Archives: 1/2001 12/2000 11/2000 10/2000 9/2000 8/2000 7/2000 6/2000 5/2000 4/2000 3/2000

Will try to show "interesting" stocks from a charting viewpoint in 2001. The type will vary and often won't be stocks to buy immediately. But they are 'interesting' and may show potential.

1/31 Wed Loss 1%

Minutes away from Al and I'm expecting 50 BP. If that happens I think it close to a non-event. Last 50 was a shock and we were exhuberent and then paniced over the weakness it pointed to. This time I think we've had time to resolve the downside more and will go out close to flat today. That my guess and nothing that I'm willing to commit $$$'s to.

Wishing I'd kept those BFRE shares I sold the other day; could have rebought nicely lower but didn't. 10 day chart is signaling a breakout here. If the FOMC weren't on the horizon, I'd consider adding here. But... GENE isn't looking good but think it is a normal adjustment from the nice run. All the biotechs are looking iffy but I remain optimistic into the easing for them.

Lots of cross currents here. It is Alan day but it is also the last day of the month. It will be a day of head fakes. If there is one smart move today it is probably to do nothing. But, I will consider trading the silliness that usually happens when the announcement hits. If it is anything it will be likely to be the opposite of the move 10 minutes later.

Lots of stocks look weak here. Stochastics are high. Pullbacks/consolidations look under pressure. I wouldn't be surprised if the general move here is down. But that is just a normal correction in my book and I think it is back on track by Monday.

My AMD tout of a few days ago has become a buy on a pullback play. Really looks like a hummer and that's saying a lot in this kind of a chip market.

1/30 Tue Loss: 1.58%

Just after 9AM and it is getting scary. All the negatives have left the market and the portfolio is running up. Have to think about reducing on a few stocks here. Question is when. Have to think this day is another one like yesterday but the futures like doing headfakes, so...

Thinking that today or tomorrow is a day to take some profits as the 50 basis points is probably in the mix and we'll sell off on the news. WFC looks ready to pullback. Biotechs are showing some pricing strength but volume is pretty mediocre. Probably should reduce on the runup here.

1/29 Mon AMEX and NYSE go decimal today. Gain 5.74%

Interesting: AMD--bullish money flow divergence on the handle that's forming. WFC approaching 0,0 MACD crossover with a short term stochactic overbought but the long term one is ready to rumble--having just crossed oversold.

On the very short term we are in good shape with the rally intact. There are two trendline collidiing that make me think we don't do the retrace on a serious level. Want to stay long here. The only negatives are my network plays that are awfully weak. Weak but not crushed futures but I'm really getting to like seeing that these days.

I really am impressed with the AMD chart. Compare it to other chip stocks and it comes out the sector's general. Watching it for the breakout and want to join it then. Hope the breakout isn't silly--which could be the case and leave me behind. Might look for a pullback entry, if that happens. Been quite a while since I was willing to think about pullback buying.

CEGE's doji star on Friday makes me drool for a good up day here to complete a 3 day bullish pattern.

1/26 Fri Gain .17%

I really did consider selling the GLW Wed. But was sidetracked by a sick computer and didn't. WRONG. A big chunk of yesterday's sadness was in GLW. The only thing green yesterday was my bank stocks and PALM.

We've support at the current level and need to rally here but it is very short term support and the next stop could be 200 points lower.

1/25 Thu Greenspan speaking today.Loss: 5.9%

Interesting: PG

We need a rest but I'm guessing that kicks in tomorrow. Stochastic, even in the heavily oversold sectors are starting to stretch on a short term basis. BIOM, for one, looks like an exhaustion gap. Lot of overhead resistance in the Comp at 3000. Should be taking some profits here but don't look to close positions--just reduce. I think this recovery, especially BioTech, is the real deal. But, we do need to correct. Someplace we need to start to build some better bases on stocks that have come off v-bottoms. On the other hand, stocks like NT are putting in their consolidations here and look poised--but it also has problems with a possible acquisition pending. While stocks that haven't been hurt as much in the biotech area are looking stretched. GENZ is an example of that. My bank stock are so-so and lack volume. The BTK has a v-bottom and is in it's resistance zone--failed to take out the gap by falling back from yesterday's high.

