it traded yesterday and a return to that level would fill the gap from this morning.

Later day buy on the AMD as it staying about the 8.30 support level to make a double bottom. A risky play but I see what they've done as constructive. There were a LOT of sellers still working but the stock was holding rather well with very large quantities short stopping the bid/size at 8.35.

Decent volume and signs that the selling is dry. Still a trading move here, IMO, though.

9/25 Tue 1.8%

Looks like a tradable rally is still in place. Would like to see better market volume confirm this better. Doubt this is the bottom but it still looks very tradable.

Have to be out today. An old customer has a problem and needs some help. Darn. Maybe I can make it back before the close.

It appears the bad news from VRTX held the biotechs down today. Hopefully, today will show improvements. But the late selloff doesn't add a lot of promise. My positions weakened in the afternoon but showed some after hours strength that gained back .6% of the selloff. GILD had a good report in this morning which should help things.

9/24 Mon 1.2%

B: CYGN 5.55 ONXX 3.50 $=39%

Interesting: EASI a defense play but a great chart and breaking to new highs with a P/E that is consistent with Growth number. Good chart. 2 splits in last several years. Long term buy on pullback or a momentum play for those who still believe in them as it broke to a new high on great volume.

Bought the CYGN which is a stock I'd traded successfully before. The market seems to have a strong mid/low cap bias early. This dovetails with major sellers from here and overseas. They own the higher cap stuff and so it seems to stay under pressure. That's the reverse of what you'd expect in an early recovery but makes some sense here. ONXX was weak but I replaced the 7+ stuff I sold earlier anyway. Nothing like a half price sale.

What's to say? Futures are up and we look to bounce. Is it a strong one? Not to my view. But I think it is constructive and should give us an idea of how desperate the market is.

I really wanted to put some money to work on Friday. Cowardice or the respect of cash kept me out. Looks wrong in retrospect. In a market that is so news driven there is no right move. We invade and tank. We do well or poorly in the process and rally/tank. I need to start looking for very short term plays and that isn't my strength and I know that. Small plays may grind out a bit from such a process. On the intermediate play level, I still think I'll be able to get them cheaper. Lots to think about.

9/21 Fri

The futures are down huge on the President's address to congress. Great speech; great results. We need this kind of capitulation here. I am looking for an A:D at 1:10. I am looking for leaders to crater. We are going to take out 5-year lows on many stocks. I then expect a late and very buyable rally. But, the world is spooked and I'm not sure I'll put more money out into that move. If I do it will be some averaging down with very small adds. Or something like IMCL in the low 40's. But they would be small positions. No need to rush after the all illusive bottom. But today will be a good day, ultimately, for the bulls.

With triple witch there will be a lot of rich owners of puts. The bears are slobbering fat and hopefully ready for their winter snooze. Hopefully they will have unwound by the last hour.

9/20 Thu 1.4%

B: GILD 51.05 50.50

Should have bought earlier. Bought the leveling but left the pullback price active. Both were filled and it is a full position instead of the half position (actually wanted a 3/4) that I started with.

Good short covering rally into the close. I'd have preferred it wait a bit. I was think that a big down open today could lead to a shakeout that would make things tradable. It could still. At this point I don't see much recovery strength and am looking for a W-bottom for a trading signal. Of course we need to rally at some point to build a W-bottom.

The Biotechs look like they consolidated. I am looking to return some added exposure to that area. If they climb tomorrow I'll probably put about 15-20% back to work. They tend to lead ups and downs. I'm hoping I see up. Many had charts that came back steadily from about 10:30 on. I will be looking to enter GILD early and IMCL on any pullback. Both showed reversal days yesterday. HGSI is another reversal but more downtrodden. The other two have very limited overhead resistance.

There were some other charts that did very well late in the day--lot of techs. They were losers but halted the nasty late slides that have been present since the reopen. Some talk about buying movement halting with the bond market. This is supposed to indicate rotation from bonds to equities but that seems way simplistic.

9/19 Wed 0.7%

The rally is in the open/futures. There's is the VIX and put:call ratio that says we do. But the individual charts are harder to get enthused about. Nothing looks like a bottom that is "The Bottom". If a stock seems to look good it is on weak volume. It isn't that we can't form a bottom here; it is that there is nothing that yet confirms that happening.

