Archives: 2/2001 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/20009/20008/20007/20006/20005/20004/20003/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint in 2001. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

2/28 Wed Loss: .4%

S: WFC 49.64 PALM 17 1/8

Locked in the small WFC profit after it looks like no interim reduction. And PALM crashed through resistance yesterday when I should have sold.

You look at likely scenarios and think A, B, or C and get Q. Yesterday wasn't quite that bad but it sure didn't quite fit any hoped for outcome. I'd have to call it a push. A nasty push but it still seems that. It didn't reall break and the volume didn't confirm anything. A today's premarket is ignoring yesterday's decline and seeking to rally.

The fly-in-the-ointment remains the fixation on Greenspan. For a man with a single bullet in his gun--interest rates--he sure gets minute hourly attention. Rates, the pundits tell us have a huge lead-time. So why does the market seem to react on a minute by minute basis when his effect is 6-months out?

2/27 Tue Loss: 3.9%

S: NT 18.54

Should have move this one a whole lot earlier. Dumb! I said on Metamarkets that this stock is one NOT to own until there is a management change. May get a few pennies from the class action that will make another pile of lawyers rich.

Interesting: CMRC pullback buy here with a decent move up breaking the downtrend quickly. Should have a chance at taking out the 36.25 and could be added to there. Easy, timid stop using the minimum buck down or the classic 8% get you back to about yesterday's previous close. The risk/reward looks pretty good. But, given the atmosphere, I'd be a short term player. And, I'm not buying or adding to anything here. Would not have bought anyway!

Another month almost gone and this last part isn't making up for the first part. While I don't believe we are done working these levels lower, we are so oversold here we should get a really nice pop. It is a return to the techs with a vengence here. The only bit of tech disappointment is the SOX and the volume. Although most of my stocks had ok volume. More good volume than has been normal on the ups. The VIX makes me think this is just a trading rally. And the put/call ratio is bearish here.

Another gap up day would scare me. Doesn't look like it will happen here in the premarket. A morning pullback with a resumption is the goal.

2/26 Mon Gain: 4.9%

Interesting: OPHM HNZ

I am not a big optimist here but figure we rally. Taking out the low makes me think even more that this is a trading rally that will not sustain and will lead us to new lows. On the long side I pretty much think the year will be a write-off. I intend to lighten up on the tech side and only hold a few favorites with very light positions--core holding more-or-less. The Comp is on the bottom of its channel and should rally to the top of that channel which is near 2800 and change. Friday's late rally should take us there and give a chance at saving getting out of some long in better shape and makes me hope we might do a bit better than 2800 but I hope I don't overstay my welcome--as I have on so many swings.

2/23 Fri Gain: 2.8%

Don't see a recovery today. But we should see an intermediate term bottom early next week. Market way oversold by just about any indicator you want to pick. The SUNW miss should loom large today for the techs. The question is how it affects the already beaten up in the area. If they can hold, the bottoming here should show we're closs to a bottom. Same goes for the MOT affect on the broad tech market and wireless.

2025 is the Comps line in the sand here.

For a long term buy, SUNW looks awfully good here at around 18. But, you are looking at looooong term. I'd put it in something that you can ignore for a couple of years. It could be a bragging stock by then. Open a Roth and buy 110 shares.

2/22 Thu Loss: 3.1%

2/21 Wed Loss: .9%

B: WFC 48.03

Bought it for a trade. At the bottom of its congestion.

That's 3 straight down days on the Comp. And it is at or near its previous low. But, things sold of into the close and it might be saying we attack new lows.

2/20 Tue Loss: 2.5%

The holiday yesterday came at a good time. I needed an extra day to get over this cock-a-may-mee market. Thursday it gap up like a mensch and Friday it gapped down like an umlecht. (Not sure on the spelling of those...) And they weren't woozy gaps. If, big if, the market goes up I think it could take out 2700 today--which would get rid of one resistance layer. Not saying seriously that'll happen...just wouldn't be surprised if it did

Last Friday was a nasty day. but at least it didn't headfake like Thursday did.

