Archives: 06/2001 05/2001 04/2001 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint in 2001. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

6/30 Weekender

Fri results: 4.1%

Well, I checked in this morning and after the fiasco the results were the above.

Welcome to NAZDAQ trading--a third world exchange.

Sorry Bwana, but the elephant stepped on the abacus. As soon as we can restring the beads we'll have trading back up.

6/29 Fri 3% or 3.5% or 3.75 or 4 or you got me but I think it is nicely over 3%...

All depends on the second you try to figure out things. The Nazdaq is leaking weird quotes in the "extended period" like a sieve... The Naz was down over an hour and extended trading "sort of" for an extra hour.

$=7%

Great out the gates; faded in the backstretch. We gave back a lot of our optimism toward the end of the day. It'd be hard to stay as optimistic as I was yesterday. But, yesterday was a bit weird. I feel the MSFT halt shook the market and may have lead to the sell down. The market was very loggy in that 2.5 hour period.

I have thought we could trade to 2900 at some point and possibly see 3200 before the end of the year. After yesterday's so-so performance that you have to couple to the trading range scenario, I'm thinking 2900 is doable as the high for the year but I doubt we move above that level and will get a correction from that level before another good move. That makes me want to hold here but look to return to 40-50% cash at the top of the trading range.

I do have a caveat about the lowering of goals. We are at quarter's end and can't tell just what temporary pressures are accounting for things like yesterday's late weakness. We could--remote as it seems here--break out of the trading range which puts me back at the old numbers.

6/28 Thu 3%

What a great day. Greenspan blinked a bit and the market rallied off what might have been taken very poorly at an earlier point. Only one (the last) announcement was as well received and that one came in the context of a rally happening ahead of the 50 BP then. Some of the panic seems out of the FOMC and I think that will be the theme going forward. Some of the pullbacks have been worse than I'd thought; others were less. So on average I think my holdings are intact. I want to look at things next week and possibly reposition some things.

6/27 Wed 0.6%

A day of probable headfakes as we wait for Big Al's gift. I still think 25BP would be stronger than 50 if there were the proper commitments made. But, I don't think the market will agree initially. Frankly, the FOMC has been a coward all through the ups and downs in the rates and I don't think they will rock the boat and only go 25. There is a lot of talk about the loss of effectiveness by their rate manipulations. If that is the case, then why did they affect the markets so severely in the raising cycle? There's so much analysis around that it is all worthless.

6/26 Tue 0.1%

Well, the Fed is at their crystal balls forming the claven while AMCC and MER try--probably successfully here--to wacky the market.

On the ACI buy, where do you climb aboard a rocket? I am a bit dubious but this is a reasonable pullback point with a reversal signal. If it doesn't hold it has some support in 20 area and again at 15. So, it needs to hold the short term low or it out the door.

Don't want to forget that we are oversold with window dressing for quarter ending a distinct possibility here.

6/25 Mon 0.8%

B: ACI 23.60 $=8%

Bought just before the close. Upgrade of a good mover that's pulled back. Bush play. Their coal accounts for 6% of the nations electrical output. The secondary offering looks absorbed here and strengthens the stock by getting their lending down to more reasonable levels.

6/23 Weekender

Well, Asama Bin Laden sent the fleet to sea and sunk the market as concerns about terrorist activity caused the major losses late in the day. But there was already some disappointing action in the drugs with problems coming from MRK and SGP. Traditional drugs don't seem to provide the "flight to safety" that many thought. Banks also weighed on the session and seem the real problem.

Bonds continued to price themselves closer to a 50 B. P. announcement next week. I really feel 50 would be more negative than positive. It says things are even worse than we thought as the Fed gets us closer to Japan's zero interest rates. The Fed doesn't have that many 50-caliber bullets left in their gun! I guess that one more big blast isn't the end of the world but it should raise added concerns. At this point it would probably be best to get the 50; but, doing so really would make me nervous about the upside potential here.

Seeing that I overweighted the QQQ, I'm likely to get light there going into the meeting. And I will think about doing the same to stocks that I'm heavy on in the portfolio--MLNM and AMD.

6/22 Fri 1.7% .8 late on the above comment

With everything so negative and oversold, we still have an early negative futures market. Volume was pretty good but the last hour selloff was also. Everything points to a trading range but we are at the bottom of the range and struggling. Hard to call anything and things are negative enough to have a really decent rally; but, do we get it from this level is the $64 question. The buys yesterday are mixed with the Q's down .50 from the buy but still positive on the day.

6/21 Thu 1%

B: AMD 24.20 QQQ 43.85 =$=18%

Should have stayed with the QQQ's but I didn't and now am now back in at a premium. Overweight buy. But we need a good day for it tomorrow to confirm. I held too much cash during the last rally and am trying to work this better. I think the QQQ can get to 50 here.

AMD is on support here with a consolidation and on it's 50 day MA. There are a lot of negatives on this stock circulating and worry about pre-announcing. But, it is still a solid competitor to INTC and gaining share. The doji yesterday was on volume and seemed to mark a bottom. AMD is now a full position.

