Archives: 08/2001 07/2001 06/2001 05/2001 04/2001 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint in 2001. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

What happened 20 years ago this month? IBM introduced the PC! The "deluxe" unit was 16K with a monochrome monitor and a tape storage system. (Nobody could afford the color unit so forget that. But we quickly added our own floppies. The only operating system was MSDOS and it was (still is?) horrid.)

8/31 Fri 0%

Today could be interesting as the trader's get out early for the long weekend.

Everybody and his brother is looking at the April low and thinking the same thing. To me that says the pop off that would be little more than a trading move that will fail. When everybody sees the same thing, you can get clobbered. It is looking like the volume is improved but not climactic. I have to think we need to see climax selling to even think about a strong rally. OTOH, we are getting darn oversold in many areas. But, we could stay oversold for a good while. How I want to play here is to play with less. And, I feel pretty close to there.

AMD broke through that "W-bottom" and looks weak as hell. And we've yet to see any selling climax that could give us hope. I expect it to make a dead cat bounce here and would lighten and get out of the remaining position in that case.

The selling of weakness was flawed--based on end-of-day prices. And we could rally here. But my exposure still seems the important criteria. The flightiness associated with this market has made me want more of the sidelines.

8/30 Thu 2%

S: ONXX 6.32 NMTC 28.17 HGSI 44 17/32 MLNM 27.63 $=57%

Interesting: TXT is a value stock that Arne on RM likes. So, I've followed it on my watch list. It currently shows a head and shoulders top that indicates it could pull back into the 40's here. It is currently violating its Bollanger band on the low side and could rally or rally from additional support just slightly lower. If I didn't see that H&S, I might be a buyer at that level. The H&S isn't quite a classic one either. Volume doesn't quite confirm but is close to right. And it has a double shoulder on the right--which doesn't disqualify it either but does make it more iffy. The big plus on the broader chart is the huge consolidation but that consolidation is a rounded top that makes it suspect. There's just to many ways to read this chart. And that means avoiding the stock and looking for a chart that's more obvious.

Lots of dueling views out there. Decided I'd protect some of my funds again by moving some recent buys back to cash. Made a modest profit on those buys--down from better levels. I am keeping the NMTC--Stop @ 26.59--just too solid a chart to abandon it here. Actually, none of the sales were based on charts. It was all a matter of exposure. IMNX being the possible exception and it is on its moving average and could pick up support there. Any one of the sales could be a normal pullback from which it could take off. It is all about exposure.

Lightened up on ONXX as the pullback in it continues. Got most of it out at that price but there's still a bit left to trade. Trying to reduce 40% here. Again. Cash looks nice at this time. Sold NMTC to lock in the profit. Looked headed for the stop. Reduced HGSI. Reduced MLNM. Not a good spot to sell but again cash seems king. I realize we could rally here but I want cash to put to work at a lower level.

Moving average support is an ephemeral level of support. I may use 40 and you 50 and then we have the exponential or simple to add to the equation. Trendlines and support/resistance areas mean a lot more to me. But a "good" stock that violates its M.A. is one I want to watch for an entry point at a lower level.

The SOX may have been getting heavy here so that's the reason to go from 3 positions to 2. And the bio sale? Well, that the rest of the portfolio of which a good part is stock that I consider core holdings.

8/29 Wed 1%

S: IMNX 16.53 RFMD 25.05 GILD 60.55 $=38%

Sold the recent buys for a small net gain. Only loser was GILD.

Yesterday was pretty bad. After 4 days of gains I guess one can avoid panic but I do have some concern. Breadth was horrid. Volume didn't confirm anything. It was a nasty day but lacked conviction. IMNX is one of the weaker looking charts in the recent buy group and may get cut lose. It has really weak money flow here. It was the fighter buy with a stochastic that looks ready to roll over. The others stocks in the recent buy look better but none have a great money stream that makes me think this rally has long term potential for them.

GDP came in a bit better than expected and may be a help today. That moves the recession fears out further. Too many trailing indicator are impacting the market.