1/24 Wed Gain 2.7%

What a difference a day makes; 24 little hours ago...

Boy, it has been a long time since one of those days. Look for a strong open and pullback from the exhuberance. But, the worst seems over. Resistance at 3000 level. Good area to consolidate. Greenie talks tomorrow and may spin things the other way but for the moment I hold anywhere in this nice consolidation.

The Biotechs were so oversold that the rally here could move against consolidation in other areas. It has been hard to figure rotations--for me at least--but I have to feel it is ready to rally and support strongly those with strong consolidations like CEGE. I don't see another Biotech Feb like last year but we still could have some nice moves.

1/23 Tue Gain 6.5%

It wasn't a dull session today and Biotech came to life, finally! I was making new highs with stocks and portfolio totals going into the last minute. Very strong close!

Well, it was a dull tape most of yesterday. Things bounced around a lot though in the course of things. Again, the nice gains of the day were pretty well eaten up into the close but thankfully not all. Biotechs continue to languish and make me wonder if they will ever run--just about time the sellers dry up? Don't know and my more balanced portfolio seems to duel with itself over the last week. Part A goes up as B goes down and then they reverse. But, it's a steady but marginal growth back while I remain marginally under water for the year.

1/22 Mon Gain .5%

Weak Futures.

Installled a R/W CD over the weekend and it has made the system flaky. Trying to keep things alive this morning more than review the markets. FTP won't upload/work and I don't want to reboot because enough is still working. Darn Windows and the horse it rode in on.

1/20-21 Weekender

Interesting: WFC--on massive support / 50% retrace; AMD (short potential); VRTY buyable here.

The last hour-and-one-half saw a decline in all the markets. This may have been expiration related but that isn't a given. Could also be simple profit taking off a good week. The Nazdaq closed just above trading support of 2550. I would expect to rally on Monday if we can stay above this level.

I am pretty pumped on all three indexes here. Many are saying the Dow shows trouble and it is the weakest of the 3; but, it is at the medium term trend line and a decent Monday will move it above. The other two closed above their upper trendlines and could correct for a time but it is important that these corrections be modest in nature. Overall, I have to remain a bull.

1/19 Fri Options expiration! Some ramping cannot sustain here. Gain .7%

Interesting: DGX rebounding with volume off double bottom.

Wonder of wonders: I had a position report earnings and do the call and it was good. Lessee back in 47 that happened... :) What is important though is that we broke the downtrend. There were three BIG reports last night and all look positive--MSFT included.

The seem to be two ways to trade here. Recent purchases could be set with a loose stop to protect a major pullback or profit could be taken based on the 60 minute chart which is at an upper trend line. I did the latter yesterday on what had become too large a position anyway.

Biotech is pretty gassed here and hasn't been a real leader after looking good off-and-on recently. I'm still an optimist but not really based on TA as much as sentiment and sentiment can often overcome TA problems. They sure did that in Biotechs about this time last year.

The problem in all this is that I see two pictures. The overall bullish picture and the resistance points that litter individual charts. Some stochastics will or have peaked here on those charts and it would take something special to get a trending stochastic that moves laterally. I can't see that happening a lot on these early moves so profit taking is the smarter move but on partial positions where I can get additional averaging down on a pullback while maintain a position for those that can break their resistance/overbought status

1/18 Thu Gain 3%

S: BFRE 2 1/2 B: WFC 48 11/16

Sold the add to at 1 11/16 from the other day. Still have a good position in the stock. Volume falling off. Buy on WFC was in the area of support.

Interesting: JNJ double bottom.

Am still looking to approach 3100 on this rally. The consolidation in the Naz indicates we should still rally. Consolidations are since the 11th on the 15 minute chart. The gap up yesterday broke that congestion briefly The base of the gap is our support level at about 2600 and 2750 is resistance based on yesterday's high area. We broke the downtrend yesterday but briefly. We need to go back above it to confirm.

1/17 Wed CPI Bullish Gain .16%

What a pile of nastiness. Was up 5+% early and it all went away. Biotechs sucked!