Boy it was nice to have to go looking for the Green color on the palette. It was only two days of red but it seemed like a lifetime. The action was much better and they bought them into the close. The Q's are about right back where I bought them--darn, I guess.

6/20 Wed 2.2%

Yesterday I was more optimistic about the short term than I am today. Yesterday didn't seem very constructive and I'm not expecting a decent upside here. I think we could correct into the Fed meeting of next week and then see some rally but it doesn't look like it has as much potential as it seemed a few days ago. All depends on the action here. If we can churn, it could be fair. If it corrects strongly it could be another brief runup from a strong oversold condition Either one gives less potential than we might have expecting. What cannot happen here is a new low or I'd see any recovery as a probable continuation of the bear market. With that said I remain optimistic for the next 10 day period.

6/19 Tue 1.2%

B: QQQ 42.90 $=27% S: QQQ 41.21 $=46%

Failed breakout. Sold a half hour before the close as it was still descending. Rallied slightly into close though.

Bought the pullback; dropped a bit more and then rallied and I am up at the moment

Well, yesterday blew; after the nice kickoff the team fumbled badly. Early indicator in the biotechs was HGSI which showed early weakness. Futures are up big going into today. So, I'm going to hold all positions here and may enter a QQQ position later in the day.

6/18 Mon 1.4%

We are at a point were we should see a continuation of Friday with a technicals based rally. The question is just how strong a rally we can see. A decent move could make it pretty strong as the negativity of last week gets taken out and shot. We need 'reasonable' warnings--not the type NT gave that shocks strongly.

Futures are saying 25BP from the Fed and if they come up stronger--which I doubt--that could surprise this market on a temporary basis. The Fed get credit for quick moves in the markets but their real effect is months out. My feeling is we will not do as well as I thought going into years end. I think we'll see 2900 for a high but won't see the 3200 I was talking up and may not see 2900 at year's end--but it should be above 2700. The thing we do need is a modest (<50%) pullback) from whatever run we get here. This consolidation has been constructive the pullback is showing up as overdone last week; so, we just might get our wish.

6/15 Fri 1.4%

B: AMD 28 27.41 MLNM 33.59 HGSI 65.25 $=41%

OK, so I see the move and climbed aboard...what can I say...good oversold/short rebound here. The AMD was important as I'd completely closed out the position. The others were add back to previous levels.

The only thing good here is that I am 58% cash. The market has really shown weakness...duhh... But, I can't help but wonder how much of this is related to options. The bias with expirations has been to take them down for many months. A real rally wouldn't surprise me that much on Monday. With that said, I'm dubious and have enough exposure here.

6/14 Thu 2%

Well, it was the tale of two tapes yesterday with a bullish morning and a weak afternoon--all of that on lousy volume. I again lightened up

Biotech is a really mixed bag. Some very nice trenders like CEGE and a lot of consolidators and overbought stocks portending weakness of some kind. My thought is it will be more consolidation than pullback except for those that ran too far to fast. They could see a 38-50% adjustment. I'm light my normal position on most biotechs and am going to wait out the witch and reassess on Monday.

6/13 Wed

S: MLNM 34.30 $=57%

Took the mini-profit in the afternoon weakness. Looks like I did it at the low of the day...

Well, yesterday's panic got me out of most of the stocks at their low. The day was actually pretty constructive. That said, a lot of stocks damaged support levels and appear weaker on their daily charts. And many stochastic still need to heal. All that calls for a mild to moderate pullback here. But, the next couple of days are at the mercy of the triple witch. The guess is that stock could pull back to lower support levels as earnings pre-announcements shake sectors.

I've owned some stocks of late based on comments on Real Money. That isn't my usual way of operating and they've generally looked too weak for the short term. However, the thought was to have a longer term view. Hard to do in this kind of a market--for me anyway.

The MLNM buy was based on the W-bottom that's there. It had been an underwater part position and the buy improved the basis and brought it to a full position. Part of the buy was a knee jerk reaction to my selling so much off early and seeing the rally. MLNM had a nice daily. Not sure how I'll handle the new shares but could look to book some profit for a change. GENE is the stock that's gotten to me here and probably is too big a part of my thinking. I've liked the company for a long time and expected/hoped for a consolidation but this pullback isn't quite as gentle as I'd been hoping for.

6/12 Tue 0.8% post selling/unadjusted

S: AMD 29.05 ODP 8.78 ANDW 17.65 HGSI 63.00 TXT 58.25 B: MLNM 33 7/16 $=57%

Repositioning on this decline. Raising cash for a better day. Mixed emotion here as the look is overdone. But confession season is on it's way. Will consider adding back later in the day on the worst for a bounce.