8/28 Tue 1.9%

Interesting: NFLD has great volume and a good stochastic that could keep moving it. Impressive! 20% gain possible. Medical Equipment and Drug-other are sectors that are on fire. TSM is coming off a double bottom on volume. It is another one with 20%+ potential. But being more bullish here would help any buy decisions.

The QQV and VIX are at or near lows. While bearish it is not a crisis indicator. These indicators are more useful at the other end as bullish markers. Volume was again substandard. My guess is that we could get a substantial but unsupportable up move as institutions markup prices into the end of the month. That'd make Friday a day to sell if it is accurate.

8/27 Mon 0.6%

I have a new ISP. acer-access.com uses the same POP as my old (Earthlink) provider.(POP is Point Of Presence. For those who don't like technojargon, that is phone number. For me that is the UU net access number.) The difference is cost. $20.95 versus $12.95. Now to get the website moved and my configuration needs some work.

Not sure what the day will bring. Futures are flat. Lot of questioning about a rally here but I feel the window dressing aspect will carry the day here. Charts on my holding are a bit mixed but still no real failures.

8/25-26 Weekender

Pretty good results from the buys this week. 3 of the 4 are nicely profitable. There is a lot of talk about a rally here. That could be a negative. We are oversold to the extreme. I need to remember we were that and continued down last March. Breadth was good Friday but the new hi/lo results were very poor--mixed signals. The fly in the ointment remains volume. Typical summer confusion.

Bit of concern with the IMNX buy. It has an overbought stochastic and failed to move with the Biotechs Friday. It needs some strength on Monday or it is gone. Like the semi buys here better with NMTC being the weaker stochastic. ONXX is another one that's reached a point where it could fail at the 38% recovery level at the gap down; but, the stochastic remains optimistically oversold. Any weakness on Monday will start me thinking and that can get dangerous.

There is a lot of talk in both directions. We are very oversold. Don Hayes is making a bull market call. Nothing confirms either direction that I can find. I'm a lot more invested but could reverse quickly here. A test could be as easy as a ramp up at this point and either would only be obvious in retrospect. I do think one can buy and hold here and be healthy at the start of November. The annoying part would be the interim if you aren't right in between.

A note on Realmoney points out that all three markets are oversold in all three timeframes, daily, weekly and monthly. And, this is a very rare happening that is quite bullish. Fundamentals still blow and if we don't get some positives must continue to impact things. That's the bear call and really assumes that profits and revenues are going to continue being seriously impacted. You picks your side and youse plays your cards. The trick for either side will be to know when to fold em...

8/24 Fri 3.4%

B: GILD 59.35 IMNX 17.87 $=18%

Interesting: GILD looks ready to rumble. The stochastic only retraced about half way for this one. GILD is one of the premium Biotechs. Don't remember ever owning it. The chart shows it as one of the safer biotechs and I wonder why I haven't owned it. I don't like to buy a stock that's up 7% and the next day is a Friday. But, I think I'll just have to get even more overweight in Biotech. For the conservative folks, 61.50 is the buy point. I think I'll half vest and fill there. Of course that assumes it gets "there"...

Bought the GILD at 59.25 at 10:30. Should have climbed aboard at the first little drop. Sat and watched and gave away a buck but I'm hoping for a $20 run with a bit of luck so I can live with it. The IMNX buy is based on a breakout over the previous high in late June. It has resistance at the May high of 18.53. But it is breaking above a very nice consolidation in a bullish phase for Biotech.

Well, I did pick up some other stocks yesterday so a biotech isn't totally out of line. I do believe in concentrated portfolios...at least when that sector is moving up... And Biotech had a really great day on Thursday. Great? Heck it was the best of the lot and beat the next closest sector (res construction) by over .75.

Looking at the chart for GILD and others, they show an aggressive buy RSI positioning. RSI is like a smoothed stochastic. When it approaches it oversold/bought levels it is a much stronger signal than the normal stochastic. The RSI for many beaten up stocks was in these areas at the March-April recovery. What it indicates to me is that a recovery here could be a strong one and is making a more appealing risk reward. Of course an indicator doesn't have to rebound to overbought from this point. It only indicates that there is potential for a good stock to have a major move. Many stocks never see there RSI extreme; others are very tradable on them. The way I like to watch RSI is with the indicator and a moving average of the indicator. It then resembles a stochastic set and I can use the crossovers in the same manner.