The market has a double bottom from just 3 days of action and that is on another double/triple bottom that goes back to December. If we can rally here, that isn't a bad two-month base--of sorts. And it coincides with the congestion that goes back and runs from the start of 99 into the summer. Wouldn't be surprised if it takes us that long to work out of this.

NT is still in the portfolio. NT is now in a class of stocks I never want to own again--at least not while they retain current management. They either lied to us or are so lax in their internal metrics that they might as well lie.

I ran through the N100 stocks, sorted by price change. JDSU won the diving contest. I looked at weekly charts because the dailys were just too miserable to want to browse. There are some promises but that's all they are. I haven't seen a sadder collection of charts in the time I've been reading them. But, that said, they sure are at or approaching points of last resort that we could/should/might rally from. But, those stochastics don't say yes to that. Until those are no longer a collection of descending highs, I am not expecting much to happen beyond oversold rallies.

I am playing it, mostly, here like Friday didn't happen--would that were true. Was it expirations or just the bears reacting? Either way we are now oversold with some vengance. And are probably due more whiplash until we see some days of real volume.

2/16 Fri Loss: 9%

Off to the options race or was that the last hour yesterday? Have a feel that it was. Staying bullish on the day or at least the early part. Might lighten a bit here...or not...

Wrote that last eve before the NT fiasco. That is the only way to call that. Couple of weeks ago it was a pie-in-the-sky call by NT management. Now that the JDSU (poor suckers) deal is over they manage to figure out they suck. Wow, is that timing or what. Will sell NT soon. Question is do I pray for a bounce that I doubt materializes. I own so much that I can parcel it out and pray a bit. Worst of the damage it will see? I doubt it but...

The day's shaping up as a baby-with-the-bath-water kind of day. There will be some good buys around early. But, I'll watch that part.

2/15 Thu Gain 1.9%

Yesterday was wild...nauseously wild... Down 3 3/4 % at one point. Added another 1/4 point of profit in after hour trading. This market isn't for the faint of heart.

So, where to from here. Lots of good/bad signs. There's a real duel going on that makes me think the best we get is more of the same. On the short term this pullback could be easily broken to the upside today. The Comps stochastic is strongly oversold. So, my guess is trading rally with the 'good' rally able to consolidate without another serious pullback.

Among the stocks that rallied or were positive early were AMD and PALM. AMD has a really nice consolidation going for it here and should be bought on any breakout with the expectation of a similar move taking place to 35 or thereabouts. PALM broke above the Dec/Jan upper (and descending) trendline. Didn't have the volume to really confirm but at least is looking better after yesterday's quite bullish steady up chart and closing buyers on the days high. Lots of W-bottoms around. This is looking very attractive but I've been at this point before and own too much stuff as it is.

My best guess is this is still(?) a trading rally.

2/14 Wed Gain: 1%

Interesting: BFRE a long term play of mine. Great quarter just reported and want to catch the 10:30 conference call.

What a great day yesterday was...UP TO 1 P.M! Then the bears came out to play. I had the 8% day that I've been asking for but it ran from about plus to minus four. To see the days gain turn into the days loss is most disenheartening!

Stupid...Smack...Stupid...Smack Why am I beating myself up? Not over my losses which are respectable. I wanted to sell something (everything) today but didn't. Know what? I am more optimistic than I was. I can see divergences! But, I saw them before and they were head fakes. If the Naz had done big volume I might have said selling climax but Tuesday was another bear day and not climactic because of the lousy volume. So, I'm looking at things; trying to find support levels and sweeping up the blood from underneath the trading desk. BTW, the divergences are in the cheapo biotechs..."the leaders" don't have them. Still tempted to at least lighten up on them. But, those have stochastic that should lead to a bounce. Ha!

Comp support is 2250 and if that breaks it could do 1910. Not a great scenario; that'd be blood in the streets. With optimism still too high, it is a possibility. The Stochastic confirms that possibility. This is a nasty place to be sitting!

2/13 Tue Loss: 3.9%

Well, at least today isn't a Friday. Starting at 10 EST we get the word according to Greenspan. That will set the direction. There's nothing else that doesn't seem to be "priced in" today. We had a nice day yesterday but it isn't something to base much on. We need to break the downtrend channel and that looks like a bit of work. Lots of oversold stochastic in the charts I looked at but many of those have rougher stochastic on the longer term (weekly) view. So, we still need to do something beside be inveterate bulls. Have to feel this is an oversold rebound at this point and nothing more.