The NYSE did more volume than the Nazdaq. Sort of seems like an ugly form of capitulation--as the institutions might have elect to liquidate positions rather than take advantage of the short term loans they are temporarily authorized. OTOH, the NYSE was in a staggering rally mode a lot of the time. It wasn't a wholesale selloff as much a repositioning. Time to follow sectors again is my guess. Although, things seem all over the place with many in positioned to be doing a dead cat bounce. This seems confirming in the number of hanging man candles I see.

I looked at Worden's Sector Averages--a great feature in their data feed that I should use more. They were all over the place. If there is a trend of any kind, I do not see it.

Biotech, my love, is on multi-year lows for a lot of stocks that could/should lead. I had hopes yesterday with two companies reporting good news. No carryover and only one of those could trade up and that modestly. Biotech has tended to be a leading indicator. And its inability to rally from these level is very disturbing.

9/18 Tue 2.2%

There are a few and only a few stocks that look promising. The early strength of RFMD has passed. Some of the large caps are trying to lead and that is a bit of promise. MRK and IBM...MSFT and NOK...INTC and AOL are showing promise. Still think we have another day of this before the VIX kicks in and gives us a weak rally.

The word is that yesterday was constructive; not necessarily bad. And it is true that we could rally from these levels at any time. Not many charts are on support but many are heavily oversold. Many have taken out critical support levels that have little further close support. Not a great sign. I looked at daily charts and except for the occasional safety/defense stock, they were as weak as any bear market day we've seen. Many have there support 10-20% or worse below their current level and those are ancient support levels that are, by definition, weaker and more watch than buy points.

The right move is just watching here with the powder kept dry. I now want a Reversal Day before I cut some money lose. Nobody has the answer here. But I know a reversal day is one of the more reliable patterns to trade from and it has tight stops as part of the technique. Remaining funds should only be committed when the risk:reward is fairly conservative.

All that said and I almost bought RFMD into yesterday's close as it rally off the serious opening gap down.

9/17 Mon 3.3%

Well, walk in and turn on the quote tracker and I was up 7% in the pre. Wondered just how munged the markets were. Reloaded and it looked a more reasonable 1%. I think the biotechs may catch a break here. They aren't pure safety but they won't get grounded and should be unaffected by recent events.

Still can get excited about the market though. Best wishes to all today is about all I can sum up. I'll get my act together, such as it is, to check things out late in the day with the thought to buy a few stocks. I'll look at stocks that held up well against their last low. Regardless, the thing not to do is listen to the entrails readers here. There's no way to game any of this. A 5% move today in either direction is likely and a lot of stocks will make that light volatility.

9/13 Thank you Terrorist!

It is easy to be cynical about the world in general or this or that in particular. The horrid actions of the terrorist is backfiring on terrorist in a big way. People are seeing the truth about them. Even the worst are seeing the good that is happening in New York. It isn't a world that can just ignore or avoid the terrorists. Even government that could only spit on us are scrambling to say, "Hi there buddy." Yeah, they'll weasel out but they are running scared.

I just watch the most moving moment I've seen in a series of moving moments. It was Chung's interview of the head of Cantor-Fitzgerald. Before it was over he was blubbering like a baby and so was I. Along the way, I heard that nobody made it out. And the last faint hope for my internet friend, Bill Meehan, seemed dashed.

In tears he dedicated his life and resources to the 700 families that suffered losses. Yeah, that Wall Street, money-grubbing, predatory trader showed the whole world what humanity is. On national TV, he showed it with an honesty that nobody can deny. I am not shocked but tell me it doesn't get a point across that NOBODY can deny.

9/12 Make no Mistake!

Anything done on emotion is usually wrong. I'm 50% cash and will definitely put some of it to work on weakness.

But that's not my real reference to the topic.

General Yamamoto said after the attack on Pearl, "I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant."

Brokaw wrote a book on our greatest generation. Good book but short sighted. Were they better than those at Valley Forge, or Gettysberg or Porkchop Hill or a Hot LZ or...

We are a nation of greatest generations. Many of our generations don't get the call. Mine didn't--we fought the cold war in our way but it too was another kind of war. I'm the "Duck and Cover" generation and in ways it was more scary than now.

The "problem" in America is one of commitment. We aren't as rash as many in the world picture us. But when we commit!!!