ONXX is a bit of concern here. It is a huge winner for me since I bought it. The worry is with money flow. It trails price here. That makes me want to watch the stock more closely as it approaches the gap down. The mediocre volume of the exchanges makes it a bit less worrisome.

8/23 Thu 2.2%

B: NMTC 26.09 RFMD 24.55

3:40 PM buy. The Semis were coming back nicely toward the close. Had a big up day yesterday and looks like normal profit taking on much lower volume. The two reasons combined with a need for more diversity and the thought that semis are a good rebound candidate--although this one is linked to the net backbone type of stocks. Don Luskin made a good case for the stock though on his board. The RFMD buy is also a half-weight buy. Had a good call and may be out of the woods as its big customer (NOK) is ordering again. Great semi with a telco bent. One went out higher the other lower for a small net gain--I'll take it...

Finally we get an A:D ratio that looks ok. But the High/Low is still weak. The wall of worry seems in place. Been a while since anyone used that term. Instead it was just another bear market effect. Look we had the "summer rally" and the only way to see a rally was to look at the charts in a mirror. So, now we approach the Septermber tank and that makes me wonder if it becomes the rally I have long looked for. That said; I am still happy having 43% cash today. But, that could change a bit.

The ONXX play is looking better here. I was getting nervous and almost pulled the plug but it. Even so the volume needs to improve. Got a lower tier broker upgrade today--same one as the outrageous GENE upgrade.

The BFRE pullback still has the breakout in tact. Volume did get stronger on the pullback yesterday and is a cause of concern. If that is a cup & handle then it could approach 2.50. Moneyflow is fairly on track and not a concern yet. It actually shows a nice divergence between here and the May high. The tape doesn't show institutional yet and they were there then and I've seen them getting out. Wonder if they'll bite a second time?

CYGN looks like it wants to fill the gap and I'll climb aboard again if it does fill. But, the next stop after that is 25% lower so you have to think tight stops. One of the things to worry about is strong success for their glucose monitor. That'd make them head for some form of dilution. With the phase in starting in England, they may be able to avoid it.

8/22 Wed 2%

Geez Louise! What a market. Nothing out of the ordinary if you're bi-polar. Had a nice little rally going on and then along came Al. And Al did exactly what everyone thought he'd do. Then All used some wording that said he was ready for more support to things. Al used wording that's been on every newscast. Al used words we could all nod and say that Big Al gets it. And the market, in its infinite wisdom, turned into a school girl that saw a big spider.

So here is my fearless prediction, the market will rally soon. Why? We'll we are oversold as all getout but we were that when we really tanked in March and yes we could get another nasty couple of days and even see the "C" word kick in--capitulation. But, the put/call ratio is just too bearish and at April levels. The VIX and QQV play in no-man's-land and may need to spike a bit. But the reason is highly technical--mojo. We've always had a head fake after Al pontificated. And human nature has take the bit in this market.

So that's my analogy laden view of the market. That and a nickel...

8/21 Tues 0.8% $=43% FOMC Day

Interesting: BFRE broke out yesterday in a convincing manner. It is at 1.80 and the strong resistance is at 3-bucks. Have long liked this company but the stock has been something else. Looks like it is turning around. I want to keep a good size position in this for the long haul. What it needs here is to pick up a major account to further validate its technology. The downside risk would be a strong privacy law or an extended downturn keeping advertising depressed for a long period. This isn't a stock that will recover quickly but it is one that can, over time, return to its old high and that'd be huge.

Well, today the maestro leads his orchestra. Do we get Stravinsky or Spike Jones?

The Comp held on low volume; but, it held. We are oversold on about everything and my biotechs keep trying to rally and fail. Not a big vote of confidence! The only thing that would make the medical scene worse would be Bush converting to Christian Science. He and the Wisconsin Democrat need to get their drug review program out of the molasses it has been mired in.

