Archives: 07/2001 06/2001 05/2001 04/2001 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint in 2001. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

7/31 Tue 0%

I write the below and the market makes me look dumb on-more-time. Now it looks like there could be some breakout possibility. The Dow has and the volume on the Naz is better to the upside. Is this e-o-m positioning or anticipation the Fed may double dip at the next meeting? No idea...

Another day that confirmed trading range weakness. CCI this A.M. should have an effect. Looking to reduce. I keep saying that and not doing it. Time to get off the duff and realize that an exposure of 40% or so is probably the smartest move.

7/30 Mon 0.7%

Interesting: KMX has what looks like an exhaustion gap down, high volume selloff, doji candle, and a W-bottom formation. Makes it look ripe for recovery. You could run stops at several levels based on your risk profile. But, the better trade might be to wait out the morning here and see if it can see a bit of volume to the upside which would be one more confirmation. OTOH, this could form a head & shoulders top on a weak move. That'd make it a short. Just another one of those pick a direction and pray situations that epitomize this market.

Friday I really wanted to do some buying but held off. Early indications are that'd have been a good short term move but I don't play the short term very often.

7/28-29 Weekender

Well, SBUX almost made it. It close at 18.96--just 4-cents under the previous close. And I managed to beat the C, N, S, R & D indexes yesterday. Yeah, the BTK and SOX still cleaned my clock but there's progress.

We are entering the home stretch on earnings season and are still alive and even looking constructive here. While the last hour Friday wasn't anything to write home about, I'd have to call the rest of the day sterling. There's still plenty of damaged goods out there but there are a lot of constructive stocks that are showing sign of this test having been a successful bottom.

Portfolio value is roughly the value it was on July 13th. I'm down about 10% for the month. Take that back 4 extra days and I'm ahead. Could have taken the month off. Right here I take that! For all the handwringing by the media, I'm still in business. Talking to myself at times but still viable.

7/27 Fri 0.8%

B: SBUX 18.38 $=26%

Well, Cramer pointed it out but didn't add it to his portfolio recommendations so I couldn't use that as a contrarian indicator. The earnings report looked good and the stock saw 'profit taking'. It is trading at the bottom of its Bollanger and has a good stochastic--ripe for some recovery. 18.00 was support and now 19.00 is resistance. Will watch it for a while and glad for a bit more diversity. The negative is the lower stochastic high on a higher price but it did trend at that level so I called it a wash. I think it could eat the entire gap down (19 to 18.23) before the day ends although just trading decently up will satisfy.

So far today (11:30+) my portfolio hasn't traded red. Been a long while since I could say that.

To continue the analogy of yesterday, lot of stitch in the wound lets us loosen the tourniquet and prevent gangrene. Looks like we may not lose the limb. Breadth was much better but it'd be nice to have seen a better hi/lo ratio on the day. All the indexes seem to sucessfully test their lows. If we can have a postive close today there is a lot more promise in the picture than we've had for quite a while.

I held the CYGN on the modest decline. It is trying to make a stand but remains on the potential sell list. BFRE had some very large sellers. May be a fund positioning for their e-o-m reporting. A concern and it needs to rebound soon. Should make for an interesting earnings report.

Tried to buy some CEGE at 16.55 yesterday and it never made it. Nice action on the stock but I regret not doing it as a market order--one dumb penny away from the buy...

7/26 Thu 1.5%

Well, yesterday stopped the hemorrhaging.but it was a tourniquet. By that I mean it was triage and not treatment. There's no strong proof that the decline was halted. While the volume improved it was not definative. Going back above 1600 was a nice positive. Volitility hasn't come close to peaking though. It is still a market where you can make the case for either side with validity.

I'm doubting that the CYGN can breakout. If it doesn't rebound today, I will reduce again. The lower, previous high in the stochastic is making me consider the M-top characteristic and consider further scaling back. On the plus side volume is better than the last cycle. The VIX and QQV are in no-man's-land and aren't a help either.

CEGE got an upgrade overnight. Interested in seeing how it trades off that. My thought had been it could trade down to 15. It has a great stochastic level to work from and needs to take out the decline tops that mark it weakness.