Look at the lines in the street at the blood banks. Look at the 95% marks in the polling. The U.S. has committed.

9/11 Attack on America -- Markets Closed

9/10 Mon

Interesting: MANH and TQNT both give those bottoming looks. TQNT adds a bullish engulfing candle to the mix. MANH is iffier.

Interday comment: The options are 1.3 which would be a contrarian indicator that calls for a rebound. Biotech is so-so though. I still think things are a wee bit early and am managing to keep my powder dry here. We'll see... Things are doing their pre-lunch suck in as I look at this.

Looks like today might give us the day I was looking for last Friday--down, down, down with a late recovery. I am starting to feel like buying; but, have it under control for the moment. All the gloom and doom is starting to get to a lot of players. Every metric being quoted is a bearish one and that's great for the contrarians.

9/8-9 Weekend

Interesting: TECD is a computer middleman. One recent forecast is predicting declining computer sales--first time since 1985. Yet, TECD is a comparatively strong stock that's done well this year and is consolidating for what could be another up move. It will be interesting to see how the duel plays out.

The gloom is up to just under the chin. Sadly, hindsight doesn't work in stocks. Seems way to late to sell here. Have 50% cash and wish it was more. OK, so much for the gloom.

Now for a bit of promise. The VIX is rocketing. It isn't as high as it was in April but it is getting there. The QQV is growing too--not enough history to understand as well. But, both are above their channel and that means we're close to a reversal. When watching volatility indexes you need to use some form of a channel or band to see reversal potential. We are there for both but neither has reached an extreme that says we have to rally yet. But, we are getting close. I can't see another week like last week beating us up. My guess is a mid week rally. I fear the rally will run out of gas pretty quickly. If that happens and we retrace, that'd be the point I'd want to put more cash to work.

The best scenario in my mind would be a flat week here with puts rising as the smart guys look for more downside. Don't see the first part happening.

9/7 Fri 1.3%

It is fish or cut bait time for the N100. Another down day is likely based on Friday sellers; but, we've rallied on Friday's too. The Comp is in better shape but should fill the final gap today too. Violating the April lows isn't disaster; not rallying soon would be disaster. Falling below the low is "normal" and can be the confirmation that the low is in place if we can then rally. But, I'm no longer even thinking about the rally as we are all too smart here thinking that we will rally. The rally has to come when we aren't the eternal optimist.

September isn't as horrid a month as many claim. It is 60:40 on declining in the month. That isn't a recipe for disaster. We'll see...

9/6 Thu 1.3%

A lot of stocks are on or near lower, long-term trend lines here. Some of them going back to near the start of the original bull market. That makes me think we are getting close to a low and less about this being the first leg of a bear market.

9/5 Wed 1%

B: PFE 38.60 S: VIA 41.20 $=51%

VIA fell through the support and is out of here. Might want to reposition a bit lower.

With 50% cash, I feel I should be a bit more invested here. One of the stocks that I made good money with when I was trading a half dozen times a year was PFE. I road it for a couple of splits and sold it at about the price it is trading at in Spring 1998. Since that time it has consolidated. I think it is time to move it into a core holding. It has a 40 PE which isn't cheap but it has show an ability to grow and has a good pipeline and should benefit from any downward dollar adjustments. It is near the bottom of an ascending channel that is close to completing the pennant formed. It had a wide day on average volume that makes me think it could resolve to the upside break. If it doesn't it is still a fairly low risk trade and I still should be able to get out with a small profit from this position. It had a similar consolidation in 91-94 that marked the strong move. With safety becoming more a concern of many, it seems a decent place to park some money that should at least beat the money market side of the account. If it could come up as another 400%+ winner for me I'd hardly be disappointed.

The broad market still needs capitulation in some form. I still believe that will end the bear market. Lots of worry and negativity out there. So much that I think the capitulation close. Yesterday was a huge disappointment for the bulls as the nice early action turned into a selloff that ran right into the close. Futures are weak. In such an atmosphere the "safety" of PFE seems a given.

9/4 Tue 0.2%

Futures look like we get some follow-through. Hopefully it will be strong enough to start a decent rally. We've had a lot of damage recently. Yet expectations aren't as low as they were for the April rally. And, we have funds closing out their year in the next couple of weeks and selling losers for tax loses. It really doesn't seem like an environment to rally from. I have the feeling this will be an oversold rally.