8/20 Mon 0%

Next Composite line in the sand is 1852--the start of the gap up. If that goes, we could be seeing a new low. Weak but not that weak futures. Later Futures are stronger. We have the machinations of options behind us and anticipation of the Fed ahead. But, the Fed seems so discredited that I don't expect that to be very positive. Liquidity is still not in the Fed equation and this after throwing money into circulation with prodigal abandon in the late 90's. You might say they added liquidity with irrational exuberance.

The CBOE put/call ratio has popped to 1.07. That's a bearish level that is a fairly solid contrarian indicator. The expectation is the bounce from that would be a weak one. And a contrarian would like that kind of opinion.

8/17 Fri 1.8%

Interesting: PRGX shows a great consolidation as it bumped up against resistance yesterday. Could easily break out today. Great moneystream and much stronger here than sector. Stochastic still provides good upside potential.RSI still weak but could be setting up for a nice trend off a neutral base. Just might enter this one with a modest trading position--say 4-500 shares. Been a while since I wanted to play a breakout!

QLGC has a nice double bottom on a constructive day. KKD moved back into the gap down. It is getting easier to find things that look like a good long bet.

I really don't know what to make of yesterday. Certainly option expiration added effect. The morning blew out stock and at 11:30 just about everything reversed. The last half hour had my portfolio dueling with the zero mark. Happily I was able to select green for the color but it was close.

The NYSE actually was positive in breadth. The Nazdaq was slightly (.94) negative but that was a heck of a recovery after the early action. Not sure what to think about today. It could get just as western. The hope today is for a positive but the real look comes Monday and Tuesday. We are still positioned to enjoy a positive recover off a higher low. The negativity surrounding taking in or out that low in the talk about it could lead to more than an oversold rally--but there's no place to relax with this market.

Like the ONXX buy...hey, it is up...and making .57 on the day. An analyst friend called it gutsy but it really is a safe play if you are willing to admit mistake and stop out. 4.99 is the tight stop. But a good day on Friday would make it a fun play with the ability to get out whole or a bit of profit. In my book that isn't all that gutsy.

8/16 Thu 0.1% UNBELIEVABLE!

B: ONXX 5.28 5.21 $=43%

Starting to trickle some money back here. Bought the ONXX on what will hopefully become a W-bottom. Not sure but it is a half position at this point. But, it would be a full position if it were at where I sold it last. Seems due for at least a dead cat. It has a bit of a TSV divergence (Worden indicator) that makes me a bit optimistic. After all, how much farther can it drop? Don't answer that! (The 5.21 was a cleanup and most of the buy was at 5.28)

Didn't get a before the open message out this A.M. but the action, going into expirations, isn't that huge a shock. We are getting oversold by a bunch on the Bios. But, that isn't to say they have to rally. But, right here seems to late to sell them. Although, MLNM is very weak today and could make quite a bit more downside before it is over.

8/15 Wed

Well, I keep thinking something "serious" is going to happen and I still can't see the direction. Some are saying up and others down. This lethargic market keeps lulling one to sleep and that could really bite us.

I am looking at ONXX today which has dropped 5.50. Not a horrid company; interesting phase 1/2 product. I sold the last of it at 11.11--not that long ago. So, do I want in on the half price sale. The 52-week is 5. But the volume remains sturdy but not overly heavy in the selloff and I can't see it ready to bounce yet. Needs the serious selloff still.

8/14 Tue 0.3%

Really looked hard at the Q's at 40.60. I decided to pass when I looked at the volume. At this volume I am happy with my 47% cash. The futures leave us in rally mode. The VIX is no help and is dogging it in no-man's-land. Bias is too bullish to think we can have a great rally. Volume is weaker than weak. I just can't see a big general rally. Being strongly biotech here with the decline possibly ending seems the safest place to be as it could be the sector that moves against a general decline.

Looking at a lot of charts from various scans. Boy talk about a mish-mash. INTU looks like it could head for a retest but it isn't such a bad chart that I see a short quite yet. EBAY is finishing a descending wedge that looks like it is going to break strongly in one direction or the other very soon and the wedge is beyond 2/3rd and that is a bearish call. This while AMZN breaks down also making you think Net stocks resolve down Yet EBAY has some positive divergences that say it resolves upward. Sure is a lot easier to chart stocks when they are trending up...