Biotechs came closest yesterday to being a positive with the BTK having a W-bottom in place while the BBH managed a recovery off a slightly higher low. However, its volume was good but not above recent levels. It is another question mark.

7/25 Wed 1.2%

S: CYGN 9.62 $=36%

Selling the second level break. This was half the position which leaves me with a full position in the stock. I am thinking short term pullback from the runup. May reposition if it looks right. Otherwise, I still have a good stake in the stock and this was protection of part of the profit. Regardless, it was nice to add to cash--even though I think it close higher than this sale. I had tried to sell at 9.59 on the 23rd and failed. Why not take the extra 3 cents here? Interestingly, all the sales were in 100 share blocks.

Well, today is my birthday (61) and I could use a present from the market. But, I have my doubts. On the other hand, the last time things looked this lousy we had a rally. And those lying futures are pointing toward one. We've reached very oversold conditions and when the rally comes it should be stronger than the typical oversold rally.

7/24 Tue 2.25%

Very few stocks came out of yesterday unbowed. Fortunately, I owned a couple that did well--strictly luck Without CYGN I would have lost about a half percent.

The pattern of gap up open and a close below the previous close is a nasty pattern to see spread across the spectrum. It makes you think we could retest the April lows. The one ray of hope was the volume which was lower than low. That makes one hope for the W-bottom that we could see springing the bear trap. So it looks like 2500 or 1300 for the Naz. If somebody calls that a trading range I will smite them.

I think we would be in a much better position if sentiment hadn't shifted so quickly/strongly. In April, the talk was much like we're starting to see. Talking heads are moving out the recovery and casting doubts. Add to that earnings pessimism that isn't as warranted as the gloomy picture being painted but has reactionary impact. Anyone who thought the box makers were home free after seeing the semis reports was on something chemical. So, what was the real surprise at Gateway? It wasn't a stock anyone should have wanted to own and its holders should have been beaten down to "investor" status before now. When something still dumps big on the obvious you have to think the bear is somewhat intact.

I do think Biotech could recover here. It has some "safety" in many minds. It lead the decline and could lead a recovery. Does it start today? I don't think so; but, I think it is getting close.

We should go back an think about the euphoria of 2000. Remember that Naz 10,000 chatter? Well, we're at the other extreme here. Is the US going the way of a third world grifter? I can't buy that either.

7/23 Mon 2.7%

You just knew the huge gap up wouldn't hold. Didn't think it tank as much as it did though and at this time we are on the edge where a close much lower could lead to serious damage. Being half way through the earnings period seems a hopeful sign we can just flounder around here while they do their thing. My portfolio is doing well today. It is way off its highs but still nice at noon. That's due to two stocks CYGN and BFRE.

This bi-polar market says up in the futures. Thinks act like they want to ramp. With earnings at hand I don't see anything being much more than a headfake and I'll watch, hope, pray, agonize whatever. In other words, looks like a "normal" day again.

Pick an index and you can make the case for a major move in any direction. There are wedges and pennants galore. Below there is weak support and above there is major resistance. The wise course is liquidity here. Too bad I don't have more in cash but that's the way it seems to go.

7/21-22 Weekender

It was after hours that brought me positive. I was even more positive going into the last 5 minutes. For a day that looked like a disaster the day wasn't bad. Nothing great but not the tanking that looked like it was on the way early. If you want a duel between the bulls and bears then today was it. The Friday advance-decline line on the NYSE was 1213 to 1213. A dead-on dead-lock.

There is a lot of "final bottom" talk. It seems everybody is point at a favorite point as their line in the sand. 1900 Naz; 400 BTK...you name it and somebody has a position. That isn't going to happen. I don't know what will happen but nobody owns a working crystal ball. So, I think we may be at a bottom. Regardless of VIX and all that stuff we are oversold and there's no rule that says a stochastic or indicator of some sort has to be at a certain point for a real rally.

The country needs liquidity and stable thoughts from the Fed. Ain't happening. Last night W$ Week had Kudlow on and it was a interesting interview. Some of his points make sense here. Not to say any of it will happen...

7/20 Fri 0.3%

Looking nasty before the open as there were some nasty reports overnight. Lots of talk about the BTK bottoming out at 400 which would be nasty for me. The GENE buy of yesterday looked good for a while and then sold off again. Right now nothing is working and I've too little cash on the sideline.