Looks like the CPI numbers are bullish and futures are close to limit up. Today looks like it will be the confirming Follow-through day I've been praying for. We aren't out of the woods but this is a lovely clearing to hold a picnic in.

Well, I said the other day that I thought the most downtrodden of the biotechs were most likely to show strength and that seems (very early view) to be happening. Not saying it will be a steady thing but it looks like the more promising view toward downtrodden choices still holds.

Yesterday's "loss" ended up a gain of that much. I use closing prices so they stay but the aftermarket is really starting to impact things and can distort overall profit shown on an ongoing basis.

1/16 Tue Loss .75%

B: BK 52

Cramer likes this one. Not real big on the daily but the 5 minute looked ok. Nice feature is earnings are behind it. Same for WFC--an old friend--but it is trailing the gain in BK

1/15 Monday M.L.K. Holiday

Where have all the flowers gone? Wonder what Martin would have to say in these times...

NT looking awfully good here. Little pullback on Tuesday would look like a buying opportunity to me. Nice congestion formed with a more bullish pennant than it had not too long ago. If it can hold in the 31+ range it remains intact. 30 5/8 is the next lower support. Not a lot of downside here I'd hope and 36 is a short term possibility. And, it could approach 50 on a broad rally in stocks.

BFRE still seems like it is poised. Making 2 3/4 would be a huge confirm and give it a chance at 4. But, I want to remain ready to take a bit of profit. I really like it best for the intermediate term though. But, it needs to continue the move. I'd hate to see it move back under $2 here for the short term. My stop on this will be end-of-day as I mentioned earlier.

Keeping an eye on PANL but it is pretty stretched here. Want a better entry point and wouldn't be surprised if that were to happen soon. Sure made a nice run though. The stochastics are rolling over; doubt it will give a clear buy signal but who's to say what a good entry is on something like this. Kind of looking for a 50% pullback and a kick from that for an entry.

Many of the biotechs sit with oversold stochastics here that beg for a nice pop. I have the feeling they are going to be the week's hero. How often has such a view disappointed me? Really feel this is turnaround time.

Nice new page at The Street Dot Com. Visit the metrics page

1/13-14 Weekender

Lot of toppy stocks that are stretched here. Won't close out position but will take some recent profits fairly soon. How many times have I said that and remained the deer in the headlights? Well, I think I'll get either smarter or dumber here. Stay tuned. NZRO is a penny stock play that could run to 1 5/8 or thereabouts.

Interesting: (trying to be more talkative on weekends)

GENE is one I bought recently. It is breaking out from a consolidation. Target is 12. If you like volatile, take a look at TEVA which has an expanding triangle and is on a very strong support level with climax selling on a 4-point bottom and with a target that takes out the out the old high ($79) but a close watch at the 50% ($67) retracement. I was in love with ATHM and that was my 1999 stupidity play. Looks ready to recover here as it has taken out resistance and could make it to 12. I lost money on ATHM but nothing like the stupidity show by AT&T on this stock. They guaranteed their partners (Comcast etal) prices in the area of 37 or such.

Looking a bit further at GENE we see that a 50% retrace is 12 and change with next resistance about 50-cents higher. And that accounts for our target. Give us a nice little consolidation there and it is still a hold for the longer term player. But, with the more volatile stocks it takes a strong constitution to ride the 50% retraces possible. After such a consolidation (iffy) and with the fed easing we look at the same stepping pattern to arrive at the pie-in-the-sky next step to 18 5/8. Along the way we really monitor or volume patterns closely. We can see we have an ascending volume pattern developing and this needs to hold. The weak volume that was consistent throughout the decline is being broken but that isn't a given yet. The tightest stop here is in the 7.25 area with 7 a stop that gives us a bit of maneuver. 5.75 is the final breakdown that'd trigger thoughts of a short. The pullback to two days ago price is 6 5/8. Any of those could trigger during any day of trading. My stop/exit would be based on closing price because of volatility. Stocks in this category can swing 10% and more on an interday basis. It is a nasty bit to try to come up with a money management scheme that we can be comfortable with--goes with the territory. The key across the groups is the BTK and a secondary with the BBH. If they are bullish, I want looser stops. If they are getting pressure I want to tighten up.

