Expected Value
Does the average poker player expect value? That isn't something most players want to talk about. Various reports say that about 8% or less of those playing online are profitable players. So, the expectations of roughly 92% isn't directed toward adding to their retirement funds. Additionally, most of those folks don't have a clue as to what is actually happening with their account. Most of us play for the same reason – enjoyment.
If you've been to the link in the previous blog, you saw some nice insider info about how the business community thinks about their business. It is a informative post by an insider and you should read it.
Bill Rini is another insider and has moved from “the dark side” of managing online business to his own rakeback system. Having done so he's explaining things in a far more transparent manner. Bill has about 5 post up that are interesting so I'll just refer you to his site. Start at William Hill on Rakeback and then follow backwards to get the cycle right.
In the first paragraph, I said most of us play for enjoyment. I'm in the 8% but it has been the odd month that did much more than let me supersize it. I've never been a person trying to move up or change for the better and score. Truth be told, my monetary goal started out controlling my cost. Well, I did a bit better than that but nothing for the IRS to stew over.
But, regardless of goals, ignoring the environment leads to failures. And the online environment isn't player friendly. Most don't figure that out. Rini has a rakeback calculator on his site that estimates online cost. I ran it as a player who played a single table for about an hour a day at .50-1 NL. At the 30% rakeback level, he would receive close to $500 over the year. That player will have a hard time making that much on his own. Whether that $500 would make him profitable isn't really the problem. It is that those who hand out a “Party, Dammit” affiliate right to some site are throwing away Benjamins. You might as well light cigars with them.
Now I worked for a site that sought your affiliation. I didn't realize how lucrative that was at first. That company – without doubt – is the affiliate king. As Rini will tell you in his rakeback area, the sites are happy to pay between 30 and 60% of your rake to them. Now 'our' joint did a bit for those clients with freerolls and the like. But, that's pennies on the dollar. Riggs told you that the average amount a site will pay to get you there is $450. Very few will see that accrue to their bankroll.
I made a lot of post saying Ultimate Bet was the best place to play. That changed. They revised the rules but I can't say I wasn't expecting it. During the last month, I got more rebated to me than they raked from me. That isn't sustainable and they changed the rules. I withdrew all but $5. I shouldn't have but leaving for a month can get me another bonus offer. I tried to get that and they even gave me a 'secret' term to use to get the bonus reinstated. The deposit failed for some reason and the next day they wouldn't give me that days secret. And, the way I got it originally was having already asked for a check that I had to cancel along with depositing. I guess the next day their bet was I'd stay without it. Wrong.
That was a hard decision on my part. But staying would have revised my advantage. I'd had a hell of a nice month. It is probably the softest site you can play but I don't draw to inside straight and that was their offer.
If I were willing to play other than Stud and Horse, there are any number of choices beyond FullTilt – where I don't have rakeback. (Remember, I am banned by choice from Stars.)
Should this mean something to you? Well, I don't know your game or goals but whatever they are is costing you decent money compared to your level of play. At low limit play, the rake is greater than the standard two big bets one can expect. The average winning player still is not as profitable as the house. That is avoidable. The money that comes back is your money but a bit of that is better than nothing.
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