Last Friday I tried to buy the HGSI at the close and throughout Monday I was grateful that it failed as the order got on the Datek system 7 seconds after the close. So I logged on late Monday after seeing a trade confirm arrive in the late afternoon mail and there it was. The market order was filled on Monday. Talk about P.O.'d; but, I was the one at fault by a rch... Dumb and expensive move but I'd have owned it on Friday. Thing is I'd have probably sold/reduced on Monday as I was trying to buy on the late selloff and pop a buck or whatever.

Triple witching should add to the week's volatility.

B: HGSI 73.04

6/11 Mon 3.3% (.9 due to above)

As to the direction for this market: you got me... I am thinking yo-yo.

6/8 Fri 1.3%

S: CSCO 21.05 HGSI 75.25 F 23.89 ONXX12.04 12.05 $=45%

Interesting: ANN good chart moving against the sector negativity. Seems to be a lot of that in retail. More rotation toward secondaries as mentioned below.

Sold the HGSI as it ran up; could have made another 60-cents or so but the trade is looking better here. F just didn't do the dead cat bounce I was expecting and it is gone. Should have sold the GENE at the open; now I'll ride it toward the close and probably dump it. Reduced ONXX by about 1/3rd.

I don't usually trade the pre-market but the CSCO went then. The JNPR news made me want out. It could come back and get me the very small loss back or such but with this kind of climate I felt grateful to be out. A few minutes later I could have been out with a few cents profit. I'll give that away to be out of the fight.

The Biotech yesterday did an internal rotation from the leading issues into the secondary area. Makes me think we could be approaching correction time. But, I am looking out a week or two for that to happen. That's getting suspiciously close to the FOMC meeting which doesn't seem to be a catalyst to gains in my view. My thinking is to start getting back toward 50% cash by then. And, I am looking for more diversity.

I should also note that a lot of stochastics are making lower highs here as the price makes higher highs. That isn't a good sign and indicates things might be running out of gas.

Wondering if today will be another one of those stronger Fridays that we've been able to come up with...

6/7 Thu 1.5%

B: TXT 60.01 S: AAI 10.91 $=23%

Bought the TXT--small position. Sold the AAI which broke again under 11 and went further down. Not a disaster but probably should be able to find a better play.

Well, looks like the open will be down a bit. Yesterday was pretty much a non-event. No read in anything. While the VIX shouts an end one must remember that it is much better at calling the other end than it is here.

6/6 Wed 0.5%

B: ANDW 18.73 CSCO 21.11 $=22%

Bought the ANDW too early as it hit its first green bar with volume. That ended up wrong on the macro front. Added the CSCO about 1:30 as the market came back. CSCO had a gentle ramp from its low going for it. Both are in the category of trades at this point.

Its just about impossible to find something not to like about yesterday While volume wasn't huge for the Nasdaq; it was much better than Monday's volume. Biotechs were one area that did have the volume. I run a 2xVol and up list and had a lot of my portfolio make an appearance. Nice!

Looking to add to Biotech today. Probable stock is TKTX that just broke above it resistance and had a huge last hour. It is one of the few that hasn't quite run too much to buy.

But, the general market needs to confirm this as more than some of Al's brand of exuberance.

6/5 Tue 2.5% $=32%

B: ODP 8.86

Interesting: Two interesting Biotechs yesterday: GNTA and PARS. The one ran too much to buy but the other has some potential still. The other has to be watched for a pullback

Opened a very small position in ODP as it is up slightly on volume. Looks like it might have found a bottom. Looking for a bit more diversity.

Well, I couldn't stay out of GENE and so far it is working. I am gambling a bit of profit here but the premarket has it up to 15.25. HGSI is up 2.75 in the premarket. Bio looks jiggy but the pre is a fickled lover.

Yesterday bored everybody on the weakest Naz volume of the year. It is the kind of consolidation that frustrates many but I love the action here and am looking at a Naz stochastic that is now oversold. There is potential here.

6/4 Mon .4%

B: GENE 14.84 14.52

Should have bought it earlier; wasn't watch closely enough. Have another bid in lower. Smallish position but at least I'm back in at about even on the last sale. Overall it is a cost saving position. Got the second fill.

Everything looks ready to follow through from the nice Friday. Good breadth but poor volume. Volume seems the short term key here

6/1 Fri 1.5%

$=43%

Are we overbought or what? I thought about that this morning after the nice and somewhat unexpected move yesterday. Helene on the street says yes but getting better. I went looking at stochastic on both weekly and daily charts. The short term stochastic in the daily charts is very close to oversold. The longer term is decline off overbought but is at a recover level potential. The weekly's stochastic is barely off oversold. What does this mean? It means we could rally but aren't in the very best of positions to move higher strictly based on an oversold rally--that'd be a major rally that'd make me want to play it.

Yesterday, was ok in just about every indicator but sold off late and the futures are off this morning. We've made a nice little W-bottom here and have a short term stochastic that says we're set to rally. Big cahuna today is the unemployment number that's due out in about a half hour. That should set the direction for a summer Friday. But a weak down day wouldn't mean as much to the scheme of things as an ok up one would.