2/12 Mon Gain: 3%

With the blue chips acting even heavier than my stuff, I hope for rotation back into the flyers--which haven't flown but plummeted of late. Naz getting oversold. Al--everyone's pal--Greenspan does his bi-annual tapdance for congress. Have the feeling today won't start the rally because of that but I'll take it if it comes. I'm sitting on my low for the year. With earning season just about over, we should have less negatives on an ongoing basis.

The opening looks deadly! And, that might be a plus as we have had bull trap on bull trap in last weeks tape.

02/9 Fri Loss 3.95%

Lost the update from Friday morning. Reinstalled computer today. Nasty three days. Question for next week is: Does the rubberband rebound or break? You got me. But, we have to get at least a dead-cat bounce. The problem will be to identify the tops on any bounce.

02/8 Thu Loss .7%

There's hype pending in the biotech arena as the publishing of the genome is pending.  It will be on the net and in periodicals.  This is the finalizing of the hype surrounding the earlier announcements of CRA decoding it earlier--a preliminary announcement.  Should rally biotechs and I want to hold here into that news.

Yesterday reflected CSCO news more than anything I could identify.  Seemed like a chance for the bears to roar and they did for most of the day.  But we rallied and close on an upswing with the overnight paring a 1/3rd+ of yesterday's loss.  Looks like a covering rally but I have "a feel" that there's more short covering to come that could be the catalyst for a serious rally.

With the Globex up at the moment and the Composites ability to hold 2600, today looks promising with the caveat that tomorrow is another Friday.  Looking at stochastic here and they seem to be go on most of my holdings.  Today we need to see volume--which has been absent from the market.  So, what's going to work?  Well, with an arrest of the decline on lower volume there's a good chance up on volume starts a serious rally with a 50/75 point gain giving us that confirmation.

02/7 Wed Loss 2.2%

S: BK 54

Tired of watching the banks struggle here.  Took the small profit and grateful I raised more cash.

Well, CSCO disappointing is going to be today's negative and it could be a big one.  Have to think my NT will be under real pressure along with the GLW I hold.

Yesterday, was lousy for me--even with the gain noted below.  The first part of the day was a solid up; mid-day was a great consolidation; the afternoon was tank city as I lost 2/3rd of the morning's profits.  But, there was good buying into the close.  So there are conflicting signals.  Have to think (hope) that the stochastic will pull the biotech through.

02/6 Tue Gain: 1.4%
Many biotechs look ready to recover here--lots of stocks at stochastic oversold.  We need to rally to make recovery the scenario to believe.  Futures are up and have been better predictors of late. Couple that to the late day recovery seen in a lot of techs and I'm an optimist this morning.

02/5 Mon Loss: .75%

It is a blooded market again but it is more churning than deadly. Can't see things happening over the near term in either direction with any authority. The overbought condition needs to correct but that seems to be more sector rotation than an overall move.

02/01 Fri

Probably another down day in store. Want to hold 2700 here and look for a Monday Rally. So far this Fed action seems to parallel the last move. I'm hoping that means a rally is in store for next week. Late day activity will be a tell.

02/01/01 Thu Loss: 3%

S: WFC 50

Stopped out of WFC with a buck and change profit.

The Biotechs are looking more iffy. Question is how much pullback do we see. In the face of further rate cuts I don't think it is going to be as great as last time. But, it'd probably be smart to take profits for the short term.

Can't help but wonder what today will bring. We had some rally right into the close with my stocks but things ran all over the place after the rate cut. Seems neither bulls nor the bears could stay happy for long yesterday afternoon.

The salvation for my portfolio was BFRE which had a big day and covered most of the losses in other areas. Banks were weak on the news and Biotechs showed very bearish tendencies on the day chart. It is still a simple pullback for most of those holding though and on smaller volume that makes for some optimism. The stochastic for the ones I watch are all over the place. Some are oversold and others overbought. It isn't a situation that seems to cry big pullback.