Archives: 3/2001 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000
Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint in 2001. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.
3/31 Weekender
Well Friday gave me 6th day in a row of gains. I feel more out of the woods than I see for the market as a whole. The one day would have been a looser if it weren't for BFRE...but, what the hey...
Friday, I found the action at 11 and there abouts terrifying as the Nasdaq sat on last level support that could have indicated another bloodbath. We aren't out of the woods but I am feeling much better. The breadth is much better here and should lead us higher. IBM is the DOW at this point, IMO. If it doesn't warn, the Dow will prosper.
3/30 Fri +3.8%
Well, can we see another Friday rally? Sure would not surprise me. Most things (including the Dow) retain the look for continuation of the recovery. The last couple of disappointing days weren't that disappointing. The Naz looks the weakest of the three. If it fails here the target is in the mid-1500s. (Ouch!) Biotechs are a mixed bag but seem strongest.
Last two days watching the portofolio value was almost identical with mid-day highs followed by declines. However, there was some nice recovery in the last minutes yesterday that wasn't there the day before.
3/29 Thu +.6%
Interresting: ERTS ATVI could be a paired trade with ERTS the long.and the more extended ATVI the short.
Still thinking we'll see window dressing efforts. And, that could be a strong enough impetus that we would have a follow-thru on that strength into the following week. If that should happen, this would be the tradable rally that I had thought would occur.
Yesterday, I would have been down except for BFRE--a sick holding that rallied strongly.
3/28 Wed +.2
Good move for the Nazdaq that looks very bullish. The "competition" from the Dow and OEX is at a point of resistance that should pull back here. Question is does the Composite move against the other two averages if that happens. Things look strong in my Biotechs and I'm hoping they can counter trend if weakness happens. The CMCSK is working but should follow the broader trend so that's a watch here. And the futures blow!
3/27 Tue Gain 1.6%
B: CMCSK 40 5/16
Bought the CMCSK in the pre-market. Not my usual method but I like it here. At the moment(just after the open) the buy is working.
Thinking about trying to buy back into CMCSK here. Looks like it is working off the bottom of it's cycle and has a tight stop loss that can be used.
3/26 Mon Gain: 1.2%
S: AMD 28.49
AMD looked like it wasn't going to get above the resistance and need to retrace. And, the tape sucked so it wasn't a hard move to want to lighten up. The long side confirmed nothing so far today; praying for a good close...
Well, we are going into the last week of the month with the early indicators saying a plus opening. Friday certainly broke a chain of down closes that have been the tell for the next week. Volume was promising. I am back below 50% cash by a scosh and may put some money back to work today. Want a look at things around an hour in. Would be likely to buy up the Datek account balance and let the "long term" bias in the Waterhouse account remain mostly cash.
The Naz needs to move above 1940 and hold to make this a real rally.
3/24 Weekender
Haven't done a weekender for a while but have to comment on the week. Thursday was a sell climax but only of sorts. Yes, the volatility rose to a high. But, the put/call ratio wasn't as strong as a "real bottom" should be and that leads me to conclude that this is just "a bottom" but I do think it is one that can be traded. The volume has been strong and seems more than the short covering pops we've seen so briefly. So I'll probably add early on Monday if the tape is willing. I'm almost 50% cash here so the Friday gain was a hummer--and could have been a double digit one.
We had 7 consecutive weeks of Nasdaq decline. This week was the first up week at 2%. My portfolio didn't fare as well and went out down 2%.
3/23 Fri Gain 6.5%
B: AMD 27.90 (two buy average)
There are so many positives on the various indicator that are extremely bullish. EMC and CSCO are examples of strong indicators in techs. MLNM and HGSI are strong in Biotechs. Even a boxmaker like Dell is looking jiggy. And AMD is already a standout tech. For the short term player it looks really promising to the long side. Probably Monday or Tuesday for those looking for more confirmation. Have to think the risk:reward has moved to the long side here. TKTX (bio) has a big divergence.
All that bullishness and I still think that all we have a trading rally but I'm thinking a substantial one.
BFRE looks like it put in a Climax selloff here. I probably should have kept it but I only sold < 20%.
3/22 Thu Loss 2.9%
S: BFRE 1 1/32 CMCSK 41 15/16
Closed CMCSK as it is very iffy at this level given the market tenor. Reduced BFREE back to earlier level
Yesterday there was a rumor that a Biotech Hedge Fund was closed and caused the major decline in the Biotechs.