Have a feeling that something big has to happen here. With Biotech, I feel that's an upward resolution but that hasn't come close to proving itself and could just be the dead cat bounce. Looking at the lead-in to that last strong bull market and August blew--setting up things for that fall rally. So, my bias has to be to retest soon in a deadly test to the old low that gives us a chance at a real rally that could mean 2900 Naz at year end. With that as my guess, it is hard to even think about adding to anything beyond a quick trade. I wanted to buy the Q's Friday and again yesterday. Yet, I really like seeing that cash and won't even pull the trigger for a quick trade--which isn't my style.

So, I remain confused and wandering the waste lands...

8/13 Mon 2.7%

Futures have us in rally mode and we are close to too many lines in the sand to have any downside. After all the yes/no/maybe talk about stem cells on the Sunday morning interview shows, I have to wonder if the biotechs can have much success. On the good side there, the worst case scenario seems to be behind them. George's boys sure don't like to juice a market, though. And that makes me wonder about how great a market growth President he can be.

8/11-12 Weekend

A lot of buying programs were reported to kick in at support levels which leads me to think we may have put a short term bottom in place. Will be an interesting Monday where we see if there really is a follow-through.

8/10 Fri 0.2%

Well, I said in chat yesterday that Bush would disappoint both sides and it seems he managed that. My hope is that the decision has positive carry through for all the other biotechs who are minimally impacted by the decision but participated in the negativity. Interestingly, STEM is down big in the pre-market.

This darn market won't roll over and it won't run up. But, I really have the feeling one or the other is going to happen fairly soon. I think we could do at least 400 Naz points to the upside if it resolves that way. And the downside would seem pretty close to that mark too. I'd say the upside has the better chance of taking out resistance than the down taking out support in a serious way.

8/9 Thu 1.4%

One more nasty day and it is all over. No, I don't mean the market; I mean the hot weather around here. As to the market, it is now looking a bit overdone too. Everybody has a different idea on what caused the tanking. I'm going with the beige book but that hardly seems THAT bad. The alternative to a bounce here is a drop to the 1600 mark. That wouldn't be a lot of fun. I have a hard time seeing the info in the Beige book being the impetus. It really didn't say anything we hadn't already guessed: Manufacturing is in the dumper and that will spill over. Pardon me but DUHH!

I did have one stock (CEGE) that had an up day (1.4%) and that may be the most amazing thing I came across today. If MLNM can't hold around here it looks like could see the upper teens. Lot of others in the same boat. Pulling the trigger time is close. Emotionally I want to sell and intellectually I want to buy.

The line in the sand for the Naz here is around 1935. S&P support at 1160. Dow at 10150. Closing below those would be very bearish. If it can stabilize we could at least see a dead-cat bounce. This is still the trading range scenario and could be little more than another test. One of these times the support resistance will fail and we'll move. I would much rather see the break to the upside! But, that's just me and the market never seeks my advice.

Dubwa talks tonight about stem cell research. I expect things flat to slightly up in biotech land. I don't own any stem cell companies that I know off. Of course, any might find a use for them down-the-road. I think the regular bios will follow the news. I think there will be early panic followed by some buying into the news. So I'll try to play the announcement and hope for the best.

8/8 Wed 2.4%

It is interesting that with all the negatives floating out there the bears haven't been able to drive the market down. Reverse those thoughts for the bulls. We flounder along on low volume that lulls everyone. Dangerous times seem to be getting closer where the market does decide a direction.

I am somewhat tempted to make a partial vest back into ONXX if it see 8-&-pennies again. It is the previous months low and should give support. But if that failed then there could be a couple of bucks more down and that's 25%; hence the partial vest thought. They reported earnings today and their "taking back" rights to one of the co-developed drugs seems to be a negative at this point. Will see how it trades a bit further out before deciding. If it breaks below 8, all bets are off. Then, I be think of looking again around 6ish.