So, how am I planning to trade on the above conjecture? Well, I'll keep a position in this stock but sell down at levels that warn and add back into future (crystal ball cloudy) breakouts. This isn't GE which makes a steady march through a bull market. I'm looking for new highs in the sector before year's end. But, I don't see a steady walk-up along the way. So, changing exposure with maintaining a position seems the only way to maximize advantage and minimize drawdowns.

1/12 Fri

Added back in the Guestbook on the home page; please leave some feedback! Let me know what you like or don't like on the site.

Interesting: PANL TDD(thinly traded) were able to move ahead during "the troubles" of last week. TDD is doing the video for x-box.

Well, I've seen at several places that the 3 up days we just had are the first since September. Looks like there light at the end of the tunnel--don't think it is a forest fire. We've approached pretty good resistance at 2700. It represents the bars of 3 different gap moves. I would expect some retracing into that level. With real buying coming into the market, I'd hope we don't see serious drawdowns but would not mind a pause. Yesterday was an O'Neil Follow-through Day and I think it is a valid one.

So, we are sitting just under the magic 2700 composite and anything decent today would turn that resistance into support. The strongest happening would be to do just that and then consolidate without damaging that support seriously. If we can do that then I'm willing to think Katy-bar-the-door...the bull is back.

The futures are up. The last two days they were down. It has been a contrary indicator and doesn't portend greatness today.

I am liking the weak sisters in the Biotech area more than the 'leaders' we've loved. I still own some HGSI and MLNM and will hold them. I added to CEGE and GENE recently because I am thinking that a 50% retrace by either would be superior to the kings of the sector. Not saying I'm right and am playing both sides but am leaning toward the downtrodden

1/11 Thu Gain 3.5% Cash 16%

S: YHOO 25.74 B: GENE 6 21/32

Got tired of watching YHOO. Should do 27 or better but I'm out and hopefully wiser. Bought some GENE with the money that looks like a better opportunity here--smack on the long term trend line. Like the biotechs again.

Globex futures are down big; looks like the betters are thinking YHOO does weigh heavily. If this is overcome, as I think it might, it would be a nice indication that the bottom has been seen. That isn't saying we rally but it does give us promise. And, if YHOO can come off the 20% down nicely as did CSCO on it's warnings that'd be the pudding.

Interesting: TR--how long until it gets to the center? Looks very buyable here for a trade. UCOMA breaking out--where going to 19.75 will fill the gap down. About 2 months consolidation base. ALOG had a nice cup and handle going into the nastiness of the week plus and is starting back up. to the handle. Seems quite buyable but volume isn't solid and the safe spot is at around 45 on volume. ARQL was one of my first picks and got eaten by the nastiness but that formed a W-bottom using the gap up day's low.

Well, does YHOO weigh too heavily on today's market? If it can overcome, that'd be a big positive. Down big last eve in after market--never a place to trade on the news; it is almost always overstated.

Lots of bullish "engulfing candle" patterns last eve--including the QQQ. My BFRE buy is one. This is a significant pattern at the end of a long move or off of a double bottom. The BFRE was off a double bottom. it is kind of like a -| move with the bullish pattern a down day for the first that is followed by one that trades on both sides of the previous days body and closes above.

BTW my goal with the BFRE is 3.25--a 50% retrace. I'm not a trader that looks for the "2% winners" in my trading.

1/10 Wed Gain 5.6% Cash 16%

B: BFRE 1 11/16

Revisiting BFREE. This is one of those stocks I think ends up a winner in the internet horse race. Advertising is down but it ain't out. Nice little double bottom congestion should make it good for a bit of a pop. Short term trade.

Interesting: Health Care area CAH etc.

Couldn't match the market yesterday. Couple of serious losers prevented that.

1/9 Tue Loss 1%

B: ONXX 10 3/4

Well, the market made a nice rally late but my overexposure to biotech was deadly. They are a broken lot at this point and don't look like they could rally...which is just the point they do it from--at least a dead cat...

1/8 Mon Loss 5.4%

S: WFC 51 9/16

Well, I can't see how things can get more deadly. Last week took me down big time. Have to ride the bronco here as I am still optimistic that this will resolve to the upside soon. Not sure if that is whistling in the dark or what. Lot of the bear calls that I have to acknowledge as good calls have switched back. Would somebody please tell the market!