3/21 Wed Loss: 3.5%
When does Al's tough-love turn into sado-machasctic glee? My guess is either Composite 1720 or 15 200. And he's going to need some wild piece of data to come to another 50 BP reduction and that won't be soon. So, do I sell and take big losses here or wait for the rally from what looks like a much further damaged position? It is looking like I'll go with the later. But it is going to be a painful situation.
On my latest kick of following a TSV (Worden Proprietary Oscillator) linear regressions, the biotechs I own are actually improving and give signs of being ready to move higher. Most remain in congestion--even after yesterday's bloodbath. That's why I'm ridding things out. But MLNM has formed the first two pieces of a H&S top that would take it to $8 dollar area that is also good 1998 support. And that is scary.
3/20 Tue Loss 5.3%
Great late rally. Was it short covering? Very possible. It should be an interesting day going into the announcement.
I have OmniTrader. Don't use it much but it comes up with buy/sell signals on its own. It has gone from sell to buy on a lot more stocks. Seems to be a fair reversal signal for the broader market. Am looking for a real rebound here but again as a trading rally. My look at old bear markets shows that there is typically a good recovery cycle off the first major bottom that is then revisited months later. However, the recovery is 2-4 months on length and quite tradable.
On the short term though we are at a 50% retracement level off the 15th's high. That'd make a retrace into/at the fed results a likely spot to retrace. The key being the old low. Making a higher low then would be a positive and should lead to the rally I was talking about.
3/19 Mon Gain 4.6%
B: BFRE 1 11/32
Note I'll stick on the monitor: IT IS ALL IN THE VOLUME, STUPID!
Filled back up to old levels on BFRE with this buy; had sold that amount at 2 3/8 earlier.
Well, last week was deadly, just deadly. Tomorrow, Al weaves his magic. Will it be making Wall Street disappear? He's gotten pretty close here. This will be the 3rd ease and is rumored at 75 basis point; my feel is even that needs to surprise here to have much effect and that we get 50 and that takes us further down. The Naz could hit the mid 1700's and not be a big shock and the Dow looks vulnerable for a 1000 point drop.
A year ago I had enough money to retire. Today it is enough to maybe survive. What a difference a year makes.
I wasn't expecting a great day on Friday but I wasn't expecting the tanking that showed up.
3/16 Fri Loss: 4.3%
On the good side banks were good while the rest had promise but sold off through the rest of the day. Ouch! Well, we get out of expirations today and Monday starts another week. Things have gotten negative enough--except for pockets of over optimism in the media--that we might actually see a rally. But, I don't expect much. 2600 Naz might be possible and I keep waiting for an out on some of this stuff while it continues to deteriorate...
3/15 Thu Gain 1%
Was up over 3% at noon. Slowly faded and closed weak into the last minute where they bought some again.
Well, overseas is helping and we should open strong. One scenario has the end of most expirations effects after yesterday. Hoping that the late tank yesterday was that effect.
3/14 Wed Loss 2.63 (Last minute took it down from 1%)
Looks like it is going to be a 1 day rally. The futures are tanked. More pain ahead.
3/13 Tue Gain 3.4%
Nothing good yesterday and the 4th down day for Biotechs. Even MLNM on the good news finally gave in. The GENE trade managed to stay above water. The Naz has lost 3000 points and that translates to 4-Trillion dollars. At times it feels like they were all my loss...
On the good side, my lake is opening up. Spring is at hand. On the bad side the dive yesterday didn't have the volume you'd want to see. We are still holders.
3/12 Man Loss 4.7%
B: GENE 6 15/16
Buy when the blood is running in the streets, right? Added some GENE back that I'd sold off higher. We shall see. Lot of stocks and the Comp are at 1998 support levels or very close. We could rally from here. Again, looking at it as a chance to lighten up again. Am back down to 1/3rd cash.
Another week until Big Al supposedly does his magic and things really suck. The effect this gnome has had on society boggles the mind. We're irrational either in our exuberance or pessimism according to the green one. Wish he'd make up his mind.
The banks are looking stretched and weak here. I'd own some earlier and made a bit. Glad I don't own them here. Biotech should get some pop off the MLNM news. That seems a validation of the biotech arena that has been missing or weak for some time. Be interesting to see the close with Abbott taking in 50-mill in their stock then.
There's a site you should visit: Mises Economist have some telling comments on Mr Greenspan--do a search
3/9 Fri Loss: 2.1%
3/8 Thu Loss: 1.1%
S: VRTX 39 5/8
Bad day for my Biotechs but a low volume bore for most of the market. It will be interesting to see what the YHOO impact is on the market. Have to figure my BFRE gets clobbered.