We did seem to rally off the lows into the close. I was close to flat at the last minute. My printout of the portfolio showed a measly .1 draw down. But the reported close made me adjust that.

8/7 Tue 0.2%

I reduced quite a bit yesterday. Had the feeling that it was time for recovery by those stocks but support levels were taken out and the smart risk/reward was to reduce. Premarket is mixed with the Naz still down but the others up. The SOX went down from the start but held in a way that left a little bit of promise for techs.

8/6 Mon 2%

S: CYGN 8.75 8.76 SBUX 17.56 AMD 17.77

Thought about keeping some but cash was more appealing. The SBUX went out as it failed to get back to support. Sold part of the AMD. Cash is now 46%.

There is a steep decline in the CRB Index. There is a decrease in velocity of the M2 money supply.

This creates a potential to add to the slowing of business due to the beginning of a deflation cycle.

(The Fed has been a long manipulator of the money supply in ways that helped create the boom and bust cycle in the market, IMO. LTC, the Asia Crisis, Y2K all were points where the Fed forced liquidity into the marketplace. At the start of 2000 they contracted this liquidity dramatically--which contributed to the bear market experienced.) See this article for an historic prospective.

8/4-5 Weekend

If we made a movie about this market we'd need a star. It wouldn't be John Wayne; it would be Don Knotts. This is a waffly kind of market that just can't commit itself in either direction. We rallied into the closes and wobble around the next day. The market still looks good. But, good isn't great. Volume blows. VIX and the like are poor. Optimism is too good. We don't go down and we don't go up. It seems to be a healing process that has limited downside risk but a limited upside too. So I sit and wait and don't see a reason to do anything serious. Might sell a bit off though and look for less participation in however this turns out...or just stay the deer in the headlights and watch it unfold. Cash remains at almost 27%.

8/3 Fri 0.8%

What a nasty market. It was another 'semi-constructive' day but weaker than past ones. I was dead flat at the close with the gain for the day wiggling between red and green. Then, on the cleanup it dumped out some nastier numbers. For an instance CYGN ticked at 9.19 and then the order was reversed. It is another day of having to wait to see what the real close was. So I waited and Previous close reports a flat day but I'm down about my old close in the after hours. So, the .05 drawdown just gets moved forward to make today look crappy out of the box; and, it came close to doubling that in the after hours and the bid/ask is sitting on the old levels saying those prices are hokum. Meanwhile the futures are doing their thing by promising us a good start. Throw in that it is Friday and ya want to go back to bed and pull the covers over your head until Fall.

My loses for the day were in biotech leaders. MLNM and HGSI lost more combined than the portfolio made. I wish George W. would decide on this stem cell silliness. It kicks the crap out of all biotech. What is it about politicians that thinks we are incapable of deciding things without their supervision...

So here we sit with a market getting overbought without making a decent buck while one sector ramps and other tanks one day and they switch the next day. And broad indicators that say it is time to stop for gas. Not much of a reason to be this fully invested. I think we are in for more of the same--whatever that is...

8/2 Thu 0%

Happy Birthday, Peggy! (my school teaching sis)

Well, Wed was another day that wasn't for the faint of heart. Nice day for the Naz side of things for a change. Merrill's upgrade of semis. Lot of argument on the call. But the whole market continues to act like it is putting in a bottom and today was another day in that march--even if the semis are looking really stretched here. That makes we think we stagger forward more than striding.

You have to like the Naz performance. Good breadth etc.

Close yesterday spouted some weird prices that didn't end up in the daily. I had to compute the gain based on today's reported close against the previous one. The darn portfolio ran to a negative value for a second as CYGN seemed to trade down over a buck more right at the close.

8/01Wed 1.4%

Yesterday, my portfolio really sold off in the last hour. I went from a +1.5% to ZIP. Yet the tone of the overall market really holds promise here. It didn't have a huge day. The breadth wasn't that great. Volume was only so-so. Yet, the rally had the appearance of a solidity that we haven't seen for a long time. We did get irrationally anything. We just acted thoughtful and looking for some value in many areas. It isn't a rally market but it is a market that looks more capable of doing so. That isn't saying it will do so but it shows us some hope.