1/5 Fri Loss 7.6%

Interesting: IOM WPPGY MCLD RBNC TRA (again, thin trading on TRA)

Addendum: Futures are up nicely for the Naz; short term I think I'd fade it and look to buy back later in the session.

Well, yesterday was a non-event and it was just what we needed after the run up. Today we may see things go a bit either way. Not expecting a big Friday rally but we've had them in recent months so can't rule it out. "The numbers" this morning will probably rule early and give a possible head fake to the market. Short term you could follow the trend created by the employment numbers reaction. I would think any longer term entries today would be later in the day than usual. What I am really concerned/ready about is Monday or Tuesday. One of those days needs to show us continuation in the form of a nice percentage gain on good volume. That'd make me think we've seen the significant bottom.

Naz needs to hold above 2500; the farther below that it goes the less likelihood we saw THE BOTTOM. There is a lot of bad news/earnings in the cards; the idea here isn't to rocket but to survive with some trend intact. We need to continue to see fewer new lows and reasonable breadth would be a big help. I should have more cash on the sidelines than I do. There will be lots of opportunities on the long side later.

1/4 Thu Loss 0.6%

Interesting: EFS NOVL DLIA SCTT LDG GE(proxy) Utilities should decline here strongly--also traditional drugs. Momentum names ran but should pullback and offer a much better entry.

When Al speaks, people listen. 50 basis points was more than we were expecting and sooner and lead to record volume and increase in the Naz--over 3-Bil and over 14%. We're out of the wood, right? Well, remember when the last record like this hit! Just 1 month ago and it hasn't been a bed of roses since. If we are still up next week and doing it on decent volume, I'll believe it. Otherwise, this has to be considered a trading rally. But, I'm still hopeful...

We need to take out current level which is right on the trendlines of the 15 minute chart. A retrace today would be the normal action. Taking out 2700 would be very bullish. Going back to 2300 would be very bearish and form an expanding triangle. The darn DOW still is inside the diamond. The S&P needs to take out 725.

I went long on the bank stock based on Cramer's shouting for them although he was more into financial than banks--better the dog you know made me go this way. We'll see...

1/3 Wed Gain 5.6% Cash 9%

B: WFC 52 11/16

Figured I needed some financial exposure and went back into WFC. Buying the puppy I know for a quick entry. Not sure but think we rally at least for the rest of the week. Friday I need to review my portfolio and clean out the trash. Trash didn't go down as much but can it go up as much?

Interesting: KCS UNT VTS RJF APA AD Mostly short term trading vehicles. ARQL had an inside day on the previous list. The rest pretty much reflected the day and were more ambiguous at best. Read the various articles on the site about these kinds of trades. The one to review closely is the 4-step warning that may be a warning on the chart that I often miss counting.

Yesterday was about as bad as it can get. The initial draw down made the first 1.5 hours a massive decline. Futures were halted twice and there was almost a third one triggered. The 1999 low was 2226. It looks like that scenario will play out. I cannot see worse damage happening It is also getting close to the 200-bar(week--1000 day) MA that has never been violated and also translates to the 1998 high.

The problem is we've seen such support levels in the past and were as bullish as most. Sooner or later we have to acknowledge that all this has been as wrong as it can be. With a rally here I figure we can close the year around 4200 and am still looking for the "spring" rally to carry us to 3500. Why I keep making these guesses may be subject to a mental health interpretation.

1/2/2001 Tue Loss: 6.6% Cash 22%

S: WFC 53 3/4 B: CEGE 22 5/8

What a horrid day. What a horrid first hour & one-half. And it didn't get better. Although some buying is coming in during the last half hour. I added to CEGE today. Have to like a stock that actually has a chance to close up. Dropped a buck after my buy.

Well, let's hope this year is better than last!

Interesting stocks: INTI, TRA(thin trading), PZB, ARQL, MIL

I made about the same great money for 2000 that I could have gotten from a money market account. So much for genius. Last April I was up about 80%. Let me do that this year and I take the rest of the year off.