3/7 Wed Loss: 1.6%
Interesting: HGSI and MLNM--two stocks I hold. Both have consolidated above a gap up in a nice way. HGSI is the more interesting as the consolidation runs into the upper and descending trendline. A break up here could be quite bullish and make me think it has seen the worst. The negative is the V-bottom on this stock. The positive is that it is consolidating in a range that goes back to January and could be a base for an actual recovery. CMCSK (I hold small position) is poised to move and looks like it could put on $10 if it can confirm here. Will think about adding on volume or a couple of bucks higher with a stop instituted at break even. It made it's MACD 0,0 crossover of the slow indicator today.
What were the 3 best performing stocks on my short list of stocks I own/owned. Yup, the 3 I dumped the other day. So I under performed rather dramatically. This is a broken record for daily charts. As we rally, tank, rally with a good close with remarkable regularity. But nothing is normal in these kind of markets. It is my hope we exceed the pundit values an oversold rally. We've a lot of overhead resistance to try for and probably need to retest or breakdown in the process. If we could take out a resistance level it might shorten the pain.
Concerning my hindsight selling too soon: Have to think this is a short squeeze and little more. Don't see it as sustainable but do wish I'd guessed better. They'd all violated an kind of support and could again. I'd get a whole lot more bullish if they don't.
3/6 Tue Gain: 1.1%
Interesting: Dell--the move was on weaker volume but it want to rally. Has a P/E of 26 here which isn't all that horrid. Looks like it could approach the old Jan high here (~30) but it has no basis to stick above. Not buying it though!
Yesterday again sold off for me and there's nothing that really confirmed anything yet it sure was better than Friday's poke in the eye. Biotechs failed and gave tenor to the day. Banks were the leading selloff indicator. On the plus side the SOX stayed the course and had a nice day.
3/5 Man Gain: .5%
3/02 Fri Loss: -1.4%
It is getting seriously silly out there. I remember when something meant something--don't mean squat no how, these days. There are no tells, trends, or sane charts to view. I get paid by the market for taking risk but the risks of late are closer to the immortal soul category. I redistributed some of the exposure yesterday and am in little hurry to put the rest to work.
I like the cable stocks a while back in the interesting stocks line. It is one of those that can benefit from further rate cuts and has a decent cash flow that makes defaulting unlikely. I don't know if you can say that about some of the beaten downs and I don't just mean dot coms. Those commodity sellers to the capex builders have expanded and I wonder if they are anything more than acquisition or reorganization fodder.
That says a lot about the Feds total disregard of reality. It is not their job to destroy viable companies. Their real job is to see that there is the right size pile of money on the table and they've been horrid at that. They have flooded the market with liquidity on several occasions for dubious purpose--Asia, L.T.C's hedge fund scandal and Y2K. Then they said, "Duhh, the economy seems a bit overheated and we must address the excesses of investor and the rest of the world." That seems to be about as mature as when your sibling blabbed something to Mom to cover breaking the crockery. But, then, maybe I'm trying to do the same thing right here and point at the Fed...
Lot of long tailed daily graphs. That is often a reversal signal that could set off the recovery. Still expect a trading recovery and little more but it should be a good one with things so oversold.
03/01/01 Thu Loss 1.4%
S: GLW 27.61 GENE 7 11/16 B: CMCSK 43 5/16
Nasty and decided to add to cash while GLW was still my only positive for the day. Reduced on GENE while there was still a buck of profit there. Should have stayed with GLW...
The futures are making it look like another baby with the bathwater kind of day.
Well, the market is oversold in a big way and it would seem everybody is playing for the rebound here. The VIX won't confirm and neither will the Put:Call ratio. We are all too 'sophisticated" for our own good. Seems 'retail' just can't panic and get the blowout bottom we need. 1900 is looking more realistic by the day.
I stayed bullish about biotech way too long. Mea culpa. But, I am more bullish today. Looking at a CEGE that had a blowoff bottom and HGSI & MLNM that just won't fill the gap and keeps looking more and more like breakaway gaps. But VRTX did fill and looks puny here. So, I'll hold and not add.
I look at the sector info and the winners yesterday came off the garbage heap and trash was one of the sector winners. I looked at the value line index (broad) and there isn't a bear market there. It is a stock picking market and I've never been outstanding in that area. I tend to only scan charts for "old friends" and that's been a BIG mistake. I'm going back to working more charts.