7/19 Thu 0.5%

B: GENE 11.60 $=27%

Added to the GENE that's underwater buy 13% after averaging down. Still like the company and the position was underweight and is now a full position. Market is showing strength here and will see what happens after expirations are behind us next week.

The Biotech action is looking a lot like it did going into the big spring decline. It is oversold and can't move up with any sincerity. The Nazdaq was the weakest index with the Dow profiting from earnings announcements.

7/18 Wed 2.6%

I can live with trailing the BTK and the Nazdaq yesterday because of the great look the market had. Stocks that looked iffy after a lousy Monday did an about face and marched toward the sun. Ok, getting a bit melodramatic but yesterday returned hope to the equation. The futures want to test our improved resolve. The reporting techs are stinking up the premarket. And the traders will be tuned into Greeny's testimony. So I'm not looking for a joyous open but a bit of volume on the recovery from that would be nice. Yesterday, volume and breadth looked pretty good with 80% of the N100 stocks closing up.

7/17 Tues 1.6%

Another day of blood. Bios were very weak; the BTK was down over 6% On that basis I guess I was lucky. MLNM and HGSI accounted for over 2/3rd of the loss encountered.

I'm looking for a recovery pop here. But that is suspect. Additionally, things don't look too positive for a good upward move. If you aren't buy and hold any strength would be a reason to reduce and I'm tempted. The one bright note yesterday was CYGN that was up a penny but traded better most of the day. Most stocks continued their weakness right into the close. I can't see an early recovery today.

While some have numbers for the NDX at much lower levels, I have 1600 in my sights as the bottom. There pretty decent support right there with the gap, fill of the gap back at the start of the consolidation. There is also talk of BTK 400 and the BBH does look like it could take out it's 100 level. That's a real concern.

Cash is 30% and I regret that here and would prefer 50%...

7/16 Mon 2.9%

Watching for volume improvement today that is needed to have a serious rally. Weak opening according to futures.

7/14-15 Weekender

Interesting: ALV more gaps than those in Bubba's choppers. This is a MACD 0,0 crossover which is a conservative buying point on a very volatile stock. The stochastic need to hold above oversold for this one to fly. An interesting one to watch but not one I'll throw any money at.

HGSI has a great money stream divergence here. It has been improving since late May which was the high and it was bought during its decline. I might average down on this one on Monday. But that'd create and overweight position and I am a bit dubious about doing that. That's also the picture on CYGN--which I added to on Friday.

Well, Friday turned out pretty much a non-event--which leaves the "recovery" intact. Volume was light; gainers inched above losers but advance:decline volume was about as bearish. So, we had a wash. And, for a summer Friday the 13th that wasn't too bad.

7/13 Fri 1.8%

B: CYGN 8.00 $=29%

Doubled up on the CYGN early action. Interested in holding a position out in this issue and the doubled position lets me do that...assuming it is going to keep going up... I'd like to get to a 1/3rd or 1/4 position when I cash out with the hope the stocks basis would be close to a "free" holding of the profits in the trade. These kinds of plays usually bite me in the ___; we'll see...

We aren't out of the woods but yesterday was constructive. Would have liked to see more volume but it was still the day of gap ups that can't be ignored. Today is the day it can confirm. But, I'm still on hold for doing more investments. The CYGN buy yesterday was pure genius/luck and made almost 6%. But I under performed the broad market but am grateful for what I got back--considering my overweight biotechs which was a losing sector. My only sad performer was HGSI.

7/12 Thu 1.8%

B: CYGN 7.85 $=37%

CYGN was a stock I held two months ago and sold just before it ran up nicely. It has come back and I repositioned. Nice midcap in the insulin analysis area--does testing without drawing blood. It has consumables associated with it that could make for a cash cow type holding.

Everything is pointing to a reversal and a buying opportunity here. The question in my mind is how much of a reversal we see. I could make some short term entries if the tape is looking dry. Longer term I am thinking reduce.

7/11 Wed 0.2%

I didn't expect the strength of the move and you have to honor that--even with the very weak volume A quick/deadly rundown here won't shock me. I should lighten up more here but it would be selling serious losers. Even so, it is tempting me to add to cash. If the volume had been stronger I'd have done so yesterday.

The world is screwy here. Lots of talk about a spreading recession; yet, one of the bright spots yesterday was the Big 3 autos. How you can make both cases on the same day is beyond me. The consumer is supposed to be getting nervous and the autos gap up and housing issues are positive. If anybody know the answer to that one I'd love to hear it.

If I weren't always gutless at these pullbacks I'd add to a full position in AMD here.

7/10 Tues 4.6%

S: QQQ 41.111 ONXX 11.11 $=45%

Bloody day today. Pain took over and I closed the QQQ's as the Composite dropped through 2000.

There are times where my idea of charting doesn't work. At no time does that seem more apparent than right now. The market is 100% emotionally driven in my mind. The Friday selloff was not a normal selloff; buying yesterday meant little. Trying to make something out of it is beyond my kin. I read the "experts" and they seem as confused as I do with their last remark based on what they saw last too.

Monday's action was predictable from the overdone drawdown experienced on Friday. The question is how sustainable is the rally from it. I fear a dead cat bounce. Yet we are at a point where (3 months ago) we saw a good rally. So, where to from here? You got me. Breadth on Friday wasn't horrid; and wasn't good on Monday. Things like employment numbers suck but we are looking at trailing indicators. Summer rally? Again, you got me...

7/9 Mon 1.5%

Friday was bloody and seems overdone. Going to watch the early action and then make some decisions. About half of Friday's loss was in AMD. Looks like a safe stock to own for another 90 days...

7/6 Fri 6.9%

S: ACI 25.80

Protecting one of the stocks with some profit here. Will sell more later in the day as the draw down seems to be overdone in the first hour. The ACI has taken out the gap support and could be setup for a decline. I looked at my watch list about 45 minutes in and there wasn't a single stock trading up.

Well, yesterday was not the day I was expecting. If I had I'd have stayed with the market. As it is, I missed selling the Q's--which was dumb. AMD warned today and it is an overweight position. I was obviously nervous and rushed over to Thompson to see how it was trading on instinet. Darn thing is bid around yesterday's close with super buy messages predominating.

7/5 Thu 2.5%

Futures weak; not expecting much movement for rest of week but would love to be surprised. We need an up move but we need it on good volume and I don't think that's possible for the rest of this holiday week. 3.5 days of trading have given a lot of folks the chance to play hooky.

Biotechs are lower in the pre/post market. Nothing noticeable. Standard churning from the look of it. Europe was weak yesterday. Dew's stronger performance is showing greater weakness in the futures. Naz down moderately. My guess is the traders will see bargains and take some in early. A day like Tuesday wouldn't surprise me. My longer term guess is we flounder along without a big move in either direction--yuck!

7/3 Tue 0.1%

The early holiday fireworks that started last Friday hopefully finished in yesterday's rather boring tape. HGSI sold off into the close while little CEGE ramped. Much of the idiocy on Monday probably traces back to Friday with the Russell the big loser. It was diverging markets time again. The Nazdaq looks like it is running on fumes here and seems to be confirming trading range.

7/2 Mon 1.1%

As I said yesterday, I just want to watch most of the day. Futures are flat at the moment. My view is we'll see a good week if we don't see serious warnings/reports. Things got so negative in many places that a rally could be a nice move. Still a huge amount on the sideline and a good move would drag a bunch of it in and drive out the weak shorts. HGSI's expiration news seems to now be in perspective as a win for HGSI and the conference call should give it a real pop. Some idiot just bought 200 shares at a 1.75 premium in the premarket.

If I find something I can't live without today, I'll do it with proceeds from selling. Feel a bit too fully invested as it is but the QQQ overweight position lets me pullback pretty easily if I feel the urge.

7/1 Weekend

Well, I guess we need to think about the short week in context of last week with the shutdowns affecting prices in silly way. It was Monty Python's sill walking all afternoon Friday and the extension to the trading only exacerbated the problem. I think we have to ignore most of Monday. Any investing should be held off until very late in the day, IMO. It may be a bonanza for the day trading fraternity though. But exciting like in Russian roulette. See 6/2001 above for Saturday